The Keno Solution to Bad Hands

Virtually every time I show up in a poker room, somebody buttonholes me in a corner for a little poker advice. Oftentimes they are kind enough to share a bad-beat story with me, on the very small chance that it's one I haven't already heard some variation of. And it has been a long time since I heard a fresh one. Sometimes they ask me about starting-hand values, looking for some kind of simple magic formula that will help turn them into winners. They've read somewhere that you can assign a value to a hand that easily defines what it is and how it should be played.

I have written several times that most top professional players will make the same play or fold decisions about 95 percent of the time before the flop in limit hold'em, and that real poker decision-making applies principally on the later streets. Even so, I believe there is no such thing as a betting, calling, raising, or folding hand. There are only situations, and each situation is unique, calling for independent analysis in order to create the largest possible number in our expectation field.

I do use general guidelines for starting hands, and apply those guidelines to situations. Assuming an average type of full ring game, there are some hands I generally throw away: A-rag offsuit; Q-X and K-X suited; suited one-gappers lower than J-9; suited connectors lower than 9-8; pretty much any suited two-gapper that doesn't show paint; and pairs 6 and lower. Unless I'm very late to act or nearly certain I am going to get good volume and/or edge out of the situation, those hands are routinely headed for the muck, where they belong. But every day I see people regularly turning over those hands and then whining about how they've been running badly and can't pay the rent.

Putting this as kindly as I can (which is not very kind), they're broke because they're action junkies who play far too many hands. My experience is that people who play far too many hands generally take too many hands to the turn and river, also. My advice to them is to get away from any card game they are playing in and take up keno. They'll never get the best of that game, but at least they'll have a shot at getting lucky and hitting it big!

Poker is about much more than hand selection. But in limit games, people who continuously start preflop with "trouble" hands find themselves making the second-best hand more often than their opponents. Yes, they might be able to make better decisions after the flop and get away from the worst hand much better than their opponents. Yes, they might be able to make better bluffing decisions and make up a lot of lost ground. But, are they really capable of doing that? And even if they are, how much ground can they make up? It's just tough to outplay people who are always turning over better hands than they are! They are very frequently "all trapped up" with nowhere to go – and that can get very expensive!

You need to be able to analyze preflop situations and determine if your hand is in trouble. Many books and preflop hold'em "systems" make "if A then B" statements. For example, if an early-position opponent raises, fold K-J. This sort of statement is given without relevant information regarding the "texture" of the situation. It is much easier to play poker in that mindset. You can pick up your cards, determine their value, check out the cocktail waitress, and wait for your turn to act on your predetermined strategy. If that worked, poker would be an easy game. You could play your starting hands correctly and win as steadily as cashing a paycheck.

When you play this way, however, your poker game loses a great deal of value. You lose the value of positive expectation plays that are outside the parameters of your predetermined strategy. Also, you tend to put yourself in situations in which you should get away from a hand but end up playing it because it is within your predetermined parameters. You need to be able to read your opponents and get a "feel" for which hands play well in certain situations, and adjust your hand selection accordingly.

The number of possible scenarios is infinite, so you need to understand concepts in order to think through the best play. For example, suited hands do better in volume pots, preferably against opponents who call too much, are easy to control, and don't bet the flop much. You want to get paid well if you make your flush, you would prefer to have your opponents check the flop so you can pick up draws or get free cards, and you want to be able to use free-card plays effectively against them. Oftentimes, opponents' bets going into the pot after you make a flush are "dead bets" and have huge value. Also, getting in cheaply is better than calling preflop raises.

Big cards do better in shorthanded pots, where one pair has a higher likelihood of holding up. That said, hands that are "outkicked" or have an undercard(s) to an opponent's pair are in big, big trouble. The pot seldom overlays those situations. When playing hands that figure to win when making one pair, try to determine if your cards are "untrapped" in your current situation. For example, if a supertight opponent raises from early position, you might want to fold A-Q, but when a superloose opponent raises from that spot, you might want to three-bet it. Against the supertight player, it is very likely that you are up against A-A, K-K, A-K, or Q-Q, and are "all trapped up." Against the superloose player, you still may be up against those hands, but the likelihood of that is lower, and the player's range includes many other hands with which he will be in trouble against you. This will more than make up for the times your hands is in trouble.

Small pairs do well in volume pots. If you flop a set, you want players available to give you action. The more action players there are in the pot, the better. Note that this differs slightly from suited hands. You would still prefer to get in cheaply, but, assuming your set is good, you want fast action on the flop and beyond. This is because your opponents are the ones drawing. I understand that you would like players to check if you miss so you can get a free card, but you can't have it both ways. I generally prefer the "overplays the flop" type of player over the passive caller, but both have their merits.

Sometimes these concepts overlap, as in when you have big suited cards. In such situations, you need to weigh all factors and make your best judgment on how to play the hand based on the situation at the table.

If you want to win at hold'em, playing loosely preflop is just not the right strategy. You can play many of those "tweener" types of hands, but the situation has to be just right. Think things through and throw away those hands that don't equate.

When in doubt, throw it out! If you just can't do that, you're an action junkie and should give up poker for keno. I'd help you out and give you directions to the keno room, but I've never been there; positive expectation is my thing.

Oh, by the way … when you hit it big at keno, come back and see us in the poker room.

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas. If you would like to ask Roy poker-related questions, you may do so online at www.UnitedPokerForum.com.