Peeling One Off

We all know the "peeler." The flop comes. An opponent bets. The peeler looks at the bet, looks at his own cards, looks at the flop, and finally says, "Ah, I'll see one more card!" Unless he is an actor of Academy Award proportions, he's probably calling with a hand he should be folding. He's the type of player who cannot sleep at night if the next card off the deck is the one that makes his hand, and he's not there to get it. He is employing the common practice of peeling one off, and chances are, he does it far too often.

Are you a peeler? You could be. I've seen lots of you out there. It's OK; I'm not here to preach to you. I know it's a hard habit to break. It would be like telling a smoker never to touch another cigarette. That would be a little drastic, wouldn't it? I'd rather tell him to cut down on his smoking gradually, instead of insisting that he immediately go cold turkey.

The same goes for you guys who peel one off. I know you're going to do it every now and then. Just do it in moderation. If you spend one small bet, see the turn card, and then fold when it doesn't help you, that's bad, but not terrible. The important thing is to avoid making the bigger mistake; namely, if the turn card doesn't help you, don't look for more excuses to remain in the hand.

Our hero Jackie Brown was in a $3-$6 hold'em game. She called from middle position with 4-4. No problem there. Five players saw the flop, which came Q-7-6, obviously not what she was hoping for. There was a bet and a call in front of her, and she decided to peel one off.

A low pocket pair is pretty easy to play. All you need is a "no set, no bet" mentality: If you don't flop a set, you don't make (or call) a bet. You're not getting the proper pot odds to try to spike a set on the turn. Plus, there's no guarantee that someone else didn't flop a set, in which case you're drawing dead. There's always the small chance that you have the best hand, but in the long run, you're better off folding anytime someone bets and you have a low, unimproved pocket pair. Nevertheless, Jackie decided to see the turn card, as so many players do.

The next card off was an 8. Again, there was a bet and a call in front of her, and again she decided to call. The river card was a deuce, for a final board of Q-7-6-8-2. The same player bet, the next one folded, and now she was the only opponent left. She called, her opponent showed K-Q, and she ended up spending $18 on a hand that was worth only $3.

Surely, you see the point I am making. If she decides to call on the flop, it's a mistake, but only a $3 mistake. And even then she has some equity on that $3, because there's always the slight chance that she'll spike a 4 on the turn. It's when the questionable call on the flop leads to even worse calls on the turn and river that her play becomes a more serious poker faux pas.

She probably figured she would call to see the turn, and if it wasn't a 4, she would fold. But then the 8 gave her a gutshot-straight draw, and she changed her mind. Is the gutshot really enough to warrant a call? I would say no, for two reasons. First of all, the 8 might not be giving her any extra outs. A 5 on the river gives her a straight, but it gives anyone with a 9 a higher straight. A 4 gives her a set, but also gives anyone with a 5 a straight. She probably has ways to win the hand, but cannot be sure which ones they are. Second, if she catches a card that makes her hand good, she's unlikely to get paid off. The board on the river will either be Q-7-6-8-5 or Q-7-6-8-4. Both look pretty scary. Either way, it's the type of situation in which she will get significant action only if she is beat.

Then, the river deuce ends up being no help. But at that point, the pot is so big that she probably feels forced to call, just in case the bettor has been bluffing all along. Of course, it's extremely unlikely that the bettor would bet from start to finish without being able to beat a pair of fours. Plus, one of the reasons the pot is so big is that she contributed to it on every round! So, now, the earlier ill-advised calls help lead to the bad decision on the river, and that's the progression that you want to try to avoid.

I'm not writing this column from a pure strategic standpoint. If I were, I'd be telling you to go cold turkey from peeling one off, since it certainly doesn't help your bankroll. But I understand that it's part of the fun of the game. You have a "feeling" that you're going to get the card you need on the turn, so you go for it. Although I don't advise it, I think it's relatively harmless to do it once in a while. Just make sure you don't do it every time, and don't stay in the hand if the turn card doesn't significantly help your hand. Otherwise, just like the chocolate lover who needs to go on a diet, you might have to take some time off from poker to recover from the losses you'll incur.

Matt can be found playing online at www.royalvegaspoker.com, where he is a member of its team of experts. You can find other articles of his in the Online Poker News, which is at www.cardplayer.com.