Home Dog Opportunities in College Hoops

The early part of the conference season in college basketball can be deceptive for many handicappers and, therefore, potentially profitable for sports bettors with the proper perspective. This can be particularly true when it comes to conference home underdogs.

In the first place, as a rule, the majority of people still prefer to bet on favorites. Psychologically, this is quite understandable. Most people prefer to risk their money on what they estimate to be the stronger team. Betting on the inferior team, even one with a good chance to win the game straight up or to keep the game tight, takes a little more experience, confidence, and sophistication. Second, pointspreads early in the conference campaign usually are reflective of the results of games in the pre-conference season, which often involve games against outclassed opponents or intersectional visitors. Many such final scores can become distorted if one of the teams gets an early advantage.

Most conference games, however, are a different animal. Many of the opposing players and coaches know each other through meetings in previous seasons. The points that came easily for a team hosting a minor conference opponent at home are not likely to come as easily in an early conference game on the road. Also, visitors generally get the worst of "the whistle" on the road, and their perimeter shooters aren't likely to hit their normal percentage. These are factors that handicappers can exploit, particularly when it comes to early-season conference home underdogs.

Coaches will tell you that winning early games on the conference road is a difficult task for all but the best of the best teams. And even those high-quality teams rarely enjoy a tipoff-to-buzzer cruise. When conference play is under way, the student body is generally in attendance in full force, with finals over, holiday trips completed, and classes again under way. Thus, the crowds tend to be more boisterous in favor of the home team and more intimidating for the visitor. This combination offers opportunities for handicappers who can spot capable home underdogs. Here are some things to look for:

Generally speaking, teams ranging from "C+" to "B+" in class tend to make the best home underdogs. Teams of the "D" and "C-" class are usually too flawed (that is, they have too many young and/or weak players) to stage a comeback when a superior team gets off to a fast start or to hang in all the way when a favored opponent stages a scoring run at a crucial stage of the second half. Also, teams in the "D" and "C-" class rarely get rabid home-court support.

Focused "A" opponents usually make the toughest "go-againsts" for home underdogs because they have the talent and depth to overcome the opposing team, to quiet the home crowd, and to potentially rally from a deficit. You might not want to take the home underdog against such teams, particularly if they're strong defensively and have a special motivation to win (for example, a loss in the conference tournament the previous season). However, make sure you're dealing with a genuine "A" team that is well-coached and properly focused, not a "name" team that is failing to live up to its reputation. Once an overrated team shows that it has problems winning on the road, don't hesitate to go against that vulnerable team until it posts a straight-up victory as a conference visitor.

Very often, oddsmakers and early bettors will keep the pointspread low on the best home underdogs. But, if you keep in mind that four points at home with a capable, well-coached team will probably "play" more like six points, you won't pass up such opportunities until you examine the favored team for any flaws.

A frequent scheduling situation can also set up some high-percentage home underdogs. Many conferences, especially in the West, have their teams play road games in pairs (Stanford and Cal visiting Arizona and Arizona State in the same trip, for example; then, vice versa later in the season). No host team likes to get swept at home, and no traveling team likes to lose both games on one trip. That's a real downer. If the traveling team gets fired up and wins the first game of its excursion, then takes on a home team that lost the first game of its pair, the pointspread on the ensuing game is likely to stay pretty firm if the visitor is the favorite. If the home underdog is capable, well-coached, and well-supported, you could have yourself a "situation." Such an underdog is likely to be a pretty determined aggregation in that second game, and is going to be doubly hard to beat, especially by any substantial margin, and especially by a group of college guys who are on the road and could be feeling pretty good about themselves after their win on the first game of their trip.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.