Fold or Play When it's Marginal?

Many decisions in both life and poker are clear-cut no-brainers. If you think about a given situation or problem, the answer is often self-evident. However, one must keep in mind that things are not always as they appear. Some things that appear to be obvious might be perceived differently if approached from a higher level of knowledge. Approaching the problem with greater knowledge, you would perceive the question from a different perspective, thereby deriving a different solution.

Poker is a game of decisions. If you make more informed, more accurate decisions than your opponents, you will take down their money. And taking down their money is a wonderful thing. It's fun, and it spends well, too!

To actualize an outcome that results in your cashing out a winner at the end of the year takes much knowledge. The greater your knowledge, the more likely your decisions are to be correct. Assuming you are not playing with intellectually challenged people, most of the differences in your decisions and your opponents' decisions will be in marginal situations. By marginal situations I mean those in which you can make a case for playing a hand in different ways. Today's subject is play or fold decisions in marginal situations, where you can use your knowledge to make the difference.

When I am in a marginal situation, I scan the file in my brain for concepts that would fit the current situation. Several concepts come to mind: How am I going to fare against my opponents in terms of playing ability after the decision? How likely is my hand to be trapped up, and how will this affect my image at the table in regard to the play of future hands? All trapped-up situations in hold'em are those in which your opponent's holdings cripple the winning potential of your hand, such as when hitting your ace gives your opponent a straight, or you hold a matching card to an opponent but have an inferior kicker, or you are drawing to undercards to your opponent's pair. One trapped-up situation I see a lot is people drawing to an ace and an undercard against a pair. When they hit that undercard, they often pay off.

If your opponents are going to outplay you after your play/fold decision, you are better off folding your marginal hands. Something many mathematically oriented players often miss is how play after the decision affects the value of the decision at hand. Given the same situation and set of circumstances, if you earn half a big bet in expectation over what another player would earn, the percentage difference of the value of that situation is huge. The player who earns the extra expectation might be correct in calling, when the player who does not earn the extra expectation might be correct in throwing the very same hand away in identical circumstances.

Sometimes when you are new to a game and are unfamiliar with the players, you are correct in folding in a specific situation, whereas if you were familiar with your opponents and could incorporate how they play into your game, you would be correct in calling. Thus, if you can play better than your opponents in a given situation, you can loosen up your standards, because you can make up lost ground after making your decision. Conversely, if you play worse than your opponents, you should tighten up your standards, because you will lose ground after making your decision. That said, I haven't heard too many players admit that their decisions are worse than those of their opponents.

Another factor to consider when playing a marginal situation is how your hand fares in that situation. Many marginal situations can be right to play most of the time but wrong overall, because they tend to lose more expectation when they are in bad shape than they win when they are in good shape. In other words, your hand is a small favorite when it is a favorite, but a big underdog when it is an underdog. Also, if you are likely to win very little when you make your hand and win, and lose a lot when your hand is no good, you need to adjust the value of your hand proportionately. This is often the situation with many trapped-up hands; you tend to win a little but lose a lot. So, when considering a marginal decision, the greater the likelihood of being trapped up, the more inclined you should be to fold.

Your image at the poker table has much to do with your overall results. If you fold all of your marginal hands, aware opponents are going to perceive you as being very tight. If you call in all of your marginal situations, aware opponents are going to perceive you as being loose, and will tend to give you more action. You can control your image by how you play your marginal situations, which can have a huge impact on your expectation in the game you are in. Note, however, that if your opponents would not notice if an elephant walked across the table, adjusting your image by playing/not playing your marginal hands will not work. If how you play your marginal situations will influence your opponents, you want to determine how you wish to influence them. Do you want them to give you action or do you want to procure more bluffing opportunities? It is easier to influence people to go in the direction they are inclined to go anyway. As a general rule, if players are calling too much, I try to make them call more, and if they are folding hands when they should call, I try to make them fold more.

The edge factor of marginal situations adds up to a significant number over the course of time. Those marginal situations present many tough decisions, requiring good poker knowledge and discipline. The quality of decisions in such situations is what separates average and good players from the great players.

So, when you sit down in a game, think about how you want to play your marginal hands, what weaknesses in your opponents you want to exploit, and what image you want to portray to take advantage of those weaknesses. When analyzing a marginal situation, think about your ability to outplay opponents who are already in the pot, as well as those who may enter the pot behind you. Consider the potential of these opponents to outplay you, as well. Think about the likelihood of your hand to be trapped up by your opponents' hands. And consider how your opponents will perceive the decisions you make.

If you do all of that effectively with your fold or play decisions in marginal situations, it's very likely I'll see you at the cash-out window!

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas. If you would like to ask Roy poker-related questions, you may do so online at www.UnitedPokerForum.com.