Cigars or Golf: The Future of Poker

Forget about being able to afford it, much less justify it, but let's say that somehow, you manage to lie, cheat, and steal enough to buy your way into the 2004 World Series. While you keep telling yourself you're there to win, you've also told yourself that your goal for day one is simply to survive. You can worry about doubling up on day two; your focus now is to hold on to your chips.

On the second hand of the tournament, you're sitting on the button with two black aces, and after two moderate-size raises, the player to your right comes over the top for $7,500. In spite of what you told yourself about surviving, you can't throw away the hand. But since you figure that you can't get the last raiser to fold and the other players can't call anyway, you decide to just call.

The flop comes K Q J.

Now how do you feel?

Probably the way I do about this column. You see, in my last column, "Tipping Point of Poker," I wrote about how poker has become a phenomenon, and promised that I would examine in this column if it will last. The problem is that I have no earthly idea what the answer is! That's because just as trying to predict what will take off is near impossible, it might be even harder to determine what will last. For all you owls out there, how many of you bet that the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn't win half their games in 2003?

Think about why cigars got so hot in the mid-'90s. Was it just dumb luck or was it a well-orchestrated marketing plan by those who had the most to gain from this resurgence? I don't know myself, but I could have guessed that it wasn't going to be sustainable. Trying to market a product in a regulatory environment that is clamping down on smoking is tough. It's even tougher when the product's chief benefit is looking cool, since cool is, by its very nature, about as mercurial as the weather in March in New York City.

Golf, on the other hand, offers benefits beyond cool. It's a great game for business or bonding amongst friends. It's socially accepted. While it's not exactly rigorous exercise, it makes people feel good about themselves for getting in a decent workout. It's challenging to the point that it can never be solved. This makes the game "sticky"; once you start playing, you want to play more, and the desire to play becomes insatiable. Sound familiar?

Unlike cigars, which had to contend with legislation banning smoking from bars and just about everywhere else, there are no specific threats to people's love for golf. But what golf, a hit television show, and even a gorgeous model have to worry about is the simple notion that people get sick of things. How and why it happens is beyond the scope of my knowledge, but in a world where we continue to have more and more choices with our time, some things simply fall out of favor. I mean, when's the last time you sat down to play Trivial Pursuit – a game that was the rage in the '80s?

To look at poker's future, I think you have to start with the three things that led to its tipping point in the first place: legislation, the Internet, and television. Just as they were catalysts for poker's growth, they also hold the key to poker's exploding future – or its impending doom.

First, I don't see legislation as a major threat. Foxwoods isn't closing its doors anytime soon, and if it did, the universe of players is well defined enough that private games would form to meet the demand. Along those lines, there is much more risk that Internet poker could face legal sanctions. The New York Times reported on March 19 that the profits from online gambling remained the same, at $3 billion, from 1999 to 2003 because of laws preventing players from using credit cards and PayPal for gambling transactions. Moreover, many of the networks have cancelled advertising from online poker rooms. So, yes, this is a legitimate threat, but I just can't see an environment in which there isn't a poker game in cyberspace. There may be restrictions, but there will always be games.

As for television, viewers are a fickle lot, and who knows who will be tuning in to watch poker in five years. But poker, like golf, benefits from the educational value of its programs, giving it a much more secure market. Dismal ratings from NHL broadcasts are showing that people are sick of watching hockey, but those who are watching aren't actually playing the game, like poker.

In short, poker has so much going for it as a national pastime:

• Everyone can play, and unlike sports, there is no discrimination based on physical attributes.

• As evidenced by dozens of my own 20-plus-hour sessions, the game is sticky as hell.

• We like getting something for nothing, and as the stock market continues to show how little control an investor has, poker has given people an outlet to make money with more control.

• People like to be right, and love an intellectual challenge.

• We covet competition, and because our society is getting lazier, poker meets the need without having to stretch or ice our knees.

• Humans enjoy social interaction, and poker is a people game.

In spite of all the reasons I listed why poker stands to flourish in the future, I stand by my initial assertion that I can't begin to predict poker's future. But given the evidence, poker seems to resemble golf much more than cigars. Unfortunately, while making a birdie is tough, it seems like getting a pair of aces to hold up is even tougher!

Greg Dinkin is the author of three books, including The Poker MBA and Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People. He is also the co-founder of Venture Literary, www.ventureliterary.com.