Showdown at the Sands - Part III: Coin Flips

If you missed Part I and Part II (you can find them at either http://www.cardplayer.com or http://www.fullcontactpoker.com ), here is a little summary of the current situation: There are six players left at the Sands in Atlantic City , and first prize is $1 million. Paul Wolfe is the chip leader with $378,000 in chips, I'm second with $357,000, and Mike "Motor Mouth" Matusow sits in third place with $285,000.

I was really psyched about my chances. I was playing well, was in good chip position, and believed I had a pretty good read on my opponents. I wasn't going to be happy with anything less than that $1 million first prize.

The very first hand dealt, I took on the chip leader, Paul Wolfe, with 10-10 against his 6-6 in a relatively small pot, and took over the chip lead right off the bat. I continued to climb, and soon was over the half-million mark in chips.

Everything was going as planned. The night before, I had decided to fly in some supporters at the last minute to help celebrate a million-dollar day. My mother and brother flew in from Toronto, my good friend Evelyn Ng flew in from Las Vegas, and, of course, last but certainly not least, my girlfriend, Lori, flew in from Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Up to this point in the tournament, I'd won one monstrous pot (described in Part I), but other than that, my stack was built without risking too many chips in any one given hand. In fact, going into the final table, I'd played exactly four coin-flip hands all in before the flop. A coin-flip hand is a pair versus two overcards or two overcards versus a pair. Of those four coin flips, I had the pair three times and the overcards once. I was unlucky to lose all four of them, but being the chip leader with just six players remaining, I wasn't exactly complaining!

You'll often hear, "To win a tournament, you have to win your fair share of coin flips." I guess that has some truth to it, although most of the top players dread racing for large sums of chips. Why? Well, because they believe their edge would be bigger if they could avoid 50-50 confrontations and wait for better spots to invest their money. Now, I'm not a big fan of playing coin flips, either, but I'm not going to let anyone run over me – no way. If I have to go to war, I'll do what I have to do. As it turned out, this whole tournament came down to a couple of key coin flips for me, as you can probably tell from my summary thus far.

The first one came against Brian Haveson. Brian had been hot, having just come off a final-table finish a week earlier at the World Poker Tour event in Foxwoods. Fortunately, I had played with Brian throughout the tournament and believed I had a pretty good read on him. I had watched the final table at Foxwoods as well, so I had ample information on him that I planned on using against him to neutralize his positional edge on me (he was seated to my immediate left).

With the blinds at $3,000-$6,000 with a $1,000 ante, everyone folded to me in the small blind, and I found 10-10. As I'd done often against Brian in this same situation throughout the tournament (he was also on my immediate left on day three), I came in for a modest raise, to $16,000.

Up to this point, Brian hadn't played back at me in two days! He'd either fold, or call and see the flop. Sooner or later, I felt a reraise was coming, and here it came. Brian reraised me an additional $29,000, for a total of $45,000.

As I said earlier, I had been able to watch Brian a lot recently, and my read told me my 10-10 was good. In fact, I felt like my 10-10 was anywhere from a 2-1 favorite (against A-9, for example) to as big as a 4.5-to-1 favorite over a smaller pair.

I wasn't folding. The only question was, should I move him all in now or wait to see if the flop looks safe? Well, with so much money already in the pot, I wasn't about to let Brian catch a lucky flop, so I moved all in, leaving him with a decision for his $125,000.

Although I felt confident that I had the best hand, I truly didn't care if Brian called or folded. If he folded, I'd pick up a nice little profit, and if he called and I lost, I was still in decent shape, although it would be a big hit. The more Brian thought, the more I felt he had a smaller pair or A-K. There was no way he had me beat, I thought.

Finally, Brian called and turned over A-K. It was not the hand I was hoping to see, but that was OK. But wait, that's not OK; the flop came A-A-A! I was drawing completely dead on the flop.

I didn't let it phase me, though. I quickly regrouped and reassessed the situation. Brian was now the chip leader and I'd fallen below the average. It was time to readjust my strategy and get back to the grindstone. Without any playable hands for a few rounds, my chip count dipped just below $100,000, good for sixth place of six remaining players.

Still, I wasn't phased. I was confident that I could, and would, make a comeback. I picked off a few steal attempts, and before I knew it, I was back up over $280,000, good for third in chips.

By this time, the blinds had gone up to $5,000-$10,000 with a $1,000 ante. I was one off the button with J-J. I made it $30,000 to go and Brian once again came over the top of me. This time, I was even more sure than the last time that my jacks were golden. Brian made it a total of $90,000, so it was $60,000 back to me when both blinds folded. I counted out my chips and realized I could reraise Brian $190,000 more or just call the raise. Again, I wasn't about to throw my hand away. For $190,000 more, I thought Brian would be forced to lay down a hand like A-K or A-Q (both hands I'd want out before the flop). Once I counted out my stack, I quickly shot it toward the center, confident that I'd pick the pot up right there.

Once again, Brian went into the tank. After some deliberation, he announced, "I call." Again, he turned over A-K and I was back in familiar territory, but if I lost this one, I was out – in sixth place! The flop brought a lot of paint but no jack: K-Q-8. No help came on the turn and the river and my tournament was over.

In total, I played six coin flips in the tournament and went 0-6. Maybe that old adage is true: "In order to win a tournament, you have to win your fair share of coin flips." I'll try to remember that for next time.

Daniel can be reached through his website: www.fullcontactpoker.com.