In my last column, I discussed the many factors that should be taken into account when figuring poker odds. Here are some more situations that I think are often improperly analyzed:
1. This problem was sent to me by one of my poker students: "Last night in a tourney - final-table average chip count: $10,000 (10 players), blinds of $1,000-$2,000 - I am in the big blind and everyone senses the urge to push. I am not the short stack, because there are a couple of people with around $5,000. I have $12,500. A player in middle position with $11,000 in chips moves all in. Everyone folds and I look down and see pocket jacks. I sit a minute and think: (1) I really don't like J-J, but I don't think the player has a pair. (2) I know this player very well, and I am pretty sure she has A-K, A-Q, A-J, or A-10. (3) I know that my M (the number of rounds you can play before going broke if you fold every hand, determined by dividing your chip count by the cost per round, which includes the blinds plus the antes) is getting low and I need chips. (4) I figure that I am racing (53-47), but again, with my M low, I need chips. I call, and she flips over A-K offsuit. She misses the flop and turn, and rivers a king. So, were my thoughts wrong?"
Of course, I reassured my student that he had done the right thing in calling with his jacks, despite losing the pot. However, I am not happy with everything he said. For example, when I am in a tournament in which the blinds go up rapidly and most of the players, including myself, are struggling, I would be overjoyed to get a chance to make a stand on pocket jacks. In the given situation, I do not agree with putting an opponent who has five or six times the big blind on a strong ace when he goes all in. Even though there are other players with shorter stacks than the player who went all in, even a fairly conservative player is likely to go all in on most pairs, plus a hand like K-Q or any suited ace.
I have seen some players who think a situation like this is a close decision, but it is not. The odds are overwhelming that your jacks will be the best hand. (I also will mention that you already have $2,000 in the pot, but it would not be a close decision even without that extra incentive to play.) Here is why the math of this situation is far different than most people think.
First, the opponent may be making her play on a hand that's weaker than what you believe to be the minimum requirement. The "normal" requirement, according to the writer, is a medium pair or big ace, but we all have seen a lot less of a hand, even from someone who had appeared to be playing conservatively up to that point.
Second, the normal play in this spot with a medium pair or big ace is to bet all of your money, but a big pair is more flexible, and may well not be played by simply going all in. Players with a big pair often either limp, hoping to induce a raise, or open with a small raise, looking for action. My opinion is that a pair bigger than jacks is going to be played in some way other than an all-in raise perhaps half the time. If so, this would mean that the chance of the all-in player having your jacks beat is only half the chance of her having been dealt that hand in the first place.
The bottom line is, someone who would think about folding two jacks in this particular situation does not understand tournament play, math odds, or both. If you are not going to enter the pot when you figure to be a solid favorite, you are not going to be a successful poker player.
2. Any estimate of whether a drawing hand should call when there is money left to bet needs to be based in part on whether there is a flush draw on the board, and whether you include it as part of your draw. A three-flush on an unpaired board will worry anyone who does not have a flush. If you are drawing to a flush and hit, it is harder to get paid off than if you had been drawing to a straight and hit. I prefer the straight draw in certain situations when there is also a flush draw on the board. When you hit the straight, you may get paid off by an opponent who puts you on a busted flush draw. If you make a bet after the possible flush arrives, there is a good chance of inducing a fold from a player who does not have the flush or a big card in the flush suit. This is especially true when you have the leverage of possible additional betting on the next round.
The big question when you are thinking about bluffing with the intention of representing a flush is whether your opponent himself is liable to have the flush. I have some suggestions for avoiding this disaster. First, do not try this stunt in a multihanded pot. Second, as is the case for all drawing hands, try to be acting after your opponent, so you can get a read. Third, a preflop raiser is more likely not to have the flush than a person who seems to have improved from the flop in some way.
An important point about the odds in drawing is that you should take into account the possibility of running a bluff if you do not hit. Here is an example of this: You are playing against a tight and cautious player who open-raises the pot from middle position. You call with the A
Q
from the button and are his only opponent. The flop comes K
10
2
, so all you have is a gutshot draw (and shaky overcard). Your opponent makes just a small bet on the flop, giving you the feeling that he has a hand that's either weaker or stronger than usual. You have a gutshot, plus a remote chance of winning by making a pair. However, a call is reasonable if you have a tight table image and the money is deep, because aside from the gutshot, there is the likelihood that he will put you on a king. Your intention is to try to run him out of the pot if he blinks with a check. Once again, you need to have a decent feel for the situation and your opponent's game to make this type of play work for you.
As you see, some draws are actually playable with the odds against you when there is an attractive added chance of robbing your opponent.
Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered from Card Player. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons: e-mail [email protected]. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert's Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.
