Know When to Hold 'Em

While searching through some old notes, mostly bridge hands, I came across an interesting hold'em note I had scribbled back in the mid-'80s and then apparently edited sometime later. It read, "No-limit hold'em is a game of seizing the right moment!" ("And avoiding seizing the wrong moment!") ("And not getting unlucky after seizing the right moment!") Each of the two parenthetical remarks had been added at a later time.

I immediately thought of the Kenny Rogers song and the old days of Prince George's County, Maryland (where "charitable gambling" was once legal), where I first started playing in no-limit hold'em tournaments. An old gambler once advised me that no-limit hold'em is a game in which you seize the moment. You just sit back and wait for a hand with which you can push in all of your chips.

But I soon learned that you should not "seize the moment" every time you pick up a good hand. One very important survival skill in no-limit is to avoid situations in which you make a sizable bet and someone lays a big all-in raise on you when you might be tempted to call (for example, you flop top pair with an ace kicker). Although you might occasionally pick off a big bluff, calling usually ends up in a big loss.

But then I learned that winning no-limit hold'em tournaments simply boils down to being lucky enough to win a few critical hands, especially those that you are supposed to win. You must be lucky enough to win the hands in which you get someone all in before the flop against your pocket aces! And, of course, you must also be lucky enough to win your share of the inevitable "coin tosses" (usually a pocket pair versus two overcards).

Having read that old note, I did not have to wait long before it saved me some money. On the third hand of the nightly RoyalVegasPoker no-limit hold'em tournament, I picked up pocket aces. I thought to myself that I would rather have them later, but I might as well try to "seize the moment."

Each player had started with $1,000 in chips and the blinds were only $5-$10. There had been one call and one fold around to me. With a mere $25 in the pot, I thought it would be wrong to make a big raise, like $50 or more, because it was too likely that everyone would fold.

Although I didn't want everyone to fold, I certainly didn't want too many callers, because then my odds of winning would be substantially reduced. It would be very dangerous to just call, because then there might be five or six players seeing the flop. In a "family pot" (where many players see the flop), no flop is safe. Even a 7-4-2 or 9-6-3 might have several players drawing for straights. And any two cards of the same suit might give someone a flush draw.

So, I made a compromise "screening" raise (a small raise), making it $25 to go. There was only one cold-caller following me, and the big blind and the first caller each put in $15 more. A K-5-3 rainbow (three different suits) flopped. It was checked around to me. What would you do in this situation?

If I checked, the cold-caller on my left might bet, and might get a caller. Then, I could make a huge check-raise. But if the cold-caller also checked, giving everyone a free card, that could be disastrous.

So, I bet $75, a "measured" bet (two to three times the previous bet). Note that if someone raised all in, I might well have folded. That is why I didn't bet more. At this point, I had only one-tenth of my chips in the pot. Hands like this, when you are pushing the high pair, are among the most dangerous in no-limit hold'em, and you must learn to stay flexible and uncommitted. You do not want to exit the event early because of one unlucky "little" hand.

The cold-caller on my left raised it to $200. The other two players folded. What would you do in this situation?

Although the raiser could have a set (three of a kind), he might well have merely a "big king" (a king with a big kicker). I was not about to give up the hand – at least not at this juncture. A test reraise here would not really clarify the situation and would get me more involved. So, I simply called. The turn card was an 8, which was unlikely to help my opponent unless he had started with pocket eights. I checked. He thought for a while, and made an "inconsistent" check.

The last card was another 8. This looked like a good card for me, in that it didn't rate to help him and it gave me aces up. What would you do here? Since I was playing online, there were no "tells." We each had about $775 in chips left.

I'm sympathetic if you chose to bet. It is likely that you have the best hand. I would certainly bet in limit poker. But this was no-limit poker, and as my above-mentioned note advised, it is best to avoid situations in which you would be very dubious of an all-in raise. Here, I would be betting into a spastic raiser with a hand that had not really improved much. So, I checked.

He bet $300. I was glad that I hadn't bet. It looked like he was trying to "milk" me. He probably would have bet more if he was bluffing. He probably bet only $300 to make it easier for me to call. But I certainly had to call, because he might have been betting a big king or something less.

Would you believe that he held J-8 suited? It is mind-boggling to lose a hand like that! At the point that he raised, it was about 100-to-1 against him (1/9 × 1/11) that he would end up with the best hand. But it was good that I did not bet, and avoided being knocked out of the tournament. After surviving that disaster, I managed to come back and finish in the money.

You gotta know when to hold 'em. Is that song only about playing poker?