Two River Bluffs, Part II

Playing the river can be tricky, but it’s often a good place for finding good situations to bluff. Ranges are more clearly defined, the pot is bigger, allowing you to put more psychological pressure on your opponent, and opponents are less likely to call speculatively. To qualify as a good bluff, I think you need to have three main elements in play. You must be able to credibly represent a strong hand, your hand must be sufficiently weak within your distribution to warrant bluffing, and your opponent’s range must be weak enough to be able to fold.

Last column, we talked about the first hand of the night that involved an interesting river bluff. I decided that I represented a credible hand and that my hand was weak enough within my distribution to bluff, but ultimately, my opponents’ range was probably too strong to try bluff-raising on the river.

This hand takes place in a full ring $5-$10 no-limit game on the same night. The villain from the previous hand was still in the game, now seated two to my right. I now have around $1,500 or so in my stack, and most people at the table have similar stacks. Five people limp, I complete in the small blind (SB) with Q-5, and the big blind (BB) checks. The flop is Q-9-3 rainbow. I have top pair/bad kicker in a multiway pot so I’m not particularly excited about it. I check to see what develops. If it checks around, I can be pretty sure that I have the best hand for now. If there is a bet and call in front of me, I’ll fold. If there is a bet and a raise, I’ll certainly fold and would probably fold a hand as good as A-Q in that situation.

It checks around to the second to last limper who bets $50. He’s a winning player in the no-limit games at this casino and plays quite well. His range here is relatively wide. Medium strength queens, nines, J-10, K-10, K-J, 10-8 suited, J-8 suited, 3-3, and Q-9. I don’t think it includes A-Q, K-Q, or Q-Q ever, nor does it include 9-9 very often. If I include just one of the possible combinations of 9-9 and the rest of his range as 3-3, A-9 suited, K-J through K-9 suited, Q-8 suited plus, J-8 suited plus, 10-8 suited plus, 9-7 suited plus, 10-9 offsuit, J-9 offsuit, A-9 offsuit, K-J through K-10 offsuit, I have 63 percent equity. I call and the first limper calls.

The turn is a seven, completing the rainbow. It checks to the flop bettor, who bets $150. I think I can adjust his range to remove all one pair nines and probably one or two of the queen combinations. I think he’d definitely bet Q-9, 9-9, 3-3, and some of his bluffs, say 10-8, J-10, J-8, and K-T. Versus this range, I have 64 percent equity. I call again. This time the first limper folds and we’re off to the river.

The river is an ace. I check and he bets $340. I think it’s pretty safe to eliminate aces-up from his range since he would almost certainly have raised with A-Q preflop and it’s very unlikely in my opinion that he would have bet A-9 on the turn. He is unlikely to value bet many one pair hands on the river in my opinion as well. So, his range looks like this: Q-9, one combination of 9-9, and one combination of 9-7 since I think he’d probably check this back in case I’ve made aces-up, 3-3, and the bluffs we had built into his range. I have this range absolutely crushed and even if I take out all bluffs besides J-10 (the one I find most credible), I’m still a 2-to-1 favorite against his betting range. I called fairly quickly and he had J-10.

Let’s take a look at this from the guidelines we have set out for a successful bluff. First, is his hand credible as a strong hand? I don’t think so, given the analysis I’ve presented above. Second, is his hand sufficiently weak within his distribution to warrant bluffing? Yes, it is, once again, near the very bottom of his distribution. Finally, is my range weak enough to fold. I’d say that one is pretty close. I’ve called two streets, one with several players to act behind me. I don’t seem to be giving off a very strong inclination to fold this hand. However, the ace could look like a scare card to some players and they would be willing to fold a queen. Game theoretically, he has to bet, but if you include a little bit of hand reading, it becomes a little closer.

As you can see from the analysis of two interesting hands in one night, there are some very interesting situations that come up on the river. Hand reading is a learned skill and one that we must always be improving upon. The most difficult part of hand reading is the fact that a range is a constantly moving target and those are much more difficult to hit than stationary ones. With enough practice, enough skill, and some help from your friends, maybe you can become a better marksman. ♠

Gavin Griffin was the first poker player to capture a World Series of Poker, European Poker Tour and World Poker Tour title and has amassed nearly $5 million in lifetime tournament winnings. Griffin is sponsored by HeroPoker.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NHGG