Winning Habits in Hoops

It should come as no surprise that as sports betting has become more available nationwide, sportsbooks have gone out of their way to increase the options in order to entertain, and possibly confuse, the bettor. We have discussed this understandable tactic before, and it is more prominent than ever in basketball this season.

As in football, there are more options for the hoop handicapper. This season, a couple of new leagues and several new teams have been added to the main Las Vegas line in college hoops. Also, the Las Vegas schedule offers "Added Games" each day, usually involving the best games of the upper-echelon "minor conferences," such as the Southern and Metro Atlantic Athletic conferences. Totals are routinely offered on all TV games. Lastly, a few offshore "outlets" post totals on all college basketball games. On many Saturdays, there are more than 100 games available for wagering; on some Wednesdays, more than 50.

This is a lot of enticing action. But, unless you have a very large sports betting bankroll and/or are very well-versed in college and pro hoops, you better be careful, or you're going to be playing into the hands of the sportsbooks. Here are some general concepts to help you:

Don't guess at games. Yes, virtually every sports bet is a "guess." But, if you're doing your homework, it's always an educated guess that turns the odds in your favor in predicting the unknown outcome of an event yet to happen. If you don't know anything about the participants in a game, perhaps it's best to back off.

Use disciplined money management. The saddest thing in handicapping is someone who is picking a solid percentage of winners but is losing money due to poor money management. Never chase your money. Never double or triple up on a game you previously were interested in just because one of your higher-percentage plays didn't work out.

Use power ratings to cut down your list. Power ratings help you recognize when you're getting pointspread value and when you're giving up pointspread value. And they help you uncover situations that might involve injuries or suspensions you didn't know about. For any single game, you might be able to win even if laying an "extra" two or three points above your power ratings on a favorite (or by taking two or three points fewer on an underdog). The situation (that is, matchups, revenge, difficult travel, humiliation) might set up well even if the pointspread isn't in your favor, as indicated by your power ratings. However, over a long period of time, laying two or three (or more) additonal points on a game than you should (or taking two or three fewer points than you should be getting) is a recipe for draining your bank account into those of the sportsbooks. If you find yourself making 12, 15, or 20 hoop wagers on a weekend, take a step back and ask yourself whether you know the teams that well.

Be ready for more volatility in your bankroll. Much like a loose, fast-moving game of poker, be ready for your "chips" (that is, your bankroll) to go up and down a little faster in basketball season than in football season. Football, with its fewer, longer, and less frequent games, tends to lend itself to somewhat slower, steadier bankroll growth over the course of the season for the good handicapper. But even the best of the best handicappers take more than a few buzzer-beating or last-minute losses in basketball season – sometimes a couple in a row, or several in a weekend. It's the nature of the sport these days, with the "cheap" three-pointers and inconsistent free-throw shooting by many players. Over the long haul, however, if you know what you're doing and have "good numbers," you're going to win your share.

Consider using smaller betting units in basketball. Because of the number of games and greater volatility in basketball, you should consider starting with a smaller betting unit than in football, perhaps 50 percent or 60 percent of your normal football wager. If you do well, increase the size; if you do poorly, cut down the size of your wager until you hit a winning streak.

Try to maintain balance in your wagers. Generally speaking, if you repeatedly load up your list with home teams, or with favorites, or with big underdogs, you could be asking for trouble. The oddsmakers love to "jack up" the pointspread on the "public" teams. And they love to cut back on the points available for "hot" teams when they're an underdog. It is good to have a check on yourself to see that you're maintaining a decent balance between home teams and visitors, favorites and underdogs. If your style of handicapping allows you to do significantly better in one category over another (it happens some seasons), look to go where the winners are.

Lastly, beware of the psychology in the game. Research has shown that revenge is often overrated in sports once the pointspread is involved. But, with the long seasons these days, it is inevitable that some games are more important to some teams than to an opponent. If you bet on a team, you at least want to be sure that "your team" will try hard, even if its opponent will do the same. This is one of the reasons that coaching is more directly important in more basketball games than football games. Most good coaches can rally their teams if they start out "flat." Big leads mean less these days; 20-point advantages can disappear in 10 minutes in both the colleges and the NBA. The worst thing you can do is ignore psychology totally and then wager on a game in which your team loses the cover in the first five minutes and never threatens to regain it.

Hoop fans, if you don't have time to keep your own basketball power ratings, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand. We also offer key statistics, game-by-game forecasts, insider reports, and recent results. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to receive a complimentary sample copy with no obligation, call (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and say that you read about The Gold Sheet in Card Player. You can check the web at www.goldsheet.com.