You Lose When You Make Too Many Mistakes!

Hi. Come on in. I picked up some "Homemade Lasagna" at the deli. I didn't ask in whose "home" it was made. The cook there has no sense of humor. Here's a bib and a fork. Dig in while we explore another dark corner of your poker mind.

When you make a correct decision at the poker table, you have made money, whether you win that hand or lose it. My students sometimes have difficulty grasping this concept. In fact, when I once tried to explain it several years ago, I messed it up myself by using the wrong numbers as input. I shall try again.

When you pick up a garbage starting hand and throw it away, you have made "a correct decision" not to play those cards, and thus have made a profit. Your profit is gained from the money you saved with your decision not to play with a negative expectation on that hand.

If you are still not grasping this idea at the core level of your inner being, I shall restate the following: "Play when you think you have a winner, and fold when you don't." It sounds too simple, but there it is.

You want proof? So, you're one of those doubters who is always wanting "proof." OK, let's play a simple game of tossing a coin.

All we need to get started is a coin and an agreement that if the coin comes up heads, I will pay you $1. If it comes up tails, you will pay me 50 cents. (I don't know why I would be foolish enough to enter into such an agreement, but for purposes of this "proof," I have.)

We further agree that the coin will be tossed a minimum of 25,000 times. Here's the first toss. It comes up tails. You pay me 50 cents. How much have you just won? I see by the look on your face that you are puzzled. I shall explain.

According to the agreement that we made, each time you win, you collect $1. Each time I win, I get 50 cents. With a minimum of 25,000 tosses, there is time for probability to work. The coin should come up about an equal number of times for heads and tails. Therefore, on each toss of the coin, you have a positive expectation of 25 cents.

I see another puzzled look. Let's run some numbers: 25,000 tosses. Heads comes up 12,500 times; I give you $12,500. Tails comes up 12,500 times; you give me $6,250. Subtracting the $6,250 you gave me from the $12,500 I gave you leaves you a profit of $6,250. Dividing $6,250 by 25,000 tosses gives us 25 cents per toss.

It doesn't matter what happens on each individual toss of the coin, as long as we don't change the agreement. You will continue to win 25 cents on each toss, whether it's heads or tails.

Ah, yes, the puzzled look is gone. The inner core of your being has grasped the concept. This demonstration shows that if you are on the "right side" of a wager (that is, you have a positive expectation on that wager), you will make money in the long run. Trust me, it all comes down to making proper decisions and the fewest mistakes. As all of my students know, the consistent winners at the poker table are the players who make the fewest mistakes.

More on mistakes: The "secret" to beating the game of poker today is contained in this phrase: "The first mistake is the costly one." You make money in poker from your opponents' mistakes. And you make the most profit from your opponents' first and biggest mistake – extremely bad starting-hand selection.

Having a winning or losing session is usually a matter of the difference between winning or losing just a few hands. So, play each hand as mistake-free as possible. Maintain your discipline. Don't make that first mistake – the bad choice of starting hands. Your poker fortunes rise and fall with the quality of the decisions you make – especially that first one.

You don't get lots of playable hands in a session, especially big hands. You have to play all hands as mistake-free as possible. That can come about only with continuing study and getting playing experience, which sharpens your judgment. I can't give you experience and judgment.

Just remember, it doesn't matter how well you can play, but how well you do play. Play solid poker, as mistake-free as possible, and you'll be a consistent winner.

That cook has no humor about him, but the lasagna he apparently prepares at "home" is very tasty. I now require repose. Wash your hands and face and kill the light on your way out.

Roy West, author of the bestseller 7 Card Stud, the Complete Course in Winning (available from Card Player), continues working on a hold'em curriculum in Las Vegas for both tourists and locals. Ladies are welcome. Call 1-800-548-6177, Ext. 03.