It's a New Era

Poker has entered a new and extremely exciting era. Over the past year or so, the World Poker Tour and World Series of Poker have been seen by millions of TV viewers, and Chris Moneymaker has become a folk hero. An unprecedented number of new players started playing on the Internet; many of them now play in brick-and-mortar cardrooms, and more will play there every day. Poker books have become best sellers. And many games have become looser, more aggressive, and generally "juicier."

Many novices have no idea of how to play, and they have drawn the wrong conclusions from the TV programs. They have seen famous professionals make huge raises with utter trash, and – in one of the most watched hands of all time – saw Chris Moneymaker win the world championship with 5-4 offsuit. After seeing such moves on TV, they naturally conclude that they can win with any two cards.

They don't know that the plays they see on TV are carefully selected for their dramatic value. The routine plays – such as folding trash – are essential for long-term success, but they don't get shown. In addition, plays that make sense in shorthanded no-limit games are utterly ridiculous when playing limit poker at a full table. Some TV shows have warnings that amateurs should not try the wild stunts that professionals do on skateboards and motorcycles; the poker shows should have similar warnings about the wild moves they broadcast. The great players can make them occasionally, but amateurs should never try them.

There have always been clueless players and juicy games, but there have rarely been so many of them. Although these developments have made poker more profitable for skilled players, some of these players are frustrated. For example, you may have heard too many bad-beat stories because extremely loose games naturally produce horrendous beats. There is also grumbling that newcomers act out of turn, talk too much, play too slowly, and generally don't understand or follow the rules.

Although weak players put money into our pockets, some good players have viciously criticized them for playing foolishly. For example, a friend recently was beaten by someone who cold-called a raise on the flop with only a backdoor-flush draw. He went ballistic, called the other player "unconscious," and stormed out of the game. That same week, I pulled aside two other competent players to tell them to stop berating weak players. One even offered to bet that a terrible player would lose his substantial stack in two hours! His attack was inexcusable.

Countless writers have stated that we should never criticize mistakes because they are our primary source of profits. You may believe that brilliant plays are the key to your success, but your opponents' mistakes add much more to your bottom line. Every time someone plays trash, or calls a raise with a two-outer, or makes a negative expected value (EV) play, he increases your EV and long-term profits. So, let him enjoy the kick he gets when his mistakes win a pot. You're just loaning him the money, and he'll pay it back with usurious interest. I really shouldn't have to repeat these points, but I have rarely seen so many competent players assault weak players so bitterly.

Loose players (especially aggressive ones) lose lots of money, but they also increase variance. You will win fewer pots, but they will be much bigger. It's simple mathematics; the more players in a pot, the lower your chances of winning it, and the better hand you need to win. But, when you do win, the pots can be huge, more than enough to compensate you for your frustration.

With many loose players in your game, your win rate should increase, but your standard deviation may increase even more. You may therefore need a much bigger bankroll. If it is just barely large enough for your normal limits, you may have to move down. Of course, you don't want to do it, especially when the games are so soft, but it may be necessary. If you get sent to the rail, you can't make any money.

Since the games are changing, your strategy also must change. Of course, there always have been loose games, and Sklansky, Malmuth, I, and many others have suggested adjustments (pages 151-181 of the 21st Century Edition of Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players and pages 119-134 and 165-183 of my The Psychology of Poker). I'll briefly cover just a few of the most important corrections.

Most newcomers are loose, but they differ greatly on aggression. Against all loose players, you should make the following changes:

• Make winning the pot your first priority. In loose games, the pots quickly become so large that winning them must take priority over making them still larger (unless you have a monster hand).

• Bluff and steal blinds much less frequently. This point is obvious, yet it is often ignored. Since they are going to call you with almost anything, it is often silly to bluff and steal blinds.

• Don't get fancy. Fancy plays can't work because the novices are so oblivious that they don't know what you're doing or react the way you expect. Play solid, straightforward poker.

• Accept that high cards go way down in value and drawing hands go way up. The more players who enter a pot, the less chance you have to win with top pair, top kicker. Somebody will draw out on you most of the time. Against seven opponents, J-10 suited may be a better hand than A-K offsuit.

• Tighten up. When you see huge pots won with trash, it is natural to want to jump in with weaker hands than usual, but it is exactly the wrong thing to do. It's going to cost you lots of money to see the flop, then play out the hand. Don't start without good cards.

• Raise and reraise to isolate the LAP. Countless pots have been lost by people who did not play aggressively enough. They often insist that "nothing would force out those idiots," and they may be right. But some of the others will fold, and some of them would have drawn out on you. If that extra raise wins you only one big pot a night, it is more than justified.

• Check-raise more often. It is much less risky than usual because they will usually bet rather than check behind you. A check-raise increases the size of the pot and can knock out the other players, reducing the risk of drawouts.

• Invite them to bluff. They love to bluff. In fact, they often get a bigger kick from a successful bluff than from winning with the best hand. If you suspect they are weak, check, let them bluff, and then snap them off.

• Slow-play very big hands. Since they will get much better action than you do, let them build the pot, and then raise them on the river.

They are almost everyone's ideal opponents because they give too much action with weak hands but don't get much action with strong ones. If you can' beat loose-passive players, don't blame them for drawing out on you; take up chess.

• Play more hands than usual, especially draws. Since nearly everyone will call and hardly anyone will raise, you can see the flop in hold'em or fourth street in stud quite cheaply. If you hit, you might win a huge pot. If not, all you have lost is one small bet.

• Frequently bet or raise to increase the size of the pot, not to protect your hand. The inescapable fact is that you often can't protect your hand. Lots of LPP will call two bets almost as often as they will call one. However, since these loose calls have a negative EV, they increase your profits.

• Bet or raise with strong draws. Since the odds against making your hand are better than the odds you will get from all the callers, it pays to build the pot.

• If you bet or raise to get a free card and everyone gives it to you, take it! Barry Tanenbaum loves to make this point. Far too many players bet with the silly hope that everyone will fold. Since LPP will call, why bet? If you raised on the flop with a good draw, you had a positive EV. More people will call than the odds against making your hand. With only one card to come, a called bet usually has a negative EV; so, don't make it.

I could go on and on, but I've run out of space. The important points are to recognize that this new era will increase your variance and your frustration, but it will also increase your profits. Since poker is ultimately about winning money, relax, enjoy it, don't criticize, and adjust your game plan.

If you would like to learn more about yourself and other players, you can order Dr. Schoonmaker's book, The Psychology of Poker.