Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand No. 2

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. This article looks at hand No. 2.

Seat 1: 27,424
Seat 2: 90,631
Seat 4: 87,612
Seat 5: 152,064
Seat 6: 89,532 Button
Seat 7: 87,280
Seat 8: 93,374 Hero
Seat 9: 208,845

3,000-6,000 Blinds, 750 Ante

Setup: Seat 7 is a well-known player.

Preflop 9 7 (15,000): Seat 7 raises to 18,000.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

With this hand and this stack size, I would love to see a flop for free. If the stacks were deeper, I might be willing to call a raise, but with only 15 big blinds I will not call a raise of three times the big blind; even in position blind versus blind.

If an opponent with more than 20 big blinds raised, notably Seat 5 from the cutoff, I might consider reshoving all-in, given my fold equity and the damage it could do to his stack. Since Seat 7 has less than 15 big blinds, however, I never expect him to raise/fold from the small blind, thus reshoving with 9-7 suited would be a major spew. I fold.

Rizen

A case could be made for all three options: I could fold because I’m dealing with an effective stack of less than 15 big blinds effective stacks, and 9-7 suited is really a hand that plays better when the stacks are deeper.

I could call because I have position, a playable hand, and I am only playing against the small blind. I could even push because the small blind may well be weak and fold. Even if he calls, my hand is probably not dominated by his calling range. If called, I probably have 35-to-40 percent equity in the pot.

Based on my personal history I have with this player, I favor calling. He tends to call all-in shoves with weak hands in this type of situation. This lessens my fold equity. This player tends to play “fit or fold” postflop with stacks this size, so even if I miss the flop, I could still outplay him.

Apestyles

With effective stacks of 15 big blinds, I never call a preflop raise of three times the big blind with a speculative hand. With 15 big blinds, I want positive EV spots to open shove all-in, or I should resteal from loose openers with hands that have reasonable equity. By shoving or restealing, I am looking to maximize fold equity. If I call, then fold the flop, I eliminate my three-bet fold equity in future hands since anyone who raises will often have the right odds to call my three-bet with a wide variety of hands.

If I have a stack of at least 30 big blinds, I might call because of my positional advantage and the implied odds. But with 15 big blinds, I will have to fold on the flop too often to make a call profitable. Even when I hit a flop, I still may not win the pot. Folding preflop is best.

Action: You call.

Flop A A Q (42,000): Seat 7 bets 30,000.
What do you do?

PearlJammer

In this particular instance, however, I miss-clicked preflop and am forced to see the flop. I flop a nine-high flush draw on a paired board where my opponent may often have the ace, a queen, or at least a pair of nines or above, probably leaving me with nine outs.

My opponent bets 30,000, leaving himself with only about 38,500. His bet size is oddly large, given the board texture and the exact situation involving our short stacks. I doubt he would bet so big with an ace, yet I also highly doubt he will invest almost half his stack on the flop and fold. The fold equity I usually want when I shove all-in with a draw is virtually non-existent. However, because of the size of the pot, and because I have a stack of only 12 big blinds, I can’t fold a flush draw.

Rizen

I move all-in. My personal history with this player tells me that he will almost always make a continuation bet. This knowledge leads me to believe that my fold equity is higher than normal, and I also have nine outs to make a flush, if called.
Against most players, I would probably fold, due to the fact that the small blind has now committed over half his stack and most players would not usually fold here.

Apestyles

Assuming I did somehow click call preflop, I’m inclined to think Seat 7’s large bet of 71.5 percent of the pot, leaving himself 39,280, means he does not hold an ace. His bet seems designed to make me think that he will see the hand to the end. I don’t like his bet size with any of his range since I wouldn’t fold a queen or an ace, and probably wouldn’t fold K-J or K-T.

His large bet may have slightly more fold equity than a bet of 20,000, but not enough to justify the extra 10,000 risked as a bluff. If he does have a strong hand like an ace, he’d want to bet smaller to induce me to bluff. Unfortunately, hands like K J and K 10 are in his range, after making this sort of bet. Many players like to make these large committing bets with flush draws. Obviously, a higher flush draw is one of the worst hands I could be up against.

However, calling preflop with only 15 big blinds and then folding a flush draw because he might have a higher flush draw is just silly. Calling preflop with shallow stacks to fold when you hit a great flop is one of the surest ways to lose money in poker. There is some chance he might fold after making this bet, and I probably have nine outs, and almost definitely six, if called. Going all-in over his flop bet has to be the best play.

Matthew

One of the leaks that I have corrected in my own game from working with these guys is calling raises with too wide of a range with a stack size of 15-20 big blinds. My thinking used to be that if I hit something, I’d likely win the preflop bets as well as a continuation bet, making the small investment worth the risk. If I found myself outkicked, it wasn’t a big deal since I didn’t have a big stack to begin with. In certain situations you might defend with a hand like A-T or Q-J, but defending your blind with these stack sizes with connectors like 9-7 suited or 6-5 suited is a recipe for disaster.

All three have engrained in me that the primary reason for folding with these stack sizes is that it’s imperative to save my three-bet fold equity. Once you start calling raises and then folding the flop, you’ll soon find yourself in a situation where you have little three-bet fold equity and will be defenseless against raisers who act before you.

In the hand, I pushed all-in on the flop and Seat 7 folded. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, publisher of the Winning Poker Tournaments series.