Let the Game Come to You

Now that we've concluded the first month of the 2003 football season, I want to offer a little solace and some advice for those of you who might have gotten off to a bad start in your football wagers.

If you've had success in football betting before, but you're not doing well now, the best thing I can do indirectly from afar (without being able to review your plays) is to encourage patience. And the best thing you can do is to avoid forcing your bets. In fact, you could do worse than have that tattooed (a temporary tattoo, of course) on the palm of your hand – "Never force a bet." Basketball and poker offer fine examples.

How often have you seen a good basketball player – one who is a proven scorer and a key to his team's chances – "force" shots when he is having a bad game. He might shoot when he's off balance, or when he's double- or triple-teamed, or he might take a difficult shot when a teammate is open for an easier one. During timeouts, or after the game, coaches or veteran teammates will try to help him by saying, "Let the game come to you." In other words, it's hard to win when you're pressing and not playing the game the right way.

The same thing is true in poker. Players who repeatedly try to win with inferior cards usually make things more difficult for themselves, not easier. To make matters worse, the good players at the table will quickly sense this impatience and/or desperation. Winning then becomes more difficult, not less. And the evening's loss becomes a major one, more difficult to recoup than a minor setback, which even the best players endure now and again.

Similarly, sports bettors also have to keep things in perspective. You can't win 'em all. Nobody's ever done it. But you can lose 'em all over any given period. Or, you can lose enough money to knock you out of action for the rest of the season if you're not careful.

Here's a little mind methodology if you've won before in football but aren't winning now.

Obviously, if you've won before, you know the game. But this is a new season. Players change. Teams change. Be sure you're not "locked in" to an outdated impression of a team or player. This is particularly true of quarterbacks, who can look awful for a few years while they work their way along the learning curve, but suddenly become remarkably productive when "the lights go on" and they find themselves surrounded by the right group of complementary players. It happens over and over again (see Tommy Maddox of 2002). Once the season is going, dump any preconceived notions you might have about a player or team. Make your judgments by what's happening on the field this year.

Be selective. The worse you're doing, the more choosy you should be. You should be making fewer wagers, not more. Let the game come to you. Even if you could hit a terrific winning percentage of 60 percent of your bets, you're not going to win every week, or every month, or even every year.

Review your basics. Don't repeatedly bet games at bad pointspreads. Don't "double up" or chase your money. Don't be dealing with lots of "exotic" wagers such as multiple-team teasers or parlays. (Heck, you can be right on two-thirds of the games in question and still lose the wager!) Cut the size of your wagers until you get back on track.

Check your balance. See if you've been taking too many favorites versus underdogs, too many big favorites or risky big underdogs, too many totals versus sides, and too many "overs" versus "unders."

Try to "get in tune" with the season. Here's something I've learned in my 20 years as a professional handicapper while charting, monitoring, analyzing, and conversing with other experts and would-be experts in the field. Eventually, everybody develops his own style of handicapping. Some might prefer to shade the underdogs, but they might be missing the boat some year if the favorites are romping every week. The reverse can be true if the dogs are "barking." Some might stick mostly to the colleges, others to the pros. Many people feel safer with home teams, but those handicappers can struggle if the visitors are getting the job done on the road. Some people love trends, some power ratings … I could go on and on.

In any one season, some styles will inevitably do better than others. The next season, the same handicapping style that succeeded big-time the year before might be hitting 40 percent.

If you're patient and flexible, if you get in tune with the season, and if you let the game come to you, there's still plenty of time to make the 2003 season a success.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.