Brief Encounter

Playing in the middle stages of a large (400-plus entrants) no-limit hold'em tournament, I was moved to a new table, where the only player with more chips than me was sitting on my right. After folding six straight hands, including my blinds, I was on the button and looking at the J 9. It was folded around to the chip leader, who paused briefly before acting. I thought to myself, if he folds, I will raise and try to grab the blinds.

But, he called the $100. In the few hands I had witnessed, he had raised before the flop twice, and one of those raises was with K-10 offsuit. So, I concluded it was unlikely that he had a good hand or even a low pair (with a low pair, he might have raised from late position), and it was quite likely that he was playing a speculative holding, such as low suited connectors.

Thus, if I raised and chased out one or both blinds, I would be a big favorite. If a high flop hit, I would proudly bet, since it would be presumed that I had high cards, and he would probably fold.

So, I made it $250 to go. The big blind called and the chip leader on my right called. The flop came 7 5 3. I liked the two hearts, but I was very wary of the three low cards. Either the big blind or the chip leader could be playing low cards, and might have hit a pair or better.

They both checked to me, but the chip leader checked very quickly. I had seen him check slowly with not-so-good cards on two previous hands. I had a feeling he might be planning to check-raise me.

My first inclination had been to make an after-the-flop measured bet of about $400. I had started the hand with about $3,500, and the chip leader had well over $4,000. If I bet $400 and he then raised me $1,000 or more, I would be getting bad calling odds on my flush draw.

There was $800 in the pot. Since I suspected that at least one of them might have a low pair, if I really wanted to win the pot, I should push in my whole stack. It was unlikely that either would call my big bet with a low pair. But, there was at least a slight chance that one of them had enough to call a big bet by me – supposedly made with a high pocket pair.

So, the only two options I was seriously considering at that point were checking and taking a free card or pushing in my stack and probably winning the $800 pot, but occasionally losing and biting the dust. I estimated that I would get called and lose no more than one time in eight.

Another factor to work into the equation was that if I got called and won, doubling up my chips at that point would more than double my chances of getting into the money. If one of them called with just a small pair, I would win the pot close to half the time; I would make a flush more than one-third of the time.

Perhaps unwisely, I pushed in my stack. The big blind folded without a second thought, but the chip leader agonized for a couple of minutes. It was very likely that he had a small pair. He asked the dealer to count my stack, and then played with his own chips. While he was doing this, I kept thinking to myself that maybe it wasn't worth it. Was it really good poker to risk everything for a mere $800 pot?

But, finally, he folded. So, I stacked up some chips. It was just another skirmish in the trenches – business as usual in no-limit hold'em. In retrospect, I slightly chided myself for taking on the chip leader. We all know that the more often you go all in, the more likely you are to lose.

It is generally much wiser to bully the smaller stacks with big all-in bets, because if they call and you lose, at least you are still in the event. However, the smaller the stack, the less they have to lose – and the desperate are even harder to bluff.