Chances Are: Part I

There is only a small chance that an average person understands chances, odds, and how they relate. In fact, even gamblers and mythical beings are frequently confused. In the recent Star Trek Into Darkness (2013), Mr. Spock, a legendary half-Vulcan/half-human creature possessing incredible mental powers, states that he has calculated the odds of something at 96 percent (I rounded this to make the math easier.) Ninety-six percent is the chance that something will (or won’t) happen. The odds can easily be computed from the chances, and they are 24-to-1. By the time I finish teaching you about odds, you’ll know more than Spock does about this topic, and perhaps you will also be able to avoid making some bad bets.

First let’s look any event. If it is certain to happen, then the chance that it happens is 100 percent. If it can’t possibly happen, and thus will never happen, then its chance is zero percent. If it will happen half the time, like getting heads or tails on a coinflip, then the odds are 50 percent. It is generally fairly straightforward to figure out the chances of various simple events that can occur with coins, dice and cards. It is much more complicated, if not impossible, to calculate chances of complicated events in the real world. What are the chances that gold will reach $2,000 per ounce within the next five years? What are the chances that the government will release the Full Tilt player money that it has been holding within the next year? What are the chances of Meryl Streep winning another Academy Award? I could give examples forever, but I think you get the idea. Calculating chances can range from simple to virtually impossible.

The basic rule is that chances can be calculated by dividing the outcomes you are interested in by the total number of outcomes. The result can be expressed as a fraction, decimal or percent. For example, the chance of picking the A from a deck of fifty-two cards is 1/52, or .0192 or 1.92%. While the chance of picking any of the four aces is 4/52 or .0769 or 7.69%. Odds are determined by dividing the chance that some event occurs by the chance that it does not occur. Usually it is expressed as some number-to-one. Using the above examples: the odds of picking the ace of spades are 51-to-1 while the odds of picking any ace are 12-to-1. This is why Mr. Spock had determined chances, not odds. The odds were 96-to-4, which reduces to 24-to-1.

Notice that in the above cases, we calculated the real odds of something happening. Odds are also used to describe the payout you will get when something happens. If you go into a sports book and pick out a team that you think will win the Major League Baseball World Series, they will lay you odds on that team. If you pick a good team the odds will be low, 4-to 1, or even less. If you pick a bad team the odds will be high, 50-to-1 or more. Understanding the difference between the odds you are being offered and the real odds is one of the most important elements in being a successful gambler. If you can consistently take odds greater than the true odds, you will be a winner. If you consistently take odds worse than the true odds, you will be a loser. Casinos stay in business by offering their customers slightly less than the true odds. On the rare occasions that they make a mistake, they can be beaten. In general they don’t make mistakes, and you can’t beat them. If you have the habit of playing pit games or betting on horses or sports, you are probably getting the worst of it. You will lose. (Yes, I know there are a few great handicappers and a few extremely accurate computer models.

The bettors with access to these can show a profit. There are also many touts, who pretend to be capable of picking winners. They attempt to sell their selections for as much as they can. Virtually anyone selling his selections to the public is not capable of picking winners.) One of the things that makes poker beatable is the fact that players make mistakes. If you make fewer and less costly mistakes than your opponents, you will beat them. In the next column(s) we will start looking at some poker situations. We will examine how you can determine what the real odds of something happening are. We will also examine such concepts as counting outs, pot odds, implied odds, negative (or reverse) implied odds. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With 2 WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.