'I'd Rather be Lucky Than Good'

I recently read an article in the New York Times in which someone from the meatpacking industry said, "Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good." This person was talking about his experience avoiding some mad cow disease issues. Wow! How true that is in business and life, as well as in poker.

At a poker fund-raiser last year, I said in jest, "I'd rather be lucky than good." A professional poker player sitting beside me very seriously replied, "I'd rather be lucky and good." Well, who wouldn't? But who has the time to be lucky and good? A professional poker player, that's who. In fact, if you're a pro, you better be great. And there are lots of things to be great at: playing your games, picking tables, playing stakes that don't overextend your bankroll, reading your opponents, keeping good records, taking bad beats, maintaining your confidence through losing streaks, not getting too cocky through winning streaks, not burning out, and so on. It has often been said that poker is "a tough way to make an easy living."

OK, most of us are going to keep our day jobs and stick to being recreational players. So, what's a leisure player to do? Have fun, that's what. Don't lose sight of the fact that poker is a hobby, a diversion, a recreational activity for you. So, how do you maximize your fun? I think that's a matter of personal preferences. I suspect that one common thread that probably binds most of us recreational players is taking more risks than professionals. Taking more risks can run a wide gamut – from one extreme of playing every hand you're dealt until it's time to go home, to the other extreme of playing one loose hand per day. Most recreational players probably fall somewhere in the middle of these extremes.

Whether playing poker professionally or not, what does the phrase "I'd rather be lucky than good" really mean in poker? Here are some situations:

. You get dealt great cards that "play themselves." All you have to do is fearlessly keep betting and raising, and then win a nice pot.

. You get dealt good cards that develop into the nuts, and you win a nice pot.

. You get dealt an OK hand that's playable, and end up winning a nice pot.

. You get dealt garbage in the big blind and check. You flop the nuts and win a nice pot.

. You have a winning hand, and one or two people are paying you off down to the river and financing a nice pot for you to collect. One of them is even raising you with the second-best hand!

. You're all in in a no-limit hold'em tournament with an underdog hand, and put a bad beat on the enemy. You win a nice pot and double through your opponent.

. You're all in in a no-limit hold'em tournament with a hand that's the favorite, and it holds up. You knock out or cripple the enemy, win a nice pot, and move up the ladder.

. You find that every time you play a hand, you win a pot. You're on a winning streak!

So, what does it mean to be good? That's the easy part. You can control your skill level by doing your homework and reading some books, but you can't control your luck! I'd like to share some of my favorite lucky hands with you:

On my first trip to Las Vegas about 15 years ago, I was ready to leave the hotel where I was staying to go home, but I had an hour to kill. So, I sat down to play hold'em for the first time in my life in a tight $4-$8-$8-$16 game. When I had about five minutes left to catch the shuttle to the airport, one player raised, another player called, and I called with Q-J offsuit. The flop came Q-Q-J and the turn and river were rags. On the river, I check-raised and got called by a player holding A-Q. As I was getting up to leave with my $200 profit, a player suggested, with a hint of sarcasm, that I stay and teach them how to play the game. I explained that I had a plane to catch, but I'd be back. It was an ideal way to end my first trip to Las Vegas . I came back to Las Vegas a few times . each time a little wiser and a little luckier.

I recently played some $4-$8 hold'em in a loose home game. I had 6-3 offsuit in the small blind with three people in, and the pot was $14. I think that hand is generally considered unplayable under any circumstances except checking it in the big blind. If you look at the pot odds, I was getting a shot at $14 with a $2 call (7-to-1 odds). Even those pot odds aren't big enough! The implied pot odds if I hit my hand may or may not have been big enough, but I hadn't played a hand in a while and it was time for me to play one, so I threw in my two bucks. Of course, I flopped 5-4-2 and ended up winning a nice pot with the nut straight. Now, that's what I'm talking about when I say, "I'd rather be lucky than good!"

