Raise or Fold Revisited — Part I

You hear a burglar breaking a window in your home. You are alone. You have two primary choices: grab a weapon and try to fend him off, or get out of there and call the police. The choice of standing around waiting for him to enter and perhaps beat or kill you is not an attractive one.

When presented with danger, most animals exhibit this “fight-or-flight” behavior. To me, the poker equivalent of this action is the raise-or-fold situation. Someone has bet or raised in front of you, representing a good hand. You should either fight (raise) or take flight (fold). Staying around and hoping to survive is rarely a good alternative.

Let’s review the definition of raise-or-fold situations, as presented in the Jan. 28, 2005, issue of Card Player. The specific criteria are:

• The pot must be multiway. There are no raise-or-fold situations in heads-up hands.
• There must be a bet before you. (Obviously, you cannot raise or fold unless there is a bet, but I like to be comprehensive.)
• There must be no intervening callers. You are next to act after the bet or raise. If there is an intervening caller and you think all of the other criteria are met, you still might decide that it’s a raise-or-fold situation, but it’s not mandatory.
• You must have reason to believe that you have the best hand or are choosing to represent the best hand. If you have a draw, raising will reduce your pot odds, as you will put more money in the pot and will eliminate some players who could increase your odds.
• There must be players behind you who could make hands that beat yours. If you hold an unbeatable hand, there is no requirement to raise (and folding would be a really bad idea).

The general concept here is that if there is a bet and you hold (or want to represent) a made hand, you do not want to call if your hand is second-best, particularly when there still may be raises behind you. You are out of position with respect to the rest of the field, and therefore need to play more tightly. You should call only if your hand is very powerful or you are drawing. Otherwise, raise if you believe that your hand may be the best, or fold if you think it isn’t.

In a theme that you will see repeated here, the key is to make a decision. As we have seen, calling is simply compromising when it cannot be correct to do so.

This column and my next column will present examples from preflop, the flop, and the turn. Obviously, there are no draws on the river.

Preflop

Example 1: I took this example (and some others) from a recent book in which a professional player describes hands that he played in a series of $30-$60 hold’em games.

He holds 9-9 in early position. This is only the third hand that he has been dealt, and the player in from of him, a complete stranger, open-raises. Granted, this is a tough situation, as some players raise tightly. If so, he could be behind and drawing thin. Other players raise with all sorts of hands, in which case he should reraise.

In my opinion, calling is not a reasonable alternative in what is clearly a raise-or-fold situation. Early in a session, when you don’t know the players, folding is the prudent alternative when faced with an early-position raise. Reraising is a more aggressive play, but could work. Calling, in my view, is by far the worst alternative. If you are behind, you are taking the worst of it, and if you happen to be ahead, you are giving opponents behind you the opportunity to trail in relatively cheaply with lesser hands or to reraise with better ones.

The author called, as did a late-position player and the small blind. On the favorable flop of 8-7-6, the author bet, the late-position player raised, the blind reraised, the original preflop raiser folded, and everyone else called. On the turn, an ace hit, the blind went all in for one chip, and the others called. The river brought a 9, making the board 8-7-6-A-9. The author check-called the late-position player, who showed 6-5 for a straight to win the side pot, while the small blind showed 10-7 suited to win the main pot.

The author consoled himself that he was a big favorite on the turn, but he never should have been in that position. Had he properly folded preflop, the rest of the hand would not have mattered to him. Had he three-bet, odds are that neither of the players who called two bets would have called three, so he would have won a smaller pot. Allowing other players to enter cheaply ended up costing him the pot.

Example 2: Here is a $40-$80 hold’em hand I was involved in. I held the 10♥ 9♥ on the button. After an early-position player open-raised, two others called. I called from the button with my volume hand, and the big blind came along. The flop was A♠ 6♥ 5♥. It was checked to the raiser, who bet. The next player raised, and it was folded to me. I was pretty happy with the flop, but thought a reraise could possibly buy me a free card; if not, it would probably result in three-way action, which would be OK for my draw. After the blind folded to my reraise, the original preflop raiser four-bet, and the next player called. Had the ace on the board been a heart, I would have reraised again, but there was too great a chance that the original raiser held the A♥ X♥, so I called.

The turn brought the 3♥, completing my flush. However, the raiser bet, seemingly undeterred by this development; the next player called, so I did, as well. The K♠ on the river changed nothing for me, but both players checked, so I bet. My flush won after both of them called.

The second player turned over the A♣ K♥, and scolded the dealer for ruining his lovely hand. However, that terrible result was entirely his fault. He was clearly in a raise-or-fold situation preflop, and he flat-called, allowing others, including me, to get in cheaply. I certainly know that I never would have called three bets.

I realize that my two examples show people failing to three-bet, and losing as a result. Of course, it’s possible to call in raise-or-fold situations and win a bigger pot, as others with weaker hands can enter and fail to draw out. However, it’s still an error to give them the chance to enter cheaply.

Maybe the burglar will see you standing there and will run away, but it’s not the way to handle the situation.

In my next column, we will look at raise-or-fold plays on the flop and turn. ♠

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].