'Flop Coming' - Low Flops

There are many situations in poker when it is correct to "bet on the come" (bet a hand that must draw favorably in order to have value). In a loose Omaha high-low game, it is frequently correct to bet after the flop on a draw or even on mere potential. And perhaps the most important reason to make that bet is to prevent opponents from getting a free card that might cost you half or even the whole pot. In the last issue, I discussed making these aggressive bets after a high flop.

What are your inclinations regarding betting a nut-low draw in Omaha high-low? For example, suppose your four cards are A-2 and two high cards, and K-6-4 hits the flop. Should you lead bet? Lots of players like to wait until they actually make the nut low before they voluntarily put more money into the pot. We all know how often these two-card nut-low draws don't get there (they miss more than 40 percent of the time*). And pessimists often check even after making the nut low in fear of being "quartered" (tying for the low half of the pot).

We all have heard the advice, "You should bet a nut-low draw only when you also have a third low card (for backup) in your hand" (three low cards hit a low more than 70 percent of the time*). I do not agree with that advice.

Under most conditions, in my opinion, you should bet any nut-low draw after the flop, especially if you think it might get checked around (which would be a strategic disaster from your point of view). You should bet not just because you have good chances of winning half the pot, but because you belong in the pot and perhaps some of your opponents do not! Think of it as the price of admission. Do not give free cards to those who might beat you if they get a free card! If you have the nut-low draw, probably the only good reason not to bet the flop is that the pot is relatively small and you think checking might induce other players to bet ("pull").

In order to see the whole picture, let's look at hands that we call "pulling hands." Sometimes, you do not bet (or raise) because you want more opponents in the pot. Suppose you flop four jacks and the other flop card is a high card. Since you do not have to worry about splitting the pot (a low cannot be made), and you can safely assume that you will win the pot, then you might check ("trap") after the first two rounds so that no one will fold. Perhaps someone else will bet, or perhaps someone will improve enough to bet or call your bet on the final round. The main point is, you do not want to pressure anyone into folding. You want to "pull" in as much competition as possible. You would bet or raise only if it seemed likely that no one would fold.

Similarly, when you are drawing for the nut flush in a high-only pot (when the board cannot make a low), sometimes you want to pull in competition. And checking tends to lessen your investment (and everyone else's). However, you sometimes prefer to push if you have other promotable high (or low) values. The main point here is that if you hit your nut flush, you would like as many opponents in the pot as possible. More opponents make for a bigger pot, and make it more likely that you will be paid off after you hit. So, a nut-high draw without other high (or low) prospects is also a pulling situation.

When you are drawing to the nut low, how do you distinguish between pushing (aggressively betting or raising) and pulling situations? You must use your judgment to decide whether you want to pull more opponents into the pot to pay you off if you hit the low or push to try to narrow the field to improve your chances of backing in to the high. When two nut-low hands raise each other furiously after the flop and/or the turn (and push out all or most of the competition), it is not unusual for the high to be won with a mere pair.

Note that when it is close between pushing and pulling, you probably should push. It would be bad economics to pull in an extra caller to pay off your nut low if that caller narrowly beats you out of the high. Essentially, you have to evaluate your own high potential, then try to judge who might have a high draw as opposed to trips or two pair (a "made" hand) by the way they are betting and by the way they normally play. Of course, putting players on hands is tricky business in Omaha high-low – but aggressive play based on informed guesses does pay off in the long run.

Does this same philosophy apply to raising with the nut-low draw after the flop? Yes, but to a lesser extent. Again, it depends mostly on your high potential versus your low values. The concept is best explained by an example. Suppose you hold a 2-3-4-Q in six-way unraised action. The flop comes A-Q-7 rainbow. You are likely to make the nut low more than 70 percent of the time.* The player in front of you bets. I would raise here, mostly to promote the high potential of my queens. If the queen in the flop had been a jack (thus, I would have nothing for high), I would just call. Or, if the 7 in the flop had been a 5 (thereby giving me three cards to make a wheel), I would just call to pull in more opponents.

But all of the above is certainly subject to your "feel for the table." Quite often, especially in close situations, you bet or raise because it "feels" right based on the momentum of what's been happening on previous hands. Omaha high-low in many respects is more an art form than a science.

* See the low draw percentages on Page 269 of Caro and Cappelletti's new book, Poker at the Millennium.