Preflop Raises In The 21st Century

We all know that 21st-century poker players, especially the tournament players, are in general more aggressive than were the 20th-century poker players. In my opinion, the biggest change in aggressiveness is in reraising on the preflop betting round. Of course, when the money is not deep and a player can reraise all-in without a large overbet of the pot size, all-in wagers will be done on a wide range of hands. Rather, I am talking about in deep-stack poker. Here is a letter I received on this subject by one of my poker students.

“Please look at this hand where I had a problem. I had just taken a seat in a no-limit must-move $2-$5 blinds game and knew nothing about any of the other players. Assume a stack size of about $500 for each of the players I mention. The under-the-gun player open-raised for $25 and the field folded around to me. After considering the raisers position, I opted to flat call with my pair of queens. The small blind reraised by making it $100 straight. The big blind folded and the initial raiser folded, and it was up to me. Since the implied odds to flop a set are not great, and I think his hand range figures most likely to be A-A, K-K, and A-K, I am about a 3-to-2 dog, there isn’t enough dead money in the pot to overcome that, and my “fold” equity if I move in does not look great either, so I threw my hand in the muck. He flashed 10-10 and took the pot. Do you think I was too conservative in my estimate of his hand range? After all, he three-bet an under-the-gun raiser and a cold caller. What is your view of the three-bet by the small blind? Seems to me it’s wrong and he should just call.”

Perhaps there are a few readers who are unfamiliar with my writing and are expecting an answer like this. “Two queens are an excellent preflop poker hand, the only better hands being aces and kings. You cannot fold them every time someone plays back at the raiser, or you are going to get run over by the aggressive players in the game. You may not have to play for all your money, but you do have to at least stay in for the flop. As for the range of hands you gave your opponent, you sound like you are stuck in a time warp and unfit for poker in the new century.”

Frankly, if you think and play the way I outlined in my mock answer, expect to get plucked like a chicken. As soon as your opponents understand your thinking, they will adjust to it and take advantage of your looseness. Here are a few points that I would like to make about the situation we are discussing.

First, if my student’s assessment of the range of hands his opponent might be holding is correct, a fold is definitely in order. There is a well-known poker principle called “big dog/small favorite.” It is most often used to explain how to play preflop with two queens. If your opponent is a solid citizen, then you are supposed to fold two queens in the situation we are discussing. You have to hit a parlay to win. At the start, you have to run into A-K rather than a bigger pair. Then you have to beat the A-K. So in any century, if you feel that your opponent is going to have one of the premium hands mentioned when he reraises, you have a clear fold holding a pair of queens. (Of course, the word “if” is quite pertinent to our discussion.)

Second, playing a big pot against a guy whose betting indicates that he has you beat is something I try hard to avoid when I have just joined the game and have never had a chance to see my opponent play. Making an instant decision that because my opponent looks under 30, there is a good opportunity to catch him out of line, is not the way I think. Sometimes, I make a decision based on a stereotype, but not for all my money before I have a chance to get the feel of the game. With no other information, I probably would have folded, just like my student did.

Third, I would definitely be willing to gamble with an opponent who is putting a lot of moves on people. I have a good hand and position on my opponent. Waiting for a near-lock is a good way to overlook opportunities that arise and fail to max out on your result. So a situation that I dodged earlier in the game would look a lot different if I had the chance to observe my opponent flying around for a while.

Fourth, I think my student was too rigid in condemning his opponent’s play with pocket tens. For all we know, that might have been the only time all day that the fellow reraised with such a moderate hand. One of the most hallowed poker principles is to vary your play. It could be that the player who reraised preflop with pocket tens was the best player at the table.

If you do decide to play your queens after getting reraised, do you reraise or just call? Are you pot-committed on this hand and forced to go all-in if you decide to play?

The pot at the point you need to make your preflop decision is $155, and your $75 more to call would make it $230. You have another $400 left to wager. This is a borderline situation, in my opinion, but I don’t think you are quite to the point where you are in a raise-or-fold situation. Looking at it from a different perspective, If I had pocket aces, I would consider a smooth-call, so obviously I do not think my opponent is committed to the pot yet. Naturally, one more bet of any size will cause all the money to go in if the bettor is played with, but I think it is okay to call and see the flop.

Once the flop comes down, no matter what it is, you cannot back off once you decide to play. If no overcards come and your opponent bets, you are committed to playing for all your money. (Surely, you did not call with the intent of folding if your opponent bets unless you flop a set.)

If I do not fold when reraised, then I prefer to just call rather than play back all-in. At least I have a chance to make some money if holding the best hand. If you three-bet, your opponent will know exactly where he stands and play accordingly.

You can see that the reraise on pocket tens has posed the opponent serious problems. While I do not endorse reraising preflop whenever you pick up a pair of tens, doing it some of the time will definitely give your opponents problems. The 21st-century style is harder to combat than someone who is simply playing hands in a straightforward manner. ♠

Bob Ciaffone’s new poker book, No-limit Holdem Poker, is now available. This is Bob’s fifth book on poker strategy. It can be ordered from Bob for $25 by emailing him at [email protected]. Free shipping in the lower 48 states to Card Player readers. All books autographed. Bob Ciaffone is available for poker lessons.