Head Games - Crucial and Creative River Decisions in Pot-Limit Omaha

The Pros: Brian Hastings, Andreas Torbergsen, and Michael Piper

Craig Tapscott: What are some of the most appropriate situations for turning the majority of your hand range into a bluff on the river?

Brian Hastings: One of the best situations for bluffing on the river is when you semibluff on the turn with a draw and get called, and the river is a blank. This is a good spot to bluff because your opponent’s call on the turn often indicates that he also has a draw, and therefore will often fold to a river bet. Be aware that trickier opponents are capable of exploiting this by calling the turn with strong made hands, but as the stack-to-pot ratio decreases, this becomes less likely. To illustrate this, if you bet the turn on a K♠ 10♠ 7♥ 5♥ board and your opponent calls, and there are four pot-sized bets left in effective stacks on the river, your opponent can very reasonably have a strong made hand, because even if he raises the size of the pot on the turn, there will be a substantial amount of money left in each player’s stack, and if you call his turn raise, the river can be very difficult for him to play. However, if, on the same board, you bet on the turn and your opponent calls, leaving effective stacks of half of the pot, you can be much more certain that he is drawing, and even with the odds that you’re laying him on the river, a bluff on a blank is likely to be very profitable.

Andreas Torbergsen: A good situation is when you two-barrel a good draw on a wet board in position and completely miss without showdown value, especially against a weaker player who probably plays the board more than the situation. A good example is this: You have the A♥ K♦ J♦ 9♥, and you pot your opponent heads up and he flat-calls with a stack of 100 big blinds. The flop comes Q♥ 10♥ 2♣, and he checks-calls your bet of two-thirds of the pot. The turn is the 6♦, and he checks. You bet again, the same two-thirds of the pot, because you don’t mind what he does either way. He calls. The 7♣ hits the river, and it’s kind of obvious that his range is weak, due to his passive line thus far. So, it’s a good spot to turn all of your no-showdown-value range into a bluff.

Michael Piper: There are a few factors that go into making a good bluff. First of all, your opponent needs to be a good enough hand reader to recognize that your play is representing a strong hand, but not so good a hand reader that he realizes you’re bluffing. Secondly, your opponent’s range needs to be weak. For example, if he raised preflop, check-called the flop and turn, and then checked the river, it’s hard for him to have even a medium-strength hand, let alone call a big bet. Thirdly, the board needs to read such that you can represent a reasonably wide range of value hands. Trying to represent one-card hands is fraught with danger; on the other hand, when you’d plausibly bet even a one-pair hand for value, your bluff is much more likely to work. Fourthly, make your sizing the minimum needed to get the job done. Lastly, consider how much showdown value you have; if your hand is good enough to win at showdown a certain amount of the time, there’s usually little point in betting.

Craig Tapscott: What are some spots in which it’s almost never a bet and almost always a check-call or check-fold?

Brian Hastings: The main example of this would be the alternate scenario of the first hand that I illustrated in the first question: You bet on the turn on a draw-heavy board, your opponent calls, and draws get there on the river. Since your opponent’s most likely hand is a draw, betting would be foolish here, in most cases. An exception occurs if your opponent may check back on the river with a weak completed draw, but you either have a very strong hand and believe that he will call a bet (but will not bet himself) or think that he may fold enough to a bet with a weak completed draw to make a bluff profitable. For example, on the K♠ 10♠ 7♥ 5♥ board above, the 9♥ hits the river, making a possible heart flush as well as several straights (Q-J, J-8, 8-6). While your opponent was likely drawing, many players are likely to check back any of the straights and possibly even smaller flushes. With a strong flush, the best play here, generally, is to bet. Against the right opponent, turning two pair into a bluff here could be a good play, but I would rarely advise doing that. This is an exceptional case, though; in most spots in which you are betting on the turn with a made hand and then a draw hits on the river, the play is either a check-call or check-fold. The same applies when there is a flush or straight on the board and the river pairs the board.

Andreas Torbergsen: A classic pot-limit Omaha river example would be this: You hold Q-Q-J-10 rainbow, and decide to three-bet pot heads up when the button opens for a minimum-raise, and he calls. The flop is Q♥ 3♠ 2♠, and you make your standard continuation-bet of eight big blinds, and he calls. The turn is the 7♦. You bet again, 25 big blinds into a pot of 28 big blinds, and he calls again. The river is the worst card in the deck for you, the 6♠, making the board Q♥ 3♠ 2♠ 7♦ 6♠. Assuming that you started with 100 big blinds, you are left with 62 big blinds (roughly four-fifths of the pot) with a decent amount of showdown value. But you have little hope of getting a better hand to fold. Even more importantly, there are almost no hands that are worse than yours that can (and will) call a river shove, given his passive line. So, this makes it a check and then decide what to do type of spot.

Michael Piper: When your hand isn’t strong enough to bet for value, and your opponent’s range is strong enough to call a bluff, start by checking. When he bets, before you consider your move, evaluate his timing and sizing and give him a range, even if you know that you’re always folding or always calling. It might not help you in this particular hand, but you can often pick up useful information for future hands. As a general strategy, folding your weak hands and calling with your strong hands works very well. Think through the hand and apply the same principles as above to give him a range: How much has he bet? What draws can he have missed? How many combos of value hands are there in his range, and is his bet-sizing congruent with them? What does your hand look like? How concerned is your opponent with concepts like exploitation, balance, and game theory, and what does he think of you? Against many simplistic opponents, especially in live play, you can happily check-fold strong hands. A lot of people simply don’t bluff, and you can expect them to check behind most weaker hands with which they wouldn’t call a bet. In this situation, check-calling is giving up a healthy portion of your edge. ♠