Don't be Misled by the Hype in College Football

Having been a sports handicapper for nearly 30 years, I always find it amusing to watch the "talking heads" on TV as they preview the week's upcoming games in college football. It seems that one of the mandatory guidelines these sportscasters and former jocks are given is to be sure to lay on the heavy hyperbole, especially for the games that their own network (over-the-air or cable) will be carrying that weekend.

The hype in the first couple of weeks this season was at such a pitch that it could dizzy the mind of the untrained sports bettor trying to learn a little bit more about the players, the teams, and the games. And the particularly bad part is that the talking heads – as opposed to sports bettors who might take them for their word by making a wager – are free to blurt their many poorly thought out overstatements without consequence.

Within the first couple of weeks this season, the football fan/viewer/sports bettor was hit with the following statements from some of the top TV analysts (and I use that word loosely) in the business (the names of the TV guys aren't important for this piece; many are colorful, knowledgeable, interesting, and enthusiastic; they just tend to go overboard, which is the main point of this piece):

1. "Darren Sproles is the best running back in the country."

Comment: Yes, the 5-foot-7-inch Kansas State dynamo is a good RB. But, there are other terrific RBs, too. Let's let the other backs play a few games, and also take a look at some of the up-and-comers, before we crown Sproles. In fact, handicappers should know that he racks up a lot of his stats against K-State's weak slate of opponents. Less than one month after that statement, Sproles was out-rushed by two little-known RBs from Marshall on his home field.

2. "Steven Jackson is simply the best running back in college football."

Comment: Again, the 6-foot-3-inch, 237-pound Jackson is a wonderful back, with size, speed, and power. But, both he and Sproles can't be the best. It's one or the other. In fact, Sproles' team didn't cover the game in which he was touted as being the best, and neither did Jackson's. In fact, Jackson's didn't even win. Through K-State's first five games and Oregon State's first four (not all contests were on the line), neither team had covered a game!

3. "Chris Perry is my choice to win the Heisman Trophy."

Comment: This somewhat rash comment was made after Michigan's Perry had played two games, and those were against Central Michigan and Houston – not exactly powerhouses. The 6-foot-1 inch, 225-pound Perry had pounded the poor Chippewas and Cougars for a total of 416 yards, with both games in Ann Arbor. Two weeks later, Perry gained a grand total of 23 yards rushing and receiving as the Wolverines lost at Oregon. Better not engrave that statue just yet.

4. "Frank Gore is better than Willis McGahee."

Comment: He might be. But, at least three "analysts" (those who made the statements above) don't think Miami's Gore is better than Sproles, Jackson, or Perry. And the Hurricanes' McGahee was pretty good last year, rushing for 1,753 yards and 28 touchdowns, and catching 27 passes for 355 yards. And Gore is returning from surgery to repair a severed knee ligament. Let's just hope he first can make it through a few games before we hand out the accolades. (Miami covered two of its first four games.)

What kind of fair, complete, impartial, and – most importantly – helpful analysis is this? Just because an announcer or TV jock knows, or likes, or will be covering the game of a certain player, it doesn't make that player any better than he is, in fact. And that's always the challenge for the handicapper: to learn the facts about the players and the teams. And to do that, you have to be able to develop a knack for separating the facts from the hype.

TV coverage of college football has never been more widespread. There are more games on more days involving more teams from more leagues. This is good for the sagacious sports handicapper who's willing to take in lots of information … but he must take it in with an open mind and with his "hype filter" running on "high."

Always remember, just because some talking head says something is so, it doesn't make it so. Sproles is good, and Jackson is good, and Perry is good, and Gore is good. But so are Anthony Davis of Wisconsin, and Michael Turner of Northern Illinois, and Kevin Jones of Virginia Tech, and Walter Reyes of Syracuse, and Shaud Williams of Alabama, and so on. All of those mentioned (and others unnamed) actually have at least two things in common: They are key players for their teams, and none of them is so dominant as to be a guarantee that his team will cover the pointspread in any one game.

Sports are fun. The live drama can be fascinating and take many twists and turns. But keep in mind that TV networks are in the business of building excitement in order to attract viewers. The "talking heads" are network agents – and they deal in hyperbole. Take it in, but don't let it faze your analysis or determine your hard, cold, wagering decisions.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.