Plugging Some Leaks - Part V

We are now into the fifth part of this 10-part series on plugging leaks. In this series, I analyze (and try to fix) some common mistakes that especially the relatively inexperienced players are likely to make. In this column, I will discuss some common leaks in two of my favorite games – limit hold'em and pot-limit Omaha.

Leak No. 9: Failure to bluff on the river with a busted draw in limit hold'em

When a weak calling station, someone who is known to bet with good made hands only, holds the 10 9 and flops something like the 8 7 2, even he is usually not afraid to bet or raise on the flop with his premium draw. In fact, some of these weak players will even have the courage to bet again on the turn, even when that card was of no help to them. But on numerous occasions, I have seen players like this suddenly shut down on the river after having once again received no help, when a bluff would have had a fairly good chance of succeeding. Let's say that the final board is something like 8 7 2 2 3, with no flushes possible, and you are up against just one or two opponents. Because you have been betting all the way (representing a good made hand), and your opponents have been calling all the way (indicating that they may very well be drawing themselves), there is a fair chance that a bet on the river might win you the pot. But time and again I have seen players like this simply give it up on the river, only to lose to an ace high, king high, or even jack high, hands that never would have called the final bet. Remember, if you bet $20 into a $200 pot, your bluff doesn't have to win you the pot very often to still have a positive expectation. If you think you might win the pot more than one time in 10, you will be making money with your bet. With this specific board and the way the betting has gone, it should be clear that the chances of getting away with your bluff are far better than one time in 10.

In big-bet poker, this river bluff is even more of an issue, simply because you can put more pressure on your opponents. Not only will you be able to make your opponents fold a busted draw that beats your busted draw, you will also be able to make them throw away some good, but not great, made hands. If in pot-limit Omaha you bet the pot on the turn with a board of K-Q-J-6 and get called, and you think you are probably up against a set of kings, you might very well win the pot with a big bet if a blank comes on the river, simply because your betting on the previous streets has indicated that you may well have a straight. Of course, while a bluff on the river has a much better chance of success in big-bet poker than it does in limit poker, it is also much more expensive if it fails, so it pays to know your opponents. Some people can easily be bluffed out of a pot even when they hold a near-nut hand, while other players are simply incapable of folding even relatively marginal hands on the end, no matter how much you bet.

Leak No. 10: Failure to move in preflop with aces when playing a short stack in pot-limit Omaha

Let's say you are playing a $400 stack in a $10-$10 blinds pot-limit Omaha game. You are in the big blind with A-A-J-7 single-suited. There is a raise to $30, one caller, and now the button raises to $120. Quite a few players would be afraid to move in with their aces here, figuring that someone may easily make two pair or better, fearing that they may not be the only one holding aces, or thinking that it may be better to just flat-call and then move in after the flop, in order to protect their probably vulnerable hand. They are wrong. It is almost always correct to simply move in with the aces, for the following reasons:

• You've got the best hand preflop. By moving in now, you will reach the river regardless of the cards on the board. You are maximizing your wins because if you catch a good flop (say, an ace or three cards to your suited ace), you might not have gotten much action, while the money is in the pot already now. Also, you cannot get bluffed or semibluffed out of the pot if the flop is something scary like 6-5-4 of one suit that you don't have.

• Your opponent doesn't necessarily have aces; in fact, you may very well be the only one holding them. The button may simply be playing his position, or raising with something like K-K-X-X or A-K-Q-10. If by moving in you can get the pot heads up between you and the button, you will be in very good shape, especially if by chance he was playing big cards or high pairs, rather than something like 8-7-5-4 or 10-9-7-6.

• You will get some dead money into the pot by moving in. If the people who have invested $30 will fold to your reraise, you don't even have to win the pot 50 percent of the time to have a positive expectation.

• If you get called in more than one place, you may well get some protection after the flop. The hand that would have won on the end may actually get bet out of the pot on the flop because of a big bet by the third player, who wants to see the turn and river card for free, hoping to get lucky against the announced pair of aces of the all-in player (you).

• Even if your opponent indeed has the two remaining aces, folding is still no option, especially with your relatively small stack and the $10 blind money you've already put in. (Remember, even if your total expectation of the pot would be just $391, moving in would still be better than folding. After all, you will put in $390 more with an expected return of $391, or a profit of $1. This is despite the fact that you will lose $9 on the hand on average.) If you just call, you will almost always have to call after the flop as well, because of the tremendous odds you are getting. So, you shouldn't make things more difficult than they are; simply move in now. You get maximum value, you get it all in with the current best hand, you will reach the river regardless of the cards on the board, and you avoid giving your opponents any kind of implied odds. The only time when flat-calling might be better is when you are 100 percent certain that your opponent also has aces, and you want to try to make him lay down that hand after the flop by representing whatever dangerous cards come on the board. But for this to be successful, you will have to know for a fact that your opponent also has aces (which is not the case here), and the money has to be deep enough that folding after the flop will be a serious option for your opponent; once again, in this situation, this will probably not be the case.

There are some players who claim that under certain circumstances, it might not be worth it to move all in before the flop with A-A-X-X. Well, I am not one of them. I would say: Don't try to outthink yourself. By simply always moving in with aces whenever the possibility presents itself, you will be slightly wrong a very small percentage of the time, and you will be very right a large percentage of the time. Unless you've reached expert status already, you should simply do the obvious: Move in with the current best hand, and hope that it stands up. This is what I would do – so I guess it might work for you, too.