OK, enough small talk. Since winning the 2002 World Series of Poker , one of the most common questions I get is, "Did you get lucky?" Of course I did. In fact, everyone who makes a final table gets lucky a few times along the way. To win the "Big One," it takes a combination of skill and guts, as well as some good luck. However, luck alone isn't all you need to win a major tournament. You have to be playing your best game and staying focused on the many factors to consider in each hand, including getting a good read on the opposition. Here are what I consider to be my luckiest hands from the 2002 WSOP . With the help of the handy, dandy Poker Odds Calculator at CardPlayer.com, I've included what my chances of winning were (expressed in percentages) in each hand once the chips were all in and the hands were turned up.

1. On day one, with a small stack, I was getting desperate to play a hand before my chips were all gone, and went all in with J-10 offsuit. I watched in amazement when another small stack called with something like Q-5 offsuit. My chance of winning was 46 percent before the flop, which isn't too bad. I thought I was dead meat when the flop came 6-5-3 , but I was resurrected when the turn and the river were a 7 and a 4 for a straight on the board, giving me a split pot! That's lucky!

2. With one minute left on day two, I was feeling low on chips to start the next day. I was dealt A-K and raised. Two players went all in and I wasn't happy about that. Both players had about the same amount of chips as me, and I figured they also wanted to start the next day with a stronger chip count, so I called. They both turned up Q-Q. My chance of winning was 51 percent, basically a coin flip. I flopped an ace, went on to win the hand, and started day three in 21st place out of 100-plus players left in the field. That's a little lucky!

3. Early in day three, I was getting short on chips again and got it all in with A-Q suited. I got a caller who flipped up K-K and another guy who said he folded K-K. Before the flop, I had a 36 percent chance of winning the hand, which under the circumstances wasn't as bad as I would have thought. I flopped an ace and moved on . that's pretty lucky!

4. Later in day three, I got moved to the toughest table with by far the largest concentration of chips of any remaining table. At this point, we were getting close to being in the money. I think most of us could smell it, as if it had just rolled off the U.S. Treasury printing presses. I looked around the table and recognized Chip Reese, Phil Hellmuth, and several other faces. It wasn't a pretty picture! I settled in, and then it happened! I raised with Q-10 suited from late position, Phil reraised, I went all in, and he called my bluff. I was disappointed that he called, but I was also pleasantly surprised that he had only A-K suited and not one of the big pairs. Before the flop, I had a 38 percent chance of winning – not good, but not that bad. The flop came A-Q-10 with rags on the turn and river. I doubled through Phil and left him crippled. That was lucky!

5. On day five at the final table, when we were down to four players, Scott Grey went all in with a relatively small stack. After thinking briefly about the sizes of the raise, the pot, and my stack, I called with Q-10 offsuit. He showed A-9 offsuit. Preflop, I had a 43 percent chance of winning. The flop came Q-Q-X with ace, 9 on the turn, river. I out-flopped Scott right out of the tournament. That was an incredibly lucky flop!

6. Now, here's my luckiest hand of all at the final table. Julian Gardner and I had been playing heads up for about a half-hour when I looked down to find myself holding the seemingly magical secret weapon. That's right, Q-10 offsuit. He called my raise preflop and then check-raised me all in after a flop of Q-4-4 with two clubs. I figured he was probably on the flush draw and called to see his J 8. I now had a 66 percent chance of winning the hand. The turn was the 10, giving him an inside-straight draw in addition to the flush draw. He got his flush on the river with the 10. Unfortunately for Julian, that wasn't one of the clubs he was looking for, because that one gave me the full house to win the championship. Now, that's what I call lucky !

In conclusion, as a good friend of mine once put it, "In life, you need some luck."

Robert is the 2002 World Poker Champion and the instructor on the "WiseGuys On Texas Hold'em" videos starring some famous actors from the Sopranos. The videos are very informative as well as entertaining. They're available at wiseguyson.com.