Be Careful What You Wish For

Many times when playing hold'em, we start off with what might be termed "speculative hands." These are hands that in most cases aren't already strong enough to win without improvement. Realistically, any hand except A-A, K-K, and Q-Q will fall into the speculative category most of the time.

Yes, your J-J, 10-10, smaller pair, or even A-K will win some pots without improving, but these are exceptional results, rather than the rule. Most of the time when we enter a hold'em pot, our starting hand is going to need some help.

It's surprising, then, that many players heave their chips into most pots without any idea of what kind of flop they want. The money goes in with the hope of improving, but without much thought about how much improvement is enough, or what kind of improvement creates more trouble than it does equity.

Just for fun, I'm going to take you through a little game I play with myself when I am trying to get my limit hold'em skills sharp. The game would work almost as well with no-limit or pot-limit, but the answers to "what kind of flop is good" naturally change in those games. Playing the player, rather than the cards, is also more important there, at least until you reach very high stakes, so let's use limit hold'em as the example. I call my game "What's the best flop?"

The idea is to take different kinds of hold'em hands and write down several different flops for each. Each of the flops you propose should improve the starting hand you've selected, but ideally, each should also feature some kind of vulnerability. As you ponder your choices, you will engage in a valuable theoretical exercise that will probably help you when you play similar hands at the poker table.

Naturally, the starting hand and the possible flops aren't the only variables you'll need to take into account. Quite often the answer for "What's the best flop?" changes when you change the number of opponents your hand will be facing. When facing only one opponent, single pairs are often enough; when facing six, you often prefer a decent draw.

This is another element you can add to the exercise. In the sample hand I'm going to discuss below, I'm going to assume that four players are seeing the flop. You can try to see how my answer (or yours) might change if only two players (you and one opponent) saw the flop. Other variables you can consider include whether you brought your hand in for a raise or not, whether your opponent called or reraised, what kind of position you have, whether some of your opponents are in the blind, and so on.

These are exactly the kinds of variables you're considering when at the table playing for real money, but when you have the time to consider them in the abstract, you can sometimes make better decisions. Even if you can't – even if you need money pressure to force you to focus – the exercise may help you recognize what kinds of flops are likely to help what kinds of hands if you share your attempts with a friend whom you believe is near or above your skill level.

If you try to "play" on your own, recognize that there isn't much point served in creating a potential flop that's either the stone-cold nuts or worthless. In the example below, we examine flops for pocket eights. There wouldn't be much reason to consider the relative merits of flops like A-8-8 or 8-5-3. Those hands are so strong that there's no question about playing. The only questions that remain involve figuring out how to extract the maximum from your opponents. A flop of K-Q-J finishes off 8-8 so fast that it isn't worth your time, either.

Remember, the hand I'm about to discuss is merely an example of what can be a much wider preparatory exercise, and we are assuming three opponents (four players total). Because I think players can never get enough encouragement to play late-position hands, we're also going to assume you have the button. Consider how play might be different if you were first to act, or second. We're also going to assume you limped in for one bet, even though players who do a lot of limping are usually losing players. You can also see if you think your answer changes if you brought the hand in for a raise and got three callers.

Sample hand: 8 8; the potential flops are

(A) 9 7 6

(B) 5 4 3

© 10 9 8

(D) J 10 9

I hope you can see that each of these hands features different strengths.

With Hand "A," you've flopped an open-end straight draw, and the fact that you own two eights makes it much less likely that someone else might have one (resulting in a split pot when you hit). You also have something a bit better than second pair, and none of the cards on board are cards you can expect others to have in their hands. You have a decent chance of owning the best hand at the moment, and you have the best draw.

Hand "B" gives you an overpair to the board. Unless someone started with a better pocket pair, you almost certainly have the lead (there is a chance, of course, that someone could have started with a small pocket pair and now has a set, or that someone started with 7-6 or A-2; these are always dangers in unraised pots). The problem with having the lead here is that even if it is checked to you and you bet, you aren't likely to push out too many other players if they have any kind of playable hand. Your best hope is probably that someone else bets and you can raise, driving out overcard hands that could catch up to you.

Hand "C" looked great if you were watching as the dealer started to spread the flop: bingo, a set right off the bat. There's a very good chance you have the best hand at the moment. Unfortunately, there's also an extremely good chance that someone has a draw to beat you: You can't knock out someone who has a high heart. Because there are three hearts on board, you have a chance to knock out someone who has a jack or a 7. Nonetheless, this board will remain scary, and there's a decent chance that if you aren't beaten already, you will be beaten by the time the remaining community cards have been dealt.

