Guiding Rules Regarding Injuries

We're at the stage of the football season where injuries can become an increasingly influential factor. And in my nearly 30 years of handicapping, it is my experience that dealing with football injuries is still something that mystifies many people. In fact, I could go on and on, well beyond this column, in discussing of injuries and how they are interpreted and misinterpreted by sports bettors. I'm going to jam a few of the more useful concepts into this space. Here goes:

1. Most bettors tend to overreact to injuries. In my opinion, there aren't that many individual players whose absence or presence in a game should be the determining factor in your wager. Remember, every player has a backup, many of whom are very good, and some who are not. It's good to know which is which. Thurman Thomas' backup at Oklahoma State was Barry Sanders. Trent Green's backup with the Cardinals was Kurt Warner. Mike Vick's backup with the Falcons is Doug Johnson. See the difference?

2. Most teams with key injuries tend to play with a little more intensity. If the players know one of their best teammates is out, they all usually play with a little more focus and try a little harder. It's after a big, satisfying win without one of their stars that players are prone to letting up.

3. "Hurt" is not "out." It happens every week of the football season. A key player leaves a game on Saturday or Sunday due to injury. It gets reported in the media. Some TV and radio sportscasters who are sloppy in their choice of words start using the term "out" instead of "hurt." The viewer or listener begins to build a misconception. Remember, the vast majority of football players are young, strong men in their physical prime. Most are remarkable healers from the pounding they take. Treatment these days is excellent. A player described as "out" last Saturday or Sunday might be ready and raring to go by the ensuing Friday. I have even corrected doctors who are amateur handicappers for sloppily jumping from the words "injured" or "questionable" to "out." "Out" should mean "out of the game," and nothing else.

4. It's useful to separate the definitive injuries. Broken bones and surgeries nearly always mean players are out. "Questionable" is very indefinite, and can mean just about anything. In fact, the majority of the players who are questionable on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday end up playing on Saturday or Sunday.

5. The late information is usually the best information. As the coaches like to say, there's a difference between playing hurt and playing injured. Players who are listed as "questionable" early in the week are either OK, "out," or playing hurt by the time the game rolls around. This is the key information to find out when handicapping. And you usually have to dig a little bit for it in order to make it "useful."

6. Never bet a game just because of injuries. Football is among the most complex of team games, with dozens of players from each team participating. Just because one or two players are out doesn't mean a team can't win. There are lots of ways to win a football game. If a team's top passer is out, it can still run and defend. If the best runner is out, it might still be able to pass and defend. Injuries make up a key factor that should be considered, but before wagering on a game, you should have considered all of the other factors, as well.

7. A cluster of injuries at one or two positions on a team is usually the most damaging injury situation. Most good teams can withstand an injury, or maybe even two, in their offensive line, defensive line, or secondary. But, few teams can perform when those losses get to be three, four, or even five players in those units.

8. Consider the opposition. If a team with some key players out is facing a weak team, the injuries might not make any difference. The backups might very much relish their chance to play and contribute. If the opponent is very strong, the absence of key players could be crucial.

9. Consider the coach. Good coaches who have experience and motivational skills can usually rally their troops in the midst of adversity. It's their nature not to give up. Their strong egos allow them to view injuries as hurdles, not walls. Poor coaches with poor communication skills allow their disappointment in the loss of key players to filter down to their charges. Most teams take on the personality of their head coach. If a coach allows his team to be obviously fazed and distracted, that team might be a good "go against."

10. It's more often the case that an injured favorite has trouble covering than injured underdogs. Many times, it's tough enough for the favorite to cover the line even when it's healthy. Oddsmakers are usually somewhat slower in lowering the imposts on good teams with some injuries than they are on adding points to injured teams that are already underdogs.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.