Overestimating our Abilities

Nearly everyone overestimates his abilities. Students – even failing ones – think they deserve good grades. Nearly all workers think they do a good job, even ones who are fired for incompetence. Tone-deaf people insist on singing at parties, and terrible speakers have ruined countless meetings. In fact, if you ask people to rate themselves on almost any ability, most of them will rate themselves above average or higher, a statistical impossibility.

This tendency probably exists everywhere, but it is particularly common in modern America. The current system emphasizes building self-esteem and regards criticism as destructive. Students and workers used to be told about their faults, but not today.

Overestimation is so common and important that David Sklansky discussed it on the very first page of The Theory of Poker. "From the expert's point of view, the veneer of simplicity that deludes so many players into thinking they are good is the profitable side of the game's beauty … Losers … return to the table again and again, donating their money and blaming their losses on bad luck, not bad play."

Luck has such enormous short-term effects that it is extremely easy to delude oneself. Stupidity is often rewarded, and it is so easy to think our wins come from our skill, but our losses from bad luck. Andy Glazer's fine column, "The 'Better Player' Theory Takes Some Hits" (Card Player, Sept. 12, 2003), discussed some reasons for this tendency.

Overestimation affects nearly every aspect of poker. Weak players insist they are good and that only terrible luck keeps them from winning. We all hate to hear bad-beat stories (even if we tell our share of them), but we can't avoid them. People need an excuse for their poor results.

Moderately good players insist on playing at levels they can't beat. They can beat smaller games, but have no chance at higher limits. They build a bankroll, move up, lose it, move down, build another one, and repeat the cycle, perhaps for years. They just don't get the message: "You're not good enough to beat bigger games."

Although overestimation is annoying, it is also the primary source of our profits. If they knew how badly they played, most live ones wouldn't play with us. You must never forget an essential fact: If you play against equally skilled players, everybody must lose. The only winner is the house.

Overestimation also has its amusing aspects. For example, Mason Malmuth wanted to call their book Professional Hold'em, but David Sklansky said Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players was better because "everyone thinks he is an advanced player."

I had often suspected this pattern, but couldn't be sure. The only evidence was isolated incidents. For example, we all have suffered through countless "lessons" by utter idiots. They can't play, but they tell us how to play. Recently, I read solid evidence supporting this principle. On Twoplustwo.com's Poker Psychology Forum, Sean Lester (aka "angry young man") posted a link to a great article: Justin Kruger and David Dunning's "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, December 1999, Vol. 77, No. 6, 1121-1134; the hyperlink is www.apa.org/journals/psp/psp7761121.html).

That study provided solid evidence that the less skilled people are, the less aware they are of their own limitations. Let me quote from the abstract.

"People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities … this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled … suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across four studies, the authors found that participants [whose] … test scores put them in the 12th percentile … estimated themselves to be in the 62nd." That is, even though their scores put them in the bottom eighth, they thought they were significantly above average.

"Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities." In other words, as they became more skilled, they became more aware of their own limitations.

This study has huge implications for poker. Weaker players don't know enough to realize how bad they are. Studying not only increases your skill, it also increases your ability to recognize and correct your weaknesses.

If you accept this study's conclusions, you should let other people continue to be misguided, but correct for your own overestimates.

Do not tell them how badly they play, even when their stupidity has cost you a huge pot. Let them remain fat, dumb, and happy. Sooner or later, their mistakes will put money in your pocket.

1. Most important, admit that YOU overestimate your abilities. It is not just other people; it's you, and me, and nearly everyone else, from the beginners to the experts. I hated to admit it, but the evidence was so clear that I ultimately and very reluctantly admitted that I don't play as well as I once thought. Worse yet, the desire to overestimate abilities is so strong that I need repeated reminders that I still don't play that well. That is, overestimation is not something you or I can correct once and forget about. We must constantly guard against it.

2. Since you probably need evidence to stop kidding yourself, get a coach. At least four Card Player columnists (in alphabetical order, Ciaffone, Sklansky, Tanenbaum, and West) provide lessons. Any good coach will objectively assess your strengths and weaknesses. If you don't want to pay a coach, start or join a poker discussion group. At cardplayer.com, you can read my article on this subject.

A good group will provide free coaching. For example, I once reported a hand I thought I had misplayed on the turn, but they convinced me that my turn play just compounded the effects of earlier mistakes! Did I like hearing it? Of course not, but I can't improve without hard-hitting criticism today, tomorrow, and next year.

3. Study. It not only will improve your skills, it will also open your mind and help you see how well you really play and what you must do to improve.

Overestimating our abilities is a basic human tendency, and it will affect every poker game (and just about everything else we do). The important point is: Let others delude themselves, but don't kid yourself.

If you would like to learn more about yourself and other players, you can order Dr. Schoonmaker's book, The Psychology of Poker.