Bet With Johnny and Phil!

OK, this is the deal: Johnny Chan and I are betting $1,000 on whether or not six-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner Erik Seidel had me beat in a hand. Hellmuth vs. Chan, Chan vs. Hellmuth, nine WSOP bracelets vs. nine – choose a side. Read about all of the details of the hand and choose a side. Then, step up to the plate and bet it with your friends!

Erik has assured me that he won't let anyone else know what he had until after Nov. 15, but be careful how much you bet, because Erik has told exactly one person (Andy Bloch). The reality is that Erik wouldn't tell any of us if it weren't for the fact that the hand will appear on a Travel Channel broadcast of the Taj Mahal's United States Poker Championship at the beginning of 2004. Erik doesn't like to give away any information about his play.

With three players left in the championship, Toto Leonidas was in seat No. 1, Erik Seidel was in seat No. 2, and I was in seat No. 3. With the blinds at $10,000-$20,000, Erik made it $55,000 to go from the small blind, and I looked down to see A-8 offsuit in the big blind. I studied Erik, and immediately sensed strength.

My options at this point were to call, reraise, or fold. Because I sensed strength, I decided that reraising here was a bad move. Calling seemed reasonable, but folding just seemed too tight to me. I mean, folding A-8 here didn't seem like the proper play to me; therefore, I called the $35,000 raise.

The flop was A-J-10, and Erik bet out $70,000; I called. On fourth street, a deuce came, for a board of A-J-10-2, and Erik bet out $155,000; I studied for a minute and called. The last card was a 6, and Erik bet out $200,000; I studied for a long time, and finally, I folded. I folded because I thought Erik had A-Q, but he more likely had A-J, A-10, or a set.

Johnny Chan said, "You called and hit your best card; I would have just said, 'the heck with it,' and called the $200,000." To further make a case for Chan's side, I first have to say that I had already folded A-K before the flop against Toto's A-Q, and Q-Q on fourth street to Toto's Q-J bluff with the board 8-7-2-K. Second, Erik is absolutely fearless; because of this, he is capable of making a big bluff. Third, Erik did sense weakness in me before the flop and on fourth street. After all, I hesitated before calling his bets on those two rounds of betting, because I sensed strength in him. The fourth point for Chan's side is that Erik saw that I could be bluffed, when he watched Toto bluff me twice before.

As for my side, I don't believe Erik would have fired the last bullet (made the last bet) of $200,000 if he didn't have me beat. In the WSOP this year, Erik bet out at me numerous times when bluffing, but always before the flop, on the flop, and on fourth street. He never bluffed on the river. I folded because I thought I was beat, and my read has been very good to me for a long time.

This much is crystal clear: If I had called Erik and won, he would have been left with less than $300,000 in chips and I would have had well over $1 million in chips. If I had called and lost, I would have had less than $200,000 and Erik would have had more than $1 million.

By folding, I still had around $400,000, and a good chance, in my estimation, of still being able to win the tournament. If I find out that Chan was right and Erik was bluffing, I'll really be ticked off, as I pride myself on the fact that I make lots of good reads, and I already had made two bad reads against Toto earlier. To be bluffed three times by these guys would be painful to contemplate, although I don't mind being bluffed in one of the three hands.

What's it going to be, boys and girls – are you going to side with Chan or Hellmuth? Did Erik have the goods or not? In my next column, Erik will tell the world what he had, and will write about the hand. It wouldn't surprise me too much if Erik was bluffing with K-10 or Q-J, or had a hand like A-J, A-6, A-2, or even the hand I put him on, A-Q.

I hope you enjoyed this Hand of the Week. Good luck playing your hands this week.

Editor's note: Phil's book, Play Poker Like the Pros, is available through Card Player. At philhellmuth.com, you can learn more about Phil and read more Hand of the Week columns. Play poker with Phil – or chat with him – at UltimateBet.com's low-stakes tables.