An Unusual Play

People who know me or have played with me always tell me the same things: "You are a very lucky player." "Man, you hardly ever play a hand, but when you do, you always win." "When I play A-K, the board comes with rags, but when you do, there's always an ace or king on the flop." I've been hearing this stuff for years, and I usually agree with the people who make these claims. I say, "You're right, man, it's true; I am lucky." Of course, it is not true. The truth is, I play extremely tight and very solid, and I still think my discipline is more important to my edge than my knowledge of all kinds of different plays and strategies. Most of the time, I play by the book, with an occasional exception. In this column, I'll discuss one of these exceptions.

The game: Pot-limit Omaha, $400 buy-in, $8-$8 blinds, ninehanded

The situation: You are under the gun with Q-J-J-10 (no suits) and have called before the flop, playing a $360 stack. Six people call the initial bet, and there are no raises. The flop comes to your liking: J 8 4, giving you top set and a gutshot-straight draw. You bet the pot ($48) and get one caller, an aggressive and tricky player who has you covered. The turn is the 5 and you are first to act. What should you do?

The play: There is no way for you to know if the 5 has made your opponent a straight or not. He might be in there with 7-6-5-X, Q-10-9-X, the ace-high flush draw, or some kind of combination hand that may or may not contain a 7 and a 6. If you bet the pot ($144) and get raised, you will almost certainly have to call, because even if you think you are beat, you can improve with a 9 (for a straight) or any pair (for a full house or quads), and it will cost you only $160 more for a total pot of $740. However, if your opponent calls rather than raises, you will still have the same $160 left in front of you, when almost every river card will scare you. Any spade, heart, 6, 7, 10, or queen may improve your opponent's hand over yours, even an ace or king may be bad for you (if your opponent is in there with an overpair plus a flush draw, for example), and a blank may not necessarily be good (if your opponent does have the 7-6 but for whatever reason chose not to raise). This means that you might very well be bluffed out on the river if a scare card comes that was in fact of no help to your opponent – and if you decide to pay off, you might lose a lot if your opponent does have the goods. On top of that, you won't get any action if your hand stays good (that is, if a deuce or 3 comes or the board pairs). By now, it should be clear that betting the pot is not as automatic as it would seem to many players who are not very familiar with pot-limit Omaha. How about betting small "to see where you're at"? (If you get raised, you can safely fold, since your opponent won't be bluffing in this spot.) This is almost always a very weak play, in my opinion. Anyone who is considered a "player," and even a tight, solid player like myself, is going to semibluff raise you off your hand here, because by making this kind of bet, you are asking your opponent to take the pot away from you. If your opponent is not that savvy and just calls here, you've still got the same dilemma as before: Almost every river card will look dangerous and might improve your opponent. That is, you are vulnerable to being bluffed out on the river, especially since your opponent is aggressive and tricky, as stated. Now, it's these two characteristics that are the key to the unusual play I would recommend here.

I would simply check the turn, rather than bet the pot or bet small. My opponent knows I don't have the nuts: The most likely hands for me to have are J-J, 8-8, the nut-flush draw plus a pair, or the big Q-10-9 wrap. It is almost impossible for me to have the 7-6 after having bet the pot against a two-suited J-8-4 flop with four people behind me still to act, but even if I did have it, I wouldn't check on the turn, would I? On top of that, he knows I fear that he might have made the nuts, because he might very well be in there with a 7 and a 6. Since he's tricky and aggressive, he will almost certainly bet here to take the pot away from me, whether he has made his hand or not. So, I'm going to fold, because he might have made a straight and I only have a set, right? Or better still, I'm going to call him because he might be bluffing, and even if he's not, I still might improve on the river, right? Wrong! I'm going to check-raise him all in! Because he is more likely to still be betting his draw than betting the nuts, I'm going to charge him the maximum for trying to make his draw. By doing this, I take away his implied odds on the hand. I don't have to worry about a possible bluff on the river, and if he calls and my hand stands up, I will have made extra money I would not have made otherwise. If he has a good draw, he will probably call me (in which case my hand will be the favorite over his), but he might even fold, which would be best of all. Of course, there is a problem here if my opponent does have the straight he has represented. But even then, I am not dead. Any pair or 9 might still give me a winner, which will be (depending on the exact hand of my opponent) anywhere from 10 to 14 outs. I have won quite a few massive pots by making this unusual play, and I always got the same reactions from my opponents: "Man, you are certainly lucky!" "How could you make a play like that?" "Didn't you see the straight?" (It didn't matter if I had to improve to win or not; even when my set was in fact the best hand, I still got those kinds of comments.) Well, I agree you should be careful in using this play, and avoid getting carried away with it too much. However, under the right circumstances, against the right opponent, and with the right stack size, this play can make (or save) you a lot of money, and it will add tremendously to your image as a fearless, merciless, and lucky player. Plus, after people have seen you making this play, they will think twice about trying to bully you out of a pot in the future.