Maximizing Small-Stakes Hold'em Winnings - Part V

This is the fifth in a series of columns discussing hands in the new book Small Stakes Hold'em, published by Two Plus Two Publishing and authored by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth. The book targets experienced players who are trying to make a substantial income by playing in low-limit games. A number of hands have been selected from the book, and the format is to present the problem, the answer stated in the book, and then my thoughts. You may want to first try to answer the problem yourself before reading the book answer or my thoughts. Remember that all problems are based on a loose, low-limit game.

Hand No. 1: You have the A 10 in the big blind. Six players limp in, including the small blind. What should you do?

Book Answer: Raise. Your hand figures to win far more than its share against a big field. Again, many timid players dislike gambling with hands like this before the flop. They would check, planning to spring to life on a favorable flop. That strategy is profitable, but it is less profitable than raising now. A big suited ace is a terrific hand in a sevenhanded pot. Expect to win significantly more often than the 14 percent of the time that is your share against six opponents. Being out of position should make you somewhat less willing to raise, but not when you have such a strong hand. You must take advantage of an edge this big. In fact, not raising here is terrible. It might be a bigger mistake than raising with 7-2 offsuit!

My Thoughts: I would raise if I were on the button or in the cutoff seat with this hand against a large field of limping opponents. By doing so, I can control the hand better and maybe get a free card if I wish. The problem with raising in this situation is that there are many more unfavorable flops than favorable ones, and my position handicaps me. My most frequent improvement will be catching one pair (not necessarily top pair), and now I am in a marginal situation with a large pot, few outs, and bad position. Occasionally, someone will limp-reraise, thereby reducing the field and increasing my cost to play the hand. As an aside, a typical betting sequence in which you go all the way to the river will result in your putting in more than 14 percent of the money that ends up in the pot. This is due to the fact that not all of your preflop opponents will stay all the way to the river.

Here is a hypothetical example that illustrates how being in late position and making this raise versus being in the blind makes a difference between winning and losing a big pot. Suppose that after raising, everyone calls and the flop arrives with the J 7 2, leaving you with an overcard and a backdoor-flush draw. The small blind checks. Now what do you do? Assume that you check, rather than lead into six opponents with nothing. It is checked to one of the late-position players, who bets. The small blind folds. There are 15 bets in the pot and it costs you one bet (right now) to call. You have three outs with an ace, but will a top pair of aces with a mediocre kicker win the pot against five opponents? How much is your backdoor draw worth? Maybe one out? If you do the mental math discussed in the book, maybe you can come up with two effective outs, which is a 22.5-to-1 shot on the next card, and your pot odds are only 15-to-1. But if you hit your runner-runner flush, you will usually win a nice pot. So, do your implied odds make up for this shortfall? You have a tough decision to make.

Assume that you fold. Three other players call, so there are nine big bets in the pot. Now, the turn is the 3. It is checked to the flop bettor, who bets. One player calls. There are 11 big bets in the pot. The river is the 8, which would have given you the nuts. It is checked to the flop bettor, who bets, and his opponent calls. The flop bettor wins with J-10 while his opponent shows A-7. Now, replay this hand with you making this preflop raise from the button instead of from the blind. The most likely scenario is that everyone checks to you, the preflop raiser. Having nothing, you check and take a free card. Now, you go on to win a nice pot.

The point is that by raising when out of position with a hand that needs significant improvement to win, you place yourself in situations where you have trouble making good decisions. The idea that, preflop, a suited ace will win more than its "fair share" against a large field probably assumes that you get to see all the cards to the river, which will often not be the case. The way that a hand like this gets to realize "more than its fair share" is by having good position. In this way, the chance of seeing the turn and the river without getting bet out of the hand on the flop is increased.

Hand No. 2: You have the A 4 on the button. Three players limp in, as do you. The small blind raises. The big blind and everyone else calls. There are 12 small bets in the pot. The flop is K 5 2, giving you a gutshot-straight draw, an overcard, and the backdoor nut-flush draw. The small blind bets, the big blind calls, and the first limper raises. The other two limpers fold. What should you do?

Book Answer: Reraise. Individually, each of your draws is weak. Taken together, however, you have a relatively robust hand with decent winning chances.

Reraising has two important advantages over calling. First, if you reraise, the small blind might fold a better ace. Since he raised preflop, he could easily have a hand like A-Q or A-J. If he folds, it could buy you two more outs. Second, since you have the button, reraising could buy you a free card on the turn. If you do not improve, you should almost certainly take it if you get it. The player who raised this ragged flop most likely has a king. Do not expect him to fold. So, unless you are very unlikely to get a free card, you should probably invest the extra bet and reraise.

My Thoughts: You are getting 8-to-1 pot odds. Your gutshot is worth four outs. Your backdoor-flush draw is worth about one out. Your overcard is not worth three full outs, since top pair, weak kicker will not win all the time, so I would estimate an ace at about one out. This gives you a total of about six effective outs, which is about 7-to-1 on the next card. Therefore, you should not fold, and the choice is between calling and reraising.

The advantages cited for reraising seem miniscule and not worth the cost of the bet. What is the increase in expectation when you "buy two more outs" by having the small blind fold a better ace? First, what is the likelihood that he even has an ace? Suppose that he would raise from the small blind with a typical "under-the-gun" raising hand such as A-K, A-Q, A-J suited, K-Q suited, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or maybe 10-10. (As an aside, very few low-limit players raise from their blinds against a large field with A-Q offsuit). Given the cards showing, the probability is about 30 percent that he has A-Q or A-J suited. Second, two outs from 45 unseen cards is about 4 percent. So, overall, this is worth about 1 percent. On a pot this size, this equates to maybe 0.1-0.2 small bets. In a $4-$8 game, this would be worth about 60 cents. This drops to about 30 cents if we rule out A-Q offsuit.

Furthermore, when you reraise, you allow the raiser the opportunity to cap the betting, which he will do if he happens to be raising with something more than top pair. This further increases your cost of drawing and makes the prospect of getting a free card on the turn quite dim. Most likely, you will be folding on the turn.

Here is something else to think about relative to these two hands. Over time, your opponents will see you making these kinds of raises and reraises and not having a hand to show down. They will notice that you are frequently folding after having shown strength on earlier betting rounds. This means that your goal of eliminating opponents by raising in order to increase the likelihood of winning a hand will be compromised. It also may mean that your bluffs and semibluffs will not be as successful.

Jim Brier has co-authored a new book with Bob Ciaffone titled Middle Limit Holdem Poker. It is available through Card Player.