Confused About Survival Versus Value in Tournaments?

As the new year approaches, it seems natural to second-guess ourselves about things we did in the old year. Should I have done this instead of that? What if I had turned left instead of right? The same types of questions can haunt us after we've played a tournament. What if I had passed instead of called? Raised instead of called? Sometimes I even wonder if I should have stayed at home in bed!

George was still suffering from this type of internal quiz when he e-mailed me about his play in a no-limit hold'em tournament during the Oasis Open. "I want to share a bad-beat story that has a bearing on the business of 'survival versus value' in tournament play," he began. "We were down to four tables from a starting field of 164 players in the tournament. The blinds were $1,500-$3,000 and I had about $20,000 in chips, a bit below average. Eighteen places were being paid. Sitting in the big blind, I was dealt pocket sixes. A fairly aggressive player brought it in for the minimum raise of $6,000 from early position. My antenna went up because of the small size of the raise."

George's "antenna went up" because he realized that when a player brings in the pot for a minimum raise in a no-limit hold'em tournament, it often means that he is trying to trap an opponent into calling by slow-playing a strong hand. He correctly assumed that the raiser probably had a big pair, but later discovered that … but wait, let's get on with his account of what happened next.

"It was passed to me and I called the extra $3,000 since, among other reasons, I could not be reraised. I also thought the implied odds were good. Now, there was just the two of us, with $13,500 in the pot. The flop came 7-6-4 and I checked my set of sixes. My aggressive opponent had only $8,000 in chips and put them in. Assuming that he had a big pair, I called. He rolled over a K-10! I knew I was a huge favorite, but then something happened that was incredible: The turn card was a 9 and the river card was an 8, making a straight for my all-in opponent! Losing that pot left me with $6,000, which I milked to 21st place, three spots out of the money. If I had won that hand, I'm pretty sure I would have been in the money."

At this point, George started to second-guess himself about how he played his trips, going through all of those aggravating "what if" scenarios that we torture ourselves with after this kind of beat. "If I bet out after the flop, he probably folds and I win the pot with no risk of a drawout. If I bet and he calls, I am no worse off than I was. If I check-raise the flop, I trap him with hands like he had. That's good in that it gets more chips in the pot with the odds stacked in my favor, but it's bad in that it can lead to the kind of drawout that happened. So, the problem is that of value versus survival. Which gets precedence here?"

George did a natural thing at this point in his thinking: He consulted his friends for advice and consolation. "My friends all claim that getting him all in with the odds that strongly in my favor cannot be wrong. But what haunts me is that betting out wins me the pot unless he has a big pair, and even then I'm not sure he would have called. Of course, there are two other ways I could have played the hand. One is to muck it before the flop, and the other is to go all in before the flop. I think this one is close. What are your thoughts, Tom?"

I can find no fault with the way that George played the sixes in this scenario. Calling a modest raise from a loose, aggressive player was fine. And then trying to trap him for nearly all of his chips after the flop was the right thing to do. Aggressive players will often bet with nothing after the flop if it is checked to them, which is exactly what your opponent did. Even if he had an overpair to your sixes, your opponent had only two outs to beat you. The runner-runner straight cards were an unpredictable occurrence, leading to an extremely bad beat for you. The big money to be won in tournaments is in the first three places, and you need to accumulate lots of chips to get there. This was a perfect time for you to do that, rather than just trying to survive with an average stack. Trying to get maximum value for your hand, you gave it your best shot. Now, you can stop second-guessing yourself.

Speaking of giving it your best effort, that's what my writing partner, T.J. Cloutier, did recently at the Showdown at the Sands, where he placed fifth for a big payday. Earlier in the year, T.J. suffered a heart attack, followed by another medical crisis upon his return from the UltimateBet tournament in Aruba in October. Not letting either of these drawbacks deter him from giving his all, he has continued on the tournament trail in his usual winning style. If we all follow T.J.'s lead in overcoming adversity, I'm sure we'll meet in the winner's circle one day soon.

Editor's note: Tom McEvoy is the author of Tournament Poker and the co-author (with T.J. Cloutier) of Championship No-Limit & Pot-Limit Hold'em. His newest book, Championship Satellite Strategy, with co-author Brad Daugherty, is now available through Card Player. For more details, visit www.cardplayer.com or www.pokerbooks.com.