Hand "D" gives you the worst possible pair – worse than anything on board. The cards seen on board match up well with the potential drawing hands or made hands that could be out. The best news is that you have an open-end straight draw, but unless you make it with a 7, you're probably in trouble, because a queen gives a better straight to anyone holding a king. There are also two diamonds out, and hopefully you remember the old adage about not drawing to a straight when someone else could be drawing to a flush. You're not going to be very happy with your hand if you make your straight with the 7 and get any kind of action when you bet.

OK … let's try looking at the answers "worst to first." I think most players can recognize fairly easily that choice "D" is the worst of the lot, and by a fairly wide margin. The hand has almost no value as it currently sits, and many times when you make your draw, you run into a better draw that made it. If I had pocket eights and saw this flop, my hand would go into the soup with almost no pressure.

Separating the other hands is a lot trickier, as reasonable arguments can be made for each. Nonetheless, I'm willing to offer a ranking. If you disagree, take the time to list your reasons explicitly, and see if anything changes when you change other variables.

The second-worst (or third-best, if you're an optimist) flop is "B," 5 4 3. You might be surprised, because the chances are so strong that you have the best hand at the moment. There are a few problems with this flop, though. First, because the pot was unraised, you have very little information about what your opponents might have. Most of the smaller pairs create a lot of danger (or near doom, if they've already made a set) for you.

The small connectors might already have two pair, or one pair and a straight draw. Because the overcards see the board as unlikely to have hit anyone, they are likely to hang around, and if you wind up facing three or four different overcards, you're not likely to be the winner come the finish line.

Perhaps most significant, though, is that you aren't likely to win a lot with this hand. The overcards may hang with you to see the turn, but if they miss, they're probably done. If the overcards don't hang with you, you might win the three limpers' bets, but that's it. It's hard to imagine this hand winning many big pots; when the action gets heavy, you're probably buried.

The second-best flop is "A," 9 7 6. Indeed, if this is the second best, it isn't by much, because this is an extremely strong flop. The overwhelming majority of the time, you will have flopped the best hand, best draw – and it's hard to argue with that. The only thing that keeps this hand from scoring best is that you don't rate to win many big pots with it unless you make the straight.

This is a connected board, and players holding high cards like K-Q aren't likely to be very interested in playing (and if they become interested in playing, you have to dodge silver bullets on the turn, at least). If you make the straight with a 10, you're vulnerable to higher straights or higher straight draws.

Nonetheless, best hand, best draw is hard to argue with, and if I were holding two eights, I'd consider this a fabulous flop.

The best flop is "C," 10 9 8. It's hard to argue with flopping a set, and there are certainly strong arguments in favor of this flop – I'd take it quite eagerly. You're crushing all the one-pair hands as well as the two-pair hands. There's a decent chance that you will get action, perhaps even a lot of action, from people holding a high heart; you might even run into a stubborn owner of a low heart. Heck, even someone holding the J might play this hand strongly, although he's almost certainly wrong to do so (again, the inadvisability of playing a straight draw while a flush draw is out).

Yes, you will get run down from behind occasionally, but not as often as you might think, because you retake the lead whenever the board pairs. Even if someone else started the hand with the A K (how this could have happened without a raise is another question), you're only a 2-1 underdog to win against the flopped flush. As anyone who has held lots of flushes can verify, the board pairs more often than many players think likely.

Perhaps the best argument in favor of Flop "C" is that you win so many big pots. You will get a lot of action from the drawing hands, and if they are foolish enough to keep giving lots of action when the board pairs on the turn, you're practically freerolling. Most of the time, the draws won't get there: They'll just pay you off on the turn and fold on the river (of course, every once in a while you'll run into someone who wants to bluff on the river, and it's nice to have a made hand then!).

Naturally, if some card like the J – or even any heart – hits the board on the turn, you have the option of calling (isn't late position grand?) to see if you can spike your full house, or letting the hand go if there isn't enough money in the pot to justify a call (as can happen if it's a bet and a raise to you).

If you want to argue that flop "A" is better, I'm not going to argue strongly: The choice between "A" and "C" is very, very close, and those other variables (position, number of opponents, was the hand raised, how hard or easy it is to play the hand correctly on later streets, and so on) can easily swing the answer. While I think my analysis is correct, the more important part of the lesson involves how you can simulate similar hands for yourself.

If you want another example, try out 7-6 against boards of 6-3-2, K-5-4, A-7-5, and J-8-5. Hopefully, you can think of many other examples, and develop practice problems that you and your friends (or people who might offer useful advice on posting forums) can work through. The more you learn about how certain hands tend to play into certain flops, the better the job you can do deciding whether to play those starting hands in the first place.