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A Great Play That Never Happened

'On-the-fly' thinking

by Matt Lessinger |  Published: May 23, 2007

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To become a top player, you must adapt to new information constantly, often in a matter of seconds. For example, you're ready to bet top pair on the turn, but suddenly the player to your left sighs loudly. Having played with him several times, you know that his sigh is a tell. He wants to appear frustrated at your forthcoming bet, but in reality he has a monster hand. You immediately go to Plan B - checking and folding when he bets. Some other player pays him off, and when he shows a set to take the pot, you can be proud, knowing that your observation and ability to adapt quickly saved you one or two big bets.
But sometimes those skills can accomplish even more. In the right situations, they can win you entire pots. The above example described a shift from betting to check-folding. One of my favorites, and one that can often score a major coup, is the shift from check-calling or check-folding to check-raising.

An "On-the-Fly" Check-Raise
That's what I call it when you make a check-raise that was not premeditated, but a change in circumstances made it worth attempting. For instance, you're playing limit hold'em, in early position, holding a busted draw on the river against multiple opponents. You intend to check and fold to any bet. But then the button is the one who bets, and for whatever reason, you strongly suspect that he's bluffing. The problem is that you have nothing but a busted draw, and probably can't beat him even if he's bluffing.

That's when the "on-the-fly" check-raise comes into play. Your initial plan was to give up, rather than fire a low-percentage bluff into multiple opponents. Instead, your odds have just gone up substantially. If you check-raise, there's a good chance that you can clear out the field and leave yourself heads up with a bluffer, who will fold to your check-raise.

Obviously, this play won't always work. It probably won't succeed even half the time. But if you have multiple opponents, there's a sizeable pot at stake, which means that the play doesn't have to succeed all that often for it to show a long-term profit, especially in limit hold'em. And in addition to the money you'll win, the on-the-fly check-raise is the type of play that can really build your poker confidence and make you feel invincible.

Another Example
I was in seat No. 10 in a very loose $10-$20 hold'em game. Seats No. 3 and No. 4 posted their blinds, and the action player in seat No. 5 put on a live straddle. Seats No. 6 and No. 9 limped in for the two bets, and I limped, as well, with the Q 10. Seat No. 2 then raised from the button, clearing out the small blind. Seat No. 4 called, and seat No. 5 capped it, which was practically meaningless. We all called the cap, so six of us saw the flop.

It came K J 4, not bad at all for my hand. Seat No. 4 led out from the big blind. Seat Nos. 5, 6, and 9 all called, and I put in a value-raise. I figured that one or more of the aces for my straight were probably gone, but I still had no problem building a bigger pot with my drawing hand. Seat No. 2 instantly called the two bets, and everyone else called rather quickly. The manner of their calls suggested that no one had a strong hand, but everyone had enough to stay involved in such a large pot.

The turn was the 6. Everyone checked to me, and I couldn't see any benefit to betting. With such a large pot and so many opponents, I wasn't going to win without making a hand. After I checked, seat No. 2 looked like he might want to bet, but he reconsidered and smacked the table; free card for everyone.

The river was the Q, for a final board of K J 4 6 Q. Check, check, check. This time, seat No. 9 seemed to think about betting, but he checked, as well. I checked, and now seat No. 2 fired. Everyone folded around to seat No. 9, who made an emphatic call. In other words, it was the type of call that seemed to be designed to discourage me from calling behind him. But there were 20 big bets in the pot when it came time for me to call, and the only hands I was truly worried about were A-10, A-Q, and Q-J. The way the hand had played out, it just seemed unlikely that anyone had a king. I suspected that I was probably beat, but I needed to have the best hand only 5 percent of the time to make calling correct, so I threw in my $20.

Seat No. 2 shook his head and said, "I don't think I can win," while turning over the A J for a lone pair of jacks. Seat No. 9 started to look upset as he turned over his Q 9, and when he saw that my Q 10 had him outkicked, he got up from the table in frustration. I had played with him many times before, and I knew that he wasn't frustrated because he lost. Rather, he was upset because he knew that he could have won. I knew it, as well, but I wasn't going to be the one to initiate that conversation. However, when he came back to the table, the first thing he did was whisper to me.

"I blew it," he said. "I could have won that pot." I nodded sympathetically, then he shook his head and continued: "I should have check-raised to get you out. You looked like you were ready to call, but I was hoping that my call would shut you out. I should have realized that with so many bets in the pot, you would overcall with any hand that beat queen-nine. But would you have overcalled two bets? Probably not."

"I know that it's not much comfort," I told him, "but for two bets, you probably would have gotten me out."

He shook his head again, and we played the next hand.

Final Comments
Seat No. 9's plan on the river was to check and hope for a free showdown. And if someone bet, he would call and hope that his pair of queens was good. That line of thinking was OK, except that he wasn't able to execute an on-the-fly check-raise in what was a perfect situation for one.

Sure, seat No. 2 could have had A-10 or some other big hand, and that would have made a check-raise from seat No. 9 seem like a waste of $40. But he was attempting to win $400, and there had to be a better than 10 percent chance that his pair of queens could beat seat No. 2. He needed to do whatever it took to protect his hand, especially if he suspected that I was prepared to call.

He realized his correct play a little too late. But there's no doubt about it - if he could have brought himself to check-raise, and consequently won the pot, it would have been one hell of a great play.

Matt Lessinger is the author of The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker, available everywhere. You can find other articles of his at www.CardPlayer.com.