The Percentages in the Bowls

The college bowl season (at least for football handicappers) is becoming much like the Texas State Fair – it gets bigger and better every year. While so many members of the national media will rip into college football for the many, many minor bowls that are of so little consequence (to them, at least), we handicappers are in hog heaven, with an attitude more like "the more the merrier." That's because all the games are televised and handicappers have plenty of time to read about and analyze the opposing teams to their heart's content.

As handicappers, the task is always to identify the high-percentage spots, minimize the "X Factor" as much as possible, and search for good pointspread value. Here's where some of the "favorable fishing waters" have been in bowl handicapping in recent years.

Underdogs generally tend to have more of a psychological edge in the early bowls. Such was the case again in the 2002 bowl season, when the favorites were only 6-13 in bowls before Jan. 1 (one game was a pick 'em affair). Over the last two bowl seasons, dogs in the pre-New Year's Day bowls are now 23-12.

There are several reasons for this tendency. Teams are established as the favorite in the game based upon their better record over the course of the season. But it's often the case that during the layoff between the end of the regular season and the bowl game, favorites tend to lose a little momentum. Many have a hard time regaining the same groove they had during the regular season. And, of course, it's usually easier for underdogs to get pumped up for bowl games, if merely because they feel a little disrespected by the oddsmakers. Coaches use a team's underdog status as motivational material, and players always like to prove the "experts" wrong.

Favorites tend to do better in the big bowls on New Year's Day and thereafter. Much more is usually at stake in these games, and these games usually involve the power teams, with lots of greatly talented players. When one team gets an edge over an opponent, it's less likely to let up in a big game. In the last two bowl seasons, favorites are a combined 10-5 (one game was a pick 'em) on New Year's Day and thereafter. The intensity of the preparation of both teams in the "big" bowls tends to be about the same. With that being the case, the frequent psychological edge of the bowl underdog is often diminished. Don't get me wrong, there have been plenty of upsets on Jan. 1 and thereafter in recent years. Miami, for example, was a 12-point favorite over Ohio State in last season's BCS title game on Jan. 3 at the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe. The Buckeyes won in overtime, 31-24, to complete an unbeaten season.

Here's a look at some of the more pronounced long-running underdog trends in some of the minor bowls.

Dogs have gone 11-4 in the last 15 years in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Dogs are 11-1-2 in the last 14 years in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.

Dogs are 8-2 in the last 11 years in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta (last year's game was a pick 'em between Maryland and Tennessee, won by the Terrapins, 30-3).

While the results in some of the other minor bowls might not be so pronounced (many of the newer bowls haven't even been around for as long as 10 years), you get the idea. Conference champions usually don't play in such minor bowls (although the Conference USA and Mountain West Conference champs have been meeting recently in the Liberty Bowl).

When prestigious programs such as Southern Cal, Michigan, or Miami find themselves in a minor bowl, it's because they didn't win their league title, so they often view their league season as a "bummer." Meanwhile, a team from a lesser league (for example, the Fresno States of the world) tends to get very fired up about the chance to knock off one of the "big boys." And they don't really care if the bigger-name team was plagued by injuries, or misfortune, or whatever.

Here's one other note. In recent years, sportsbooks have begun to set the totals on many bowl games very high, taking advantage of the public's general preference to bet the "over" in a game rather than the often-agonizing "under." The oddsmakers set the total at about what the public will view as the max, then cut it just a little bit. In last season's bowl games, there were 11 "overs," 16 "unders," and one virtual tie. When a total was 50 or higher last season, the "overs" were only 5-10-1.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.