Play Pocket Jacks With Me

Certainly everyone agrees that one of the most “dangerous” hands at no-limit hold’em is pocket jacks. Although pocket jacks are the fourth best hand in head-to-head hold’em confrontations (behind A-A, K-K and Q-Q), bad beats do seem to occur much too frequently. Considerable skill and judgment is required to tread the fine line between “playing safe” (to avoid a big disaster) and “playing scared.”

Since pocket jacks (and also pocket queens) are more likely to win against fewer opponents, you should raise aggressively before the flop to narrow the field. You should probably not “trap” check with pocket jacks as you might with pocket aces or kings. Pocket jacks are really not good enough to make a big reraise before the flop unless you expect your opponent to fold. Even if you have the best hand before the flop, all too often you will have to fold after the flop.

Whenever you pick up pocket jacks, watch your opponents carefully and be prepared to have a thinking adventure. The amount you win or lose will depend mostly on the size of your first two bets. If you are not familiar with the basic head-to-head percentages for pocket jacks, see the last paragraph below.

After playing less than an hour in a $200 buy-in tournament in Atlantic City, you pick up pocket jacks in late seat. You are one of the chip leaders at your table with about 6,000 in chips. There are three callers plus the two blinds, 50 and 100, around to you.

You must raise in this position to narrow the competition. You would strongly prefer to fold hands with higher cards (which might flop a higher pair). And you would also like to fold the two players acting after you and thus gain last position. So how much would you raise here?

I put in the 100 and raised 333 more. Why the 333 “fancy bet” instead of 300 or 350? I have heard a theory that there are some psychological factors which makes folding a 333 bet more appealing to the human psyche. Maybe a 333 bet seems more precise or that you are toying with your opponents? Or maybe it has “nuisance” value because it requires more work to call (actually, I often use this same fancy bet when playing online poker because it is easier to type).

The little blind and two of the callers folded so there were now two opponents remaining. The flop came a Q-10-4 rainbow (three different suits). Both opponents respectfully checked around to me. What would you do here?

I carefully measured out a fancy 444 and pushed it into the pot. One folded, one called. The turn card was an eight. Your one remaining opponent checks to you. What would you do now? Note that a straight was now possible (for anyone holding a jack-nine) and that a nine on the river would give you a straight.

It seemed consistent to me to bet a fancy 555 here. The opponent slowly called. The last card was a seven. Now there were quite a few possible straights. Your opponent makes the usual slow check. Do you bet here?

Unless you feel that you have a really good read on your opponent, this would be a very dangerous time to try to “milk” more chips from your opponent — especially if he then makes a big raise to which you probably would have to fold.. And there is also some likelihood that he has a queen and has you beat. So I simply checked and was quite satisfied to net some 2000 plus chips when my pocket jacks beat his pocket nines.

So I survived holding pocket jacks one more time. Note that if anyone had raised either of my postflop bets, it probably would have been right to fold. Thus, each bet that I made might also be viewed as a “defensive bet,” that is, where you bet a relatively small amount because if you show signs of weakness and check, someone might bet a large amount.

One final observation. Whenever more than one opponent calls your preflop raise and there is one or more overcards on the flop, pocket jacks are no longer a favorite. You will usually try to brave it through; but, you must tread that fine line very carefully.

Summary of J-J Percentages

Any pocket pair is about an 81 percent favorite to win a head-to-head confrontation against a lower pocket pair. Accordingly, pocket jacks will win less than one time in five against a higher pocket pair. Pocket jacks are roughly a 54-to-57 percent favorite against two overcards (A-K, A-Q or K-Q) depending on the suits of the overcards. Pocket jacks will win roughly 70 percent of the time versus one overcard and a proximate undercard (example, K-10). ♠

Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.