The Golden Blend: A Mix of Skill and Luck

As this column goes to press, I am probably in flight from Reno, where I played the Reno Hilton's World Poker Challenge, to Tunica, where I will be playing during the final week of the World Poker Open. It is unfortunate that so many of us tournament players were forced to make a choice between these two great major tournaments because of their overlapping dates, which resulted from the World Poker Open changing its dates from April to January, and I hope this problem will be resolved in 2003. When two big tournaments go head-to-head, tournament players suffer by being deprived of an opportunity to play in a major event, the tournaments suffer from lower attendance at each venue, and tournament dealers are at a premium.

At the Reno Hilton's fine tournament, I was fortunate enough to make two final tables, one of which was the $500 no-limit hold'em event, which I hosted. J.J. Bortner, another final-table finisher, and I also placed in that event last year, but Bortner suffered a beat when she took pocket aces against Don Thompson's pocket kings and went out in ninth place when Thompson flopped a set of cowboys. There was plenty of time to play at the final table – Max Shapiro said in his report, "The game was no-limit, but it should've been called 'no time limit.'" – so players could use their tournament skills to full advantage. The slower the limits go up, the more important tournament skills become. The faster the limits go up, the more the luck factor dominates. This is one reason why I like Tex Morgan's TEARS tournament structure, which is used by the impressive tournament staff at the Reno Hilton.

If poker were purely a game of skill, the best players would win all the time, but we all know that doesn't happen. The luck factor is higher in tournaments than in side games because of the escalating limits and the infrequency of getting premium starting hands during a compressed time period. I don't want to disillusion anyone, but in tournaments with world-class fields of contestants whose skills are fairly equal, the player who catches the best cards that particular day and plays them well is the contender most likely to win the tournament. Therefore, because so many world-class players enter the major tournaments, no one has a huge edge over anyone else. Of course, players with lesser skills will sometimes win a tournament or finish high in the money, which happens often enough to encourage them to continue entering tournaments. However, it doesn't happen so often that it should discourage better players, because skill will dominate over luck in the long run. Even in World Series of Poker events, I sometimes have seen a player who may not have been of the very highest caliber make it to the final table. But, I have never seen a player win a WSOP event who could even remotely be labeled as "weak," no matter how lucky he was. In fact, the more skill you have, the better chance you will have to get lucky.

There is no magic formula for longevity in a tournament. I can't begin to list the number of players with whom I have spoken about tournament play and what happens when you get to that $150-$300 or $200-$400 round (the fifth or sixth round of the event). We all agree that you just have to make hands at those betting levels. You can't manufacture a hand that doesn't exist. Instead, you must play a patient, controlled game in order to give yourself a chance to get lucky. If you play too recklessly with marginal hands and get knocked out early, you obviously won't make it to the higher levels, where you'll have a good chance of winning if your hands hold up.

Although luck is always a factor, it is tournament skill that maximizes your opportunity to win. In tournaments, a lot of the skill is in knowing how to survive long enough to get lucky. The more correct decisions you make in the earlier rounds, the greater your chances of surviving to the later rounds and getting a good rush of cards. What separates the very best players from the others is knowing how to make the most of the rush when it comes.

"Amarillo Slim" Preston knows how to play rushes – a tip of the Stetson to this poker legend for his first-place finish in the $500 Omaha high-low split event at the World Poker Challenge. If you and I can get the golden balance of skill and luck working for us, maybe we'll meet Slim in the winner's circle one day soon.

Editor's note: Tom McEvoy is the author of Tournament Poker, in which valuable tournament play concepts are explained in detail. Visit the web at www.pokerbooks.com for more information on Tournament Poker and McEvoy's other books.