The following is a slightly modified excerpt from the "River Play" chapter of my forthcoming book, Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy. It deals with the subject of value-betting your hand on the river, but was edited to omit concepts introduced earlier in the book that require too much explanation.
Several texts offer accurate mathematical models regarding betting on the river, particularly when heads up. I would like to extend this topic beyond the mathematical, to the effect that your bet has on your opponent if you are heads up.
Consider that you bet on the river, and your opponent goes into a long study. Already, your bet has done a lot of good:
• Your opponent clearly thinks he has a tough decision to make, and may make the wrong one occasionally, or even frequently.
• Your opponent is wasting brain energy on this decision that he could have conserved if you had not bet.
There are other psychological benefits, as well. If your opponent folds, even correctly, you now create uncertainty in his mind by not showing your hand. Maybe you were bluffing. If you bet three or four times and win with no call, the suspicion grows deeper, even if you were simply betting the best hand. Now, when you bet the fifth time with a decent hand, you may get called by someone with a very weak hand who simply cannot stand it anymore and wants to look you up. My favorite thing to hear in poker is, "I know I'm beat, but I'm going to call you anyway." Of course, you need to keep track of your image, as you will not be able to bluff after several wins with no showdowns.
Even when you bet a marginal hand and lose, there is long-term value. Opponents who see you make marginal value-bets on the river are more likely to pay off your good hands, and if you play a solid game, you will be betting good hands most of the time. They will hope these are marginal bets, which may be all they can beat.
There is yet another consideration. People are conditioned to call on the river. They understand that their opponents will be bluffing some of the time, and they must call with any hand that can beat a bluff because of the price the pot is laying them. So, your value-bets will be called a surprising number of times by players who have almost nothing, hoping that you have absolutely nothing.
Clearly, you should not bet for value when the only hands that can call you must have you beat. In a game like limit hold'em, however, opponents are free to imagine all sorts of holdings or invent bluffs they can beat. The probability that you will be called only when you are beat goes down considerably. I have seen people who were trying to bluff get called and win the pot. You just never really know what an opponent might put you on, and with what hand he will decide that he just has to call.
Here are a couple of examples:
Hand No. 1: After a weak limper enters, a decent player who is also a very frequent bluffer raises. I have A-K and three-bet. Everyone folds back to the limper, who calls, as does the initial raiser. The flop is Q-8-3 rainbow. Both players check to me, and because I hate queens when holding A-K, and I can make a play later with position, I check it back. In general, I would bet here, and you should do it as well, but this a play I make for variation, and I happened to make it here. Now, an 8 comes on the turn, putting a second diamond on the board. The weak player checks, and the decent player bets. This means absolutely nothing, so I raise to get the limper out. That is a good idea, but it does not work, as, remarkably, he quickly calls two bets cold. The other guy calls, as well.
OK, what's happening? If the weak player had a queen, he would have led on the turn. If he had an 8, he would have reraised (or at least thought about it). Most likely he has picked up a diamond draw, and wants to see if he makes it (or he has quads, but I dismiss this).
The river is an offsuit 4. Both players check. Now, normally, I would check A-K here, as it is hard to believe that anyone can call with a worse hand. However, since someone might think I have represented a set of queens (and I would have played a set of queens this way), the weak player could lay down something like the 4
3
, which beats me. Also, the original raiser might lay down A-K, which would otherwise split the pot. I bet out so that no one will win or tie by accident.
The weak player folds, and the decent player calls. I show my A-K, and it wins. Actually, I thought it was likely to be the better hand of the two of us, but I did not think it would be if called. He shows A-10, and tells me that he "knew I had nothing." He also tells me that he should have raised. I agree (but do not tell him this), but I'm not sure that I would have folded to this raise, given what I think of his play. Of course, that's easier to say once I have seen his hand, but what hand could he have to check-raise the river after flat-calling my raise on the turn?
Hand No. 2: Four players (I am not in the hand) check the turn of a 10
10
6
4
board. The river card is the 9
, and the first player checks. The next player bets and gets two callers. The first player folds.
The bettor turns over pocket threes. They win! The first caller had pocket deuces and the overcaller had A-K (what was he thinking?). The folder now complains that she held a 4 and folded the best hand. She wonders how she could have made the second overcall. (She couldn't, of course).
Notice that the guy with pocket threes could not have won any other way, and he won the max - an amazing parlay.
I am not saying that you should bet 3-3 here. However, be aware that when you think nobody can call you who does not have you beat, you may be surprised at what some opponents think they can or should call with.
Conclusion: Value-betting the river can make a substantial difference in your profit. You will be surprised at the number of times you gain a bet that you are not now making, by betting a moderate hand and receiving a crying call, or even better, a curiosity call. Even when you get called and lose, you still gain the image of a player who is willing to "gamble," which in itself may gain you a few extra calls when you bet your better hands on the river. While it definitely has ups and downs, value-betting the river adds to your opponents' confusion while also adding money to your wallet.
Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his website at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].
