It’s A People Game

The correctness of a specific play depends upon your current opponent’s tendencies. Good players determine the correct poker tactic based on the propensity of their opponents reactions.

Some players are profitable to liberally bluff, but with a perpetual calling station, bluffing might be suicidal. It all depends on how your opponent will react to your wager. The equation breaks down to the price the pot is laying you on the bluff versus the varying odds your specific opponent(s) will fold. The concept of adjusting to your opponent’s tendencies applies to many other plays too, including more complicated ones.

It was mid-afternoon in a slow $40-$80 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio. There was one loosey–goosey in the game, several top-quality pros and the rest were “wannabe” pros all playing their best. One top pro was having a stormy start to his day and was stuck about $3,000 in the first couple of hours. Under-the-gun (UTG), he opened with a raise, folding the field to the button who flat called as did Mr. Loose-Goosey in the big blind (BB).

They took the flop three-handed, 4 3 2. Mr. Loosey-Goosey checked, Mr. Top-Pro fired, and both his opponents called. The dealer turned the 10, putting three clubs on the board. Everyone checked, giving a free river card to all, the K. Mr. Loosey-Goosey checked again. This time Mr. Top-Pro fired, folding Mr. Button, but he was called by Mr. Loosey-Goosey. Mr. Top-Pro turned over the 7 6 for seven-high, and Mr. Loosey-Goosey turned over the A Q, his ace-high taking the pot.

Mr. Top-Pro was shaking his head over Mr. Loosey-Goosey’s river call. But he should have known better. Just several minutes earlier, Mr. Top-Pro had bet the river with a five-high busted flush draw into a K-Q-J-10-7 board and was called by Mr. Loosey-Goosey with the 10 6, a very weak hand to call with on such a strong board that contained a four-straight. That knowledge should have been telling for Mr. Top-Pro.

The river bluff might have been the correct play, as Mr. Top-Pro could get Mr. Loosey-Goosey to fold better hands such as queen-high and Mr. Button might fold small pairs or ace-high. But I strongly disagree with his preflop thinking. When making “deception plays,” raising with a non-standard hand to cause your opponents to misread the current and future hands, as Mr. Top-Pro did in this case, one must consider how the hand will play and think streets ahead. With Mr. Loosey-Goosey in the BB, the probability of stealing the blinds was extremely low as he would call preflop with most of his range. Additionally, since Mr. Loosey-Goosey was highly likely to be in the pot, the value of postflop aggression was likewise low, further devaluing the expectation of aggressive play. It was just the wrong situation to make that play.

When you’re playing observant opponents, it’s important to make deception plays so that your opponents cannot pick up a pattern to your play. Some “poker experts” deem that you should lose money on these plays and that the lost equity will come back to you in the form of extra loose calls. But, even if that is true, there is a superior strategy available. You can use deception only in situations in which the deception adds to your expected value (EV) and still create doubts in your opponents’ minds. That way you still obtain the calls created from deception, but don’t have to make the negative EV plays which reduce your overall edge.

In this case, Mr. Top-Pro didn’t take into account the fact that Mr. Loosey-Goosey was in the BB and highly likely to continue in the hand. His mere presence in the pot greatly lowered the value of any bluffs, thereby lowering the value of aggressive play. The play Mr. Top-Pro made has value in specific situations in which the value of aggression is high; situations when the blinds are tight, your opponent(s) have a high propensity to fold, and/or your image is tight, etcetera. That not being the case, Mr. Top-Pro should have passed on the opportunity to raise with his medium suited connectors UTG and patiently waited for a better situation.

I don’t disagree with many of Mr. Top-Pro’s decisions at the table, but this was not one of his better choices. I do believe his judgment was affected by his poor start, and this decision was at least partially driven by emotions. It’s not that I think he was completely emotionally reactive, just that the emotions of losing caused him not to think things through to the level he normally does.

The hand speaks to analyzing moves ahead and including your opponents’ tendencies into your strategic choices. Those who don’t operate at that intellectual level end up making incorrect plays when non-standard situations present themselves. And non-standard situations occur frequently. Better strategic play choices that take into account the specific situation would provide them with higher expectation, expectation that adds up considerably over time.

How hands will play is never an exact science. You can never know exactly what your opponents hold or what actions they will take. But you can judge their tendencies based on their intensity/level of thinking and their emotional state, and base your strategic adjustments on those tendencies.

In your current game, are many people raising preflop? If so, you need to take that into account. Is the fellow on the button always playing because he likes “button calls?” If so, you need to recognize that your blind steal has lost much of its equity. Is every hand shown down? If so, how are you going to adjust your bluffing and semi-bluffing strategies? Think about what is taking place in the game and adjust to those realities.
Poker is a game of people played with cards. Know your people, and play your cards accordingly. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke