Suffering a Setback With a Set

It's great to flop a set in hold'em, but sometimes sets get sunk by a higher set or a lesser drawing hand. It's happened to even the best tournament players, and it happened to a reader who was playing a big no-limit hold'em tournament in Southern California. With five tables remaining and the blinds at $200-$400 in the championship event, Joe found himself on the button with pocket jacks. The final 18 players would be receiving a payday, and he had about $5,500 in tournament chips. "A wild player sitting in first position raised and made it $2,000 to go," Joe wrote in his e-mail. "He had developed a betting pattern that was easy to read. He would make a fairly large raise when he had nothing and a small raise when he had a high pocket pair or A-K. His crazy play had been holding up and he had about $10,000 in chips, since he seemed to always get there with trash hands."

What happened next is the crux of this story: "I called his $2,000 raise. The flop came K-Q-J rainbow, giving me a set of jacks. My loose opponent bet $1,000 and I came over the top of him, moving in with my remaining $3,500. He called and showed me a 10-9 offsuit. The board never paired and he won with the nut straight, sending me straight out the door."

Thinking the hand through after his untimely exit, Joe believes that he did something wrong, and lists two "better options" that he may have had: "(1) Just fold and keep attacking the smaller stacks like I had been doing to advance my chip position, or (2) Since I was sure he had a weak hand, I should've made a substantial raise, maybe even an all-in raise, before the flop to try to make him drop his hand." He goes on to ask, "How would you have played this hand before and after the flop, Tom?"

First of all, the worst possible option against this type of player is to flat-call. I don't like your call at all. In this scenario, calling costs you $2,000, leaving you with $3,500. In this case, you might as well just gamble with the rest of it and go all in. Why? Because you won't be in very good shape if you lose the hand. I also think that if you had raised all in, you would have had an excellent chance to move your opponent off his hand and cause him to release. Even a loose, aggressive player often will lay down a hand when he thinks he is clearly beaten.

Your true options were either to fold or to move all in. Since your opponent was a loose player and had made a substantial bet before the flop (and the information you gave me indicated that his hand probably was weak, not strong), the move-in bet would have been the superior play by far. When you move in, you don't have to second-guess yourself in the event he calls. If he calls an all-in raise with a 10-9 before the flop, he's even more of a maniac than you thought he was! But, by allowing him to see the flop at no additional cost to his stack, you gave him a chance to draw out on you – and indeed he did. Even though the flop seemed to be favorable for you, it in fact cost you a chance to cash in the tournament.

Remember that you have to play the player just as much as you have to play your hand, particularly in no-limit hold'em. One way to handle a wild player is to come over the top of him. Another way to handle a maniac is to simply get out of his way. But in your situation, two jacks is too tough a hand to either release or just call with, even against a wild, aggressive player. Therefore, I would've moved in on this player and tried to win the pot right there. That way, at least I would know that I had far the best of it and that he made a mistake by calling. As it turned out, you are the one who made the mistake. As T.J. Cloutier explains in our book Championship No-Limit & Pot-Limit Hold'em, tournament poker is a game of mistakes. So often, you can play perfect tournament strategy, then make one or two mistakes and be forced to head for the rail rather than the roses.

As this column goes to press, I may be battling it out with a set against a drawing hand in a big tournament somewhere. If all goes well and the maniacs don't prevail, I hope to meet you at the final table one day soon.

Author's note: Brad Daugherty, the first World Series champion to win $1 million, and I have just released Championship Satellite Strategy, which is designed to help you win your way into the next tournament you play. You can get it through Card Player or the Gambler's Book Shop, as well as online booksellers. Visit www.pokerbooks.com for complete information on the "Championship" series of poker books.