It Ain’t About Luck!

“That guy has been hitting all afternoon,” my friend declared to me. “I’m going to stay the hell out of his way until he cools off,” he added.

And my friend was right; the fellow had been on a monster rush! Mr. Rush had chips all over the place, was hitting everything, connecting with longshot draws time and time again. Psychologically empowered by his rush, he was enjoying every minute and pressing his good fortune to the max. Playing every hand, raising preflop and firing at any and all flops, he had the table dazed and confused. Other players at the table, like my friend, were intimidated by Mr. Rush and avoided him.

My friend’s nature of thinking regarding superstitions concerning luck is prevalent around poker. And it’s not just restricted to situations like this. He, like many others, also plays looser with his “lucky dealers” and tighter with his “unlucky dealers.” Similarly, he won’t leave a winning seat when a better one is available and will leave a losing seat when it’s the best strategically positioned seat at the table. He’s always in search of the “hot” seat. And, of course, when he wins a large pot, he loosens up his starting hands considerably on the next hand.

He takes it even further. When low cards are “hitting,” he starts playing small cards. If eights have hit on several recent flops, he starts playing hands with eights that he normally wouldn’t play. My friend believes that by analyzing past random events he can predict future random events and therefore can create a big edge for himself.

Of course, he’s full of it! He’s not nearly that smart, nor are any of us. Past random events have no statistical impact on future random events. While past random events can and often do have a psychological impact on your opponents, they don’t change the odds any. If you flip a coin ten times in a row, and it’s heads every time, it’s still 50-50 to come up heads on the next flip.

And the same mathematical certainties apply to poker. A random card is a random card. Its statistical chance of coming is the same as its statistical chance of coming no matter what just happened. A card has no memory of what card(s) came before it and can’t tell you what cards are coming next. It doesn’t know what seat it is going to, nor does it even begin to distinguish who dealt it. It doesn’t even care if a cute dealer dealt it. It’s dumb as a rock, has zero recall and no perception whatsoever.

Distinctive runs of random events do change the dynamics of the game by affecting the psychology of its participants. One example is above; Mr. Rush widened his hand range significantly thinking he was in “lucky mode.” Other players might tighten up after a strong run of cards, either from thinking that they’re due to run bad or are psychologically averse to blowing back their win. And there are a multitude of other changes that can be related to players’ perceptions of luck.

How has running poorly affected your opponents mentally and emotionally? Are they on tilt, desperate to get even? Or have they descended into a psychological apprehension that has taken all the aggression out of them? Great players recognize these issues and make sound strategic adjustments based solely on their opponents’ psychological changes.

But great players are not great because they can time luck or find a lucky seat or play only when their lucky dealer is in the box. They’re great players because they know excellent strategies and have the capability to apply those strategies to the game independent of any psychological quirks. Great poker players are highly rational, intelligent creatures with solid emotional control. And if you want to be a great player, you need to focus your mental energy on learning those strategies and traits and disregard any notions and emotions regarding luck. Over time luck is a neutral actor and skill is the only difference between the winning and losing players. Focusing on luck will needlessly drain your mental and emotional energy and distract your focus from the correct strategies.

Yes, you’ll have good runs of poker and bad ones too! Some will occur over long periods of time. But you can’t change what the poker gods are going to deliver to you; it’s going to be what it’s going to be. And your poker game will be better served by focusing on what you can do something about, like how you should play your hand, like what you can learn from the current situation. Because if you just end up chasing luck, you’re going to find yourself thinking you’re unlucky. And you’re going to be wrong. In reality you just played crappy.

So keep in mind what I told my friend, “Poker ain’t about luck.” Of course, he looked at me like I was stone stupid! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @RealRoyCooke.