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January 21st – You can value bet the river thinner when your opponent is going to get good pot odds.

One the most simple yet misunderstood concepts about betting when last to act is that when you are called you have to be good more than 50 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable. This does not mean that you have to be good more than 50 percent of the time. When you are called you have to be good more than 50 percent of the time and some situations dictate that your opponent will not call you will a lesser holding. These, of course, are the times not to bet when last to act.

One of the other concepts that relates to this is how pot odds are determined for you and your opponent. Let us look at a pot of $100. We are last to act on the river and the action has been checked to us. We decide to bet $50. We are risking $50 to win how much? A lot of people get confused and say $100 or $150. They do not understand that the money in the pot actually is not included in this question as we could just check back the river and win the $100. We in fact are risking $50 to win $50, which is why when we bet we have to be good more than 50 percent of the time when called in order for the bet to be profitable. Look at last action on the river as betting into a dry side pot. Any money that you are risking is only getting 1-to-1 odds. On the flip side of this however, our opponent is getting pot odds when he determines whether or not to call. If we bet $50 into a $100 pot he is faced with a decision of a $50 call to win $150, or 3-to-1. He only needs to be good here one time out of four (25 percent) of the time to make it a profitable call. So you, as the last position bettor, are only getting 1-to-1 on a bet on the river, yet your opponent is getting full pot odds. Can you see how we can actually make some really thin bets when last to act because of the pot odds that our opponent will be laid?

I played a hand at the Bicycle Casino last week that is a perfect example of this concept. We were playing $5-$10 with a mandatory $20 straddle, when I picked up 8-8 in the hijack and raised to $80 with a $3,000 stack. A very tight Asian woman called me from the button with $2,000 and a semi-active, older, but aware live pro three-bet to $320 from the big blind (BB), covering me. At the time I was really on the fence as to what to do. I thought that it was such a good spot to three-bet light, because as long as the BB could get through me, the woman is rarely ever calling heads up. I also knew that the live pro was capable of three-betting light, but thought that if I four-bet and got it in, I would be doing really bad against his calling range. He would also fold all of his bluffs. I thought then, with position, that my hand was too strong to fold getting just over 12-to-1 on the reraise sizing ($240 more to win $3000). I called. Surprisingly, the lady also called behind me. Pot $975. The flop came out Q 10 8 and I was loving life. The BB thought for a while and bombed out $740. I noticed that the lady behind me had very little interest in the hand.

Now, I am usually not an advocate of slow playing or trapping in live cash games but sometimes when the SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) is low, you do not really need to build a pot up with a raise to get all of the money in by the river. By calling, you sometimes can make your hand look weaker than it actually is and get people to continue on with lesser holdings. If I raise that particular board against a competent player — especially in a multiway spot — a lot of players would find a fold with K-K or even A-A. I did not want to give my opponent that opportunity, so I decided to just call. The lady did fold behind me and the pot was now $2,455 and I had a $1,940 left in my stack. The turn was the 9, bringing a backdoor club draw and my opponent took a long time and checked. I decided that it was very, very difficult for me to get value from one pair hands on this board and decided to check it back and continue to make it look like I was holding on with just a queen.

The 4 fell on the river completing the backdoor flush. The BB thought for a bit and bet $1,400. Obviously, I was never folding, as my hand was very under-represented. I was slightly afraid of a backdoor flush, but in reality, unless he checked a straight on the turn, there really only was A K as a combination or possibly A x if he was getting frisky with me preflop. The pot was $3,855, $1,400 for me to call. However, as I realized at the time, what if I was to shove? My opponent would be getting absurd pot odds — $5,795, $540 to call. Over 10-to-1. I figured that even if he was making a very thin value bet with A-A or K-K trying to get looked up by A-Q or K-Q, it would still be difficult for him to fold because he got himself so pot-committed. I did end up shoving, he called, and I was good.

This is great example of how being short at the river was a huge advantage for me. If I had had say $3,000 at the end facing a $1,400 bet, I probably would not have shoved versus a good player because when I am called I would not be good more than 50 percent of the time. But here, because I am so short he must call with a wider range of hands because his price from the pot is so much better. However, I am still only getting 1-to-1 on the extra $540, as if I was betting into a dry side pot. I could have just called, just like you can check behind on the river and go to showdown.

This concept also teaches us a lesson in river value bet sizing. Often times, but not always, the more money that goes into a pot, the stronger the showdown hands will be. So you will get into situations on the river where bigger bets will only be called by perceived strong holdings. I played a hand at the Bike during the WSOP Circuit that was a perfect example of this concept. We were playing $5-$10 uncapped and there was a bad player that constantly kept open limping from late position. I was in a great spot to his immediate left. In this particular hand, he open limped from the cutoff and I raised to $40 with A 9. Everyone else folded and he called.

The flop came out 10 8 3. He checked and I bet $60, he quickly called. The turn was the 4, he checked and I double-barreled for $175. He called after a long deliberation. The river was the 9 and he checked once again. For most people this would be an automatic check back. It looks like this guy has a ten or a busted draw and we have picked up a ton of showdown value against that range. However, what if we were able to bet an amount that when called we were still good more than 50 percent of the time? Then value betting would be correct, right? Of course. I figured that the guy did have a fair amount of tens in his range, but also thought that he looked at me as an aggro kid and that he might call me down light with a hand like J-9, A-8, 8-7, etcetera. But I wanted to size my bet where he would definitely call with those hands, and I wanted to avoid getting into a situation where he would only call with a ten. I decided to bet $125, giving him pot odds of $685-$125, or 6.5-to-1. He called pretty quickly and I was good.

You have to be careful, in these situations, however, with the amount that you bet. Let us say that when I bet over $300 he only calls me with a ten or better. Then betting that large amount is obviously not correct. River value bet sizing is all about finding that sweet spot where when you are called you are good more than 50 percent of the time. And, in a lot of situations, this directly relates to the pot odds that your opponents are getting laid. For a more in depth discussion of this, you can check out the Seat Open Podcast episodes 11 and 12 “River Value Bet Sizing.” ♠

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Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on twitter @barthanson. Check out his podcast “The Seat Open Podcast” on seatopenpoker.net and his video training site specifically for live No Limit players ­—CrushLivePoker.com. He also hosts Live at the Bike every Tuesday and Friday at 10:30 pm ET at LivettheBike.com