A Bluff Destined to Succeed

The game was $10-$20 seven-card stud. I was in seat No. 8, and as the only player who folded on third street , I played the role of observer for the remainder of the hand. I don't remember all of the cards, so I will use an X in those instances. For the most part, those cards were unimportant, anyway. Also, the suits of the cards mattered for only one player, as you will see.

Fourth street looked like this:

Seat 1: 9-10

Seat 2: K-10

Seat 3: X-X

Seat 4: 5 4

Seat 5: 7-7

Seat 6: X-X

Seat 7: X-X

Seat 5 was high with an open pair of sevens, but he had only $12 left in front of him. He bet all in, seats 6 and 7 folded, but seats 1 through 4 all called.

Fifth-street boards were as follows:

Seat 1: 9-10-10

Seat 2: K-10-3

Seat 3: X-X-X

Seat 4: 5 4 8

Seat 5: 7-7-2

Seat 1 – let's call him Sam – was now high with an open pair of tens, and he bet $20. Everyone called, creating an $80 side pot. I can't remember seat 3's board because it was so non-threatening. Combined with the fact that he was an extremely loose-passive player, I remember thinking he probably had the least business being in the pot.

Sixth street is where the fun began. Here's how it looked:

Seat 1: 9-10-10-2

Seat 2: K-10-3-8

Seat 3: X-X-X-X

Seat 4: 5 4 8 9

Seat 5: 7-7-2-7

Seat 5 caught three open sevens, but he was all in, so the action went to Sam. He checked, while looking thoroughly disgusted. Seats 2 and 3 also checked, but then seat 4 – let's call him Eric – came out betting. Simultaneously, seats 1 through 3 all leaned forward in their chairs to get a better look at Eric's cards. I remember how comical their synchronized surprise was; it was as if it came straight out of a Three Stooges sketch. Sam leaned back, looked at seat 5's trip sevens, then looked back at Eric's board, nodded knowingly, and folded. Seats 2 and 3 quickly folded, as well.

The dealer pushed Eric the $80 side pot, and then Eric surprised everyone by pushing his cards facedown toward the dealer, without even waiting for the river card! When Sam asked him what he was doing, Eric simply said, "I can't beat three sevens."

"But you haven't seen your last card yet!"

"It doesn't matter. I can't beat three sevens."

"You don't have a flush? Wait a minute, let me see his cards!"

The dealer obliged by dealing the river cards facedown, then tapping the muck with Eric's holecards and showing the A 5 that he had started with. This caused Sam to go unnecessarily ballistic (in my opinion). He chimed on about how he folded tens and nines, figuring he was up against a flush, and how Eric could make such a dumb play. Meanwhile, Eric sat there quietly and prepared to play the next hand, seemingly unfazed by Sam's babbling.

Was it a Dumb Play or a Great One?

We can start by examining it from an odds point of view. Eric was risking $20 to win $80, the amount of the side pot. (In terms of pot odds, ignore the main pot, since we can assume that seat 5 will win it.) That means that if the bluff succeeds 20 percent of the time, he will break even in the long run (he'll lose $20 the four times it doesn't work, but win $80 the one time it does). So, if the bluff will succeed more than 20 percent of the time, he should go for it. In my rough estimation, this bluff will work about 90 percent of the time! In other words, it's unquestionably the right play. The funny thing is, in similar situations, it's probably attempted no more than 10 percent of the time!

So, What Gives?

First off, let's look at the general situation that gives a bluff like this such a great chance for success:

1. The other players know they are drawing either slim or dead to win the main pot.

2. They assume Eric wouldn't be betting unless he could beat the all-in player.

3. Eric's boardcards support that possibility.

Therefore, they abandon their claim to the side pot, figuring there's no point in contesting for it if they can't win the main pot. On every count, their logic is correct (other than the fact that it doesn't account for the possibility of a bluff), which is why such a bluff will almost always work.

So, with such a great chance for success, why are similar bluffs attempted so rarely? My guess is that players generally lose interest when they have a weak hand and there's a player all in. They figure since that player can't be bluffed out, there's no point in even considering a bluff. Obviously, this would be true if there were no side pot, but the presence of a significant side pot should renew your interest in the hand. Also realize that your opponents will never expect a bluff with a player all in. Think about it – would you expect one? So, throw them a little curve. You'll probably pick up the side pot, and if you have an opponent like Sam, you might put one of your opponents on tilt in the process.

The Verdict: Great Play by Eric

Eric's starting hand was very solid – split fives with an ace kicker and two hearts. By sixth street , he still hadn't received any help for his hand, so it would have been understandable if he had chosen to throw in the towel. The overwhelming majority of players would do just that. Instead, he took advantage of his scary-looking board and ran a bluff that stood an outstanding chance for success. He was drawing completely dead to win the main pot, but that doesn't take away from the fact that his bet on sixth street was truly an excellent play.

Eric picked up four big bets that almost everyone else wouldn't have won. The mark of a good poker player is the ability to recognize the correct play in situations that don't come up very often. That's what you have here, and that's what you should strive for.

Matt can be found playing online at www.royalvegaspoker.com, where he is a member of its team of experts. You can also find other articles of his in Online Poker News, which is at www.cardplayer.com .