A Winning Mindset for Baseball

Now that April has passed in the young baseball season, it's time to back up just a little bit and gain some valuable perspective for the rest of the 2004 campaign. Much the same as in poker, you have a much better chance for long-term success if you go into each session with a solid, fundamental game plan to keep you on track.

Once April has ended and you then know each 2004 team a lot better, it's a terrific time "to get your mind right" for the long, everyday season. I have written before on these pages that it's important to have an open mind going into each year. You never really know which teams will be big surprises or big disappointments until each team has played several series both at home and on the road. Here's a checklist of what to look for:

1. New faces - Among other things, by May you'll know much more about each team's newcomers and will be able to judge whether they will make a season-long impact. A mediocre team that has successfully filled a key position or two in the off-season can become a good team.

2. Review each team's "little men" - The sluggers always get their names in the paper, but it's the little men (the first two hitters and the last two hitters in the lineup) who set the table. The eventual top pennant contenders usually have two or three guys who are always on base one way or another, making things doubly difficult for opposing pitchers when they have to face the "big boys." Most contenders also get good service out of their subs and role players.

3. Look for the pitchers who are healthy, in a groove, and throwing strikes - Some pitchers are notoriously slow starters, so don't overreact to a few bad outings until pitchers have been to the mound more than half a dozen times and have faced a few different opponents at home and on the road. Then, note the go-with pitchers and keep them in mind until they lose their good form. Many pitchers whose arms are hurting become hesitant to throw strikes and challenge hitters. Some youngsters can't throw strikes even when they try.

4. Note the good-fielding teams - These teams are not just the ones that commit few errors. A solid double-play combination, outfielders with speed and good throwing arms, and infielders with range and good hands make for good fielding teams that prevent extra base runners and help get pitchers out of jams. I remember one year during the Tommy Lasorda era of the Dodgers when Fernando Valenzuela had a good ERA (earned-run average), but couldn't keep his record above .500. The problem was that the Dodgers, despite a fairly good hitting lineup, were weak in the field: inconsistent at the double play, limited range at the corners, and slow in left field and right field, with weak throwing arms, to boot. Although Valenzuela's earned-run average was OK, he was giving up nearly one unearned run per game, constantly pitching in trouble, throwing too many pitches, and turning over too many base runners to his relievers. Valenzuela's ERA was deceiving.

5. Note the teams with good bullpens, especially a reliable closer - Remember, the odds in baseball are largely based on the starting pitching. But when you lay a price in a game, you're really betting on the starting pitcher plus the relievers. This has never been more true than in the 21st century, when so many multimillionaire starters go seven innings and then call it a night. Lack of a reliable bullpen hurt the Red Sox in general, and Pedro Martinez in particular, virtually all of last season, including their playoff with the Yankees.

Once you get this early-May assessment of the teams – regardless of the preseason expectations you had for them – you're set at least until the All-Star game break to review the baseball line each day, looking for the promising wagering situations. For me, they are the go-with teams and go-with pitchers at good odds (-160 or less) versus the inconsistent pitchers and/or flawed teams. Rest assured that you will find plenty of those situations along the way. And, in fact, if you stick just to the play on the field, and not how teams should be playing, you'll have more than a few underdogs. For the worst opponents (how bad was Detroit last year?), consider going against them on the runs line, laying 1.5 runs. This will further increase your opportunities for sound, quality, high-percentage wagers at good prices. Never be overly swayed by a team's or a player's reputation when that team or player is not producing on the field. Even the great Willie Mays had a hard time fielding at the end of his career.

In sports betting, as in poker (that's why I'm so fond of both of them), a good mindset, consistency, discipline, and money management are extremely important. It's not good to force matters. You must think clearly and wait for your high-percentage chances. They play the national anthem in sports (and deal the cards in poker) every day.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.