Pocket Kings

While attending the Cape Fear Regional Bridge Tournament (more than 1,500 bridge players) in Wilmington, North Carolina, I was invited to play in an 11-handed $100 buy-in hold'em tournament after one of the evening bridge sessions (prize money: $550, $350, $200). These one- or two-table poker tournaments have become very popular with bridge players lately, especially at bridge tournament sites where there are no nearby casinos.



I started out well by grabbing a few unwanted pots while half the players at the table were still busy with their free pizza and beer (provided by the host bridge organization). After we had been playing for about half an hour, I picked up pocket kings on the button. There was a raise, a call, and a small reraise to me.



It seemed like the perfect spot to go all in and either grab the pot or, more likely, get one or both of the raisers to call me. Another benefit of going all in or making a big reraise is that it tends to weed out soft-ace holders, who will fear competing against a "bigger" ace (such as A-K or A-Q). That would be critical if an ace came on the flop. And, medium to high pocket pairs usually fish in.



So, I pushed my stack. Both raisers called very quickly – and I soon saw why. They both had pocket aces! No king appeared, and they both split up most of my chips. By the way, having two opponents holding pocket aces against you is indeed very rare; it happens about once in 5,000 hands.



One of the most popular strategies in no-limit hold'em is to try to get one or more opponents all in with you when you hold pocket aces. And most of us are quite happy to try that with pocket kings, also. But, when you pick up pocket kings, what are the odds that someone else has pocket aces? And, what are the odds of someone with A-X hitting an ace on the board?



When you hold any two non-ace cards, one of nine opponents will hold pocket aces about once in 23 hands. So, although most players are quite willing to go for it when getting better than 20-to-1 odds, there are some rare occasions when it is correct to make the sensational laydown.



Holding pocket kings, you raise before the flop and get one or more callers. How often will the flop contain an ace (or more aces than kings)? Answer, about 20.7 percent of the time, according to Mike Caro's "Table of Misery," which also gives the likelihood of a "miserable" flop for all pocket-pair holdings. That means that about one time in five, there will be a miserable ace in the flop with no king, and you will probably have to fold to any big bet.



But if no ace flops, you normally will make a large bet or raise that's designed to take the pot right there and then – before risking any more cards coming, since your opponent is usually more likely to improve than you are. Make the bet large enough that your opponent would be getting bad odds if he calls.



If you go all in before the flop with pocket kings and get a caller who does not have pocket aces, you will win about 71 percent of the time against all A-X holdings (slightly less if suited). And you will win about 80 percent of the time against lower pocket pairs, and about 80 percent of the time or more over most other no-ace hands. If you do somehow lose with pocket kings to a lesser hand, you are certainly entitled to visit your local complaint department. Or, maybe there should be a website that charges a dollar to post a bad-beat story (perhaps badbeat.com).



Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in

international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.