Thinking a Good Game Early in the Season

I've mentioned in these pages several times before that handicapping, more than anything else, is a mind game. You're not only matching wits against the oddsmaker, you're testing your own knowledge of the game and (when it comes to money management) your self-discipline. You'll usually find that the perennially successful bettors are those who handle the mind game well. Here are some early-season reminders:

Start with a clean slate as you evaluate teams. Don't get bogged down by preconceived notions. Each team, each year, tends to take on its own personality and chemistry. Some key injuries or other problems might have been most responsible for a team's previous year's performance. Those problems might not carry over to the new season. And last year's outstanding teams might not stay as healthy or get as many breaks from the schedule this year as they did last. Put your pluses and minuses on a clean slate for each team based on this season's performance, not last year's, or you'll miss teams such as Hawaii in '99 (9-4 straight up and 8-4 against the spread after going 0-12 and 2-8-2), St. Louis in '99 (went 14-4 vs. the spread and won the Super Bowl after a 4-12 season), or South Carolina of 2000 (8-4 straight up and 9-3 vs. the spread after an 0-11 season).

Watch for developing players. All players were not stars immediately. Good players tend to develop as they grow bigger, stronger, and smarter, get good coaching, and end up in the right "situation." Remember that Terry Bradshaw was severely criticized early in his career (and then ended up the QB of four Super Bowl winners), Steve Young was a bust in Tampa Bay, and Brett Favre went through growing pains in Green Bay. It took a couple of years of good coaching in Green Bay for Favre to emerge. Allow your mind to be flexible. Give your eyes a chance to help you.

Watch for declining players. Even the best of the best finally run out the string. How sad was it to see the great Willie Mays in baseball misplaying a flyball during his twilight weeks with the Mets, or the usually accurate Troy Aikman battling concussions and throwing 14 interceptions (vs. only seven TD passes) last year with the Cowboys?

"Prices" are "sticky" on the way down. That's why you should always be on the lookout for descending teams and declining players. If a team or a player has developed a large following by the sports-betting public over an extended period of time, oddsmakers are usually slow in lowering the pointspread to meet actual performance. Such situations often present lots of pointspread value on opponents for a period of weeks before the public's opinion of such teams actually bottoms out.

Don't let a team's first performance leave a lasting impression with you. This is called "The Primacy Effect." If you see a team on TV early in the season, you must give your mind the flexibility to imagine changes, whether good or bad, before you see it again. Remember that each game becomes a unique entity – and its own little minidrama – in and of itself. The matchups, injuries, turnovers, weather, and motivation figure to be different each game as the season goes on.

Don't let a team's most recent performance overly affect you. This is known as the "Recency Effect." Experienced handicappers know that most teams are not really as good as they look when they're winning big and not really as bad as they look when they're getting slugged. Moreover, it's the nature of the players and coaches these days to work harder and better after a big loss and to savor the limelight after a big win. Know when to anticipate a regression to the mean.

Don't allow big scores early in the season to distort your thinking. Remember, there are many early-season mismatches in college football. The games usually become tougher when a team begins its conference schedule and has to take on familiar rivals at tough venues. It's who a team beats that usually shows how good it is, not how big its wins are. A team that scores a lot of points doesn't necessarily impress me as much as a team that shuts down the opposition or gives up no points.

Don't be fooled by all the media talk about "strength of schedule." Most of those strength-of-schedule conversations have to do with how this year's list of opponents did last year. It's OK to use that as a point of departure, but this year's teams are not playing last year's teams; they're playing this year's teams. Use a little "Kentucky windage" when judging how tough a team's current schedule actually is.

Analyze your losses. If a wager doesn't work out, did you lose because you're stupid, or because you were unlucky. You're stupid only if you went against the percentages, such as taking a struggling team in a negative situation at a bad pointspread, or overemphasizing psychology and ignoring the fundamentals, and so on, your analysis of a team was way off. You're not stupid if you analyzed the teams well and "shopped" for a good pointspread, and then the game just didn't work out. You must learn to set aside the negative emotions attached to losing your money and analyze each past wager from the proper perspective.

If you're analyzing teams well (Isn't trying to do that the challenge of it?), waiting for positive situations, shopping for good numbers, and managing your bankroll with discipline, you should be able to get ahead of the game early in the season and stay there

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the "bible" for sports bettors since 1957. To get more angles, power ratings, and emerging-player information, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like a complimentary copy, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and state that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.