A Hand for the Ages

It's 1 a.m., which wouldn't be such a big deal had you not told your woman that you'd be home by midnight. Forget that it's a Wednesday night and you have to give a presentation at 8 a.m., you're losing – $80 and a whole lot of pride.

The game is five-card draw and you're dealt a pair of aces, a pair of threes, and a deuce. The maximum bet before the draw is $2, and you keep your snicker to yourself as Louie, the player to your left, bets. Including you, there are six players in the game, and everyone calls except Ron, the resident tightwad.

When Louie draws three cards, you know that he has only a pair and isn't much of a threat. Two other players do the same before Mo knuckles the table. Wow, he's standing pat, which you know means that he's either bluffing or has a made hand – at worst a straight. You draw one, but can't bear to look.

Louie is first to act and checks. The next two players also check before it gets to Mo, who checks as well. Suddenly, it's your turn to act, but before you do, you try to figure out why Mo checked. Because you raised before the draw, he may be sandbagging. The old check-raise is Mo's forte.

You finally decide to look at the card you drew. But you don't just look at it, you have to squeeeeeze it, not so much to add to the drama, but because you are terrified to look. As you start to squeeze, you see nothing but white space. Could it be the A?

As Marv Albert would say: Yes!

You bet $5. Louie folds, as do the next two players, and it's up to Mo. "Make it 10," he says, check-raising, just as you thought. But this time you have aces full – time to show that sandbagger.

"I'll see it and raise you five more," you say, as the pot has grown to more than 50 bucks, not to mention the five more you'll get when Mo calls your raise. But he doesn't comply. Instead, he raises again.

Up until this point, you assumed that he had been dealt a made hand, such as a straight or a flush. Since the odds are 693-to-1 that he was dealt a full house, you figure that's unlikely, and even if he had, it wouldn't beat your aces full. But wait a second. Mo is no dummy, and he has to know that you wouldn't keep raising without a big hand. So, the question is: What does he think you have?

Since you drew one card, he may think you made a straight or a flush. But he's also smart enough to know that you're not the type of player who raises before the draw on the come. So, he had to figure you for having two pair. And after your reraise after the draw, he now has to believe that you made your full house. So, why is he still raising?

It may be because he thinks he has a big full house, such as kings full. You raise again. Without even hesitating, Mo says, "Make it 30." The good news is that there's now more than $80 in the pot. The bad news is that you know that Mo knows that you have a full house, and he keeps raising. You stop to think again.

The odds of Mo being dealt four of a kind are 4,164-to-1, but besides, if he were dealt four of a kind, you know him well enough to know that he would have drawn a card, just to make his hand look less intimidating. So, you rule that out, and raise again.

"Make it 40," says Mo.

Now you're all but convinced that he was dealt a straight flush. Since you can't win the pot, you decide to come up with Plan B. "Hey, Ron," you say to the tightwad, who is a professional statistician. "What are the odds of being dealt a straight flush on the first five cards?"

"64,973-to-1," says Ron.

"Are you kiddin' me," says Louie, who you're not even sure can count that high. "How many zeros is that?"

"Make it two zeros," you say to Louie. "I'll bet you 100-to-1 that he's got a straight flush – my buck to your C-note."

"I've been playing poker 20 years," says Louie, "and I ain't never seen no one dealt a straight flush right off the deal. You're on."

When you ask Mo to turn over his hand, he says, "Not until you see the bet."

So now it's going to cost you another five bucks to see the hand, bringing the total pot to more than $100. As far as you're concerned, the drama is over. If he's got the straight flush, you win $100 from Louie. If he doesn't, you win the $100 in the pot.

You throw in the five bucks, quite proud of yourself for putting together this remarkable hedge. Mo, perhaps to add drama to this little affair, or maybe because he's always loved to jerk you around, decides that he'll turn his cards over one at a time.

The first card is the K; next is the K.

"Pay up," screams Louie, and you gladly throw him a buck; 64,973-to-1 shots don't come in that often. When the third card he turns over is the K, followed by the 10, you start kicking yourself for not having raised him more.

"I thought you might have had kings full," you say, as you show him your aces full. "If you'd had the four of a kind, you wouldn't have stood pat."

"Nice read," Mo says, as he turns over his fifth and final card – the K.

Greg Dinkin is the author of The Poker MBA: Winning in Business No Matter What Cards You're Dealt, which will be published by Random House's Crown Business imprint in April 2002. For another great story – plus a joker – send an E-mail to [email protected], subject heading, Strip Poker.