Another Set of Quick Notes

Fluctuations are a part of any poker game, and at times they can get quite severe. Many players would like to eliminate most of their swings and just win at the same rate all the time. Unfortunately, the problem with this is that bad players would then be forced to lose at the same rate all the time (and absolutely never win), and there would be no poker games.

On the other hand, it makes sense to fully understand which hands are prone to big fluctuations and which are not. In close situations, especially if your bankroll is small, it may be right to give up on some of them. Let's look at two examples.

Small or medium suited connectors: They can easily be big fluctuating hands. If you flop a draw and it gets there, you can win a very large pot. But sometimes it can be very expensive trying to get there, since putting two or three double-sized bets in on the turn in an attempt to make your 4-to-1 shot, while correct, can cost you lots of chips.

Small pairs: Many people think they are big fluctuating hands, but in reality they are not. The vast majority of the time, they will be played for one or sometimes two small bets, and then folded when you miss your set on the flop. It's only when you flop a set, and the preflop odds are 7.5-to-1 against, that you begin to play for big money. However, when this occurs, you are looking at a highly profitable situation that only rarely turns negative, and very few of us should ever object to a positive fluctuation.

Flopping a hand like a pair and a flush draw, or a flush draw with two large overcards, is simply great. You will often be the favorite to win the pot by the river, and thus should play your hand accordingly. When I hold one of these hands and an aggressive player has bet or raised, I'm usually willing to go another bet. If I'm not the favorite, I'm usually a close second.

On the other hand, this strategy may not be advisable against loose, passive players. That's because if there is a lot of action, your hand might be crippled. Someone else may have a higher flush draw, and something like a set or top two pair can be out. So, while these hands are nice, they are certainly situation-dependent.

Here's one other point: Even though hands like the 8 7 with a flop of Q 8 3 are terrific, they don't occur very often. So, if you don't play one of them as optimally as you should, it won't have much effect on your overall results.

Suppose you're in late position, or perhaps even last to act, with a medium-strength hand in a large multiway pot. To your surprise, instead of it being bet, it is checked to you. Should you bet and risk getting many callers or fall victim to a possible check-raise?

Let's get a little more specific. You start with 10-9 in a raised multiway pot. The flop is K-9-3 and everyone checks to you. Should you bet?

The answer is yes, and it's not even close, even though you might get trapped by the dreaded check-raise. The reason for this is that once the pot gets big, it's important to do everything you can to win it. Furthermore, in this spot, since no one bet before you, there is some chance your hand is the best. If your bet makes someone with one or two overcards to your hand or a small pair fold, and the turn card would have hit them, you come out way ahead. Once there are many bets out there, this needs to happen only a small percentage of the time to make the reward greater than the risk.

There's a good chance that I have read more poker books than anyone. I take my writing and publishing seriously, and reading all these books is part of what my responsibilities call for.

One thing that has struck me over the years is how incredibly conservative most hold'em authors are. Of course, there are exceptions, but I constantly read advice that has you folding when you should be calling or even raising, and otherwise playing much too timidly. This includes not calling any bets on the flop unless you have at least top pair, playing only nut-flush draws, folding a set on fourth street if there is a four-flush on board, folding all flush draws and open-end straight draws if there is a pair on board, and virtually never raising with A-K before the flop since it is a "drawing hand."

What's ironic is that much of this advice is coupled with play that is too loose before the flop. So, now you get the worst of both worlds.

By the way, getting back to play that is too timid, I see virtually no players whose strategies match what I frequently read. Sure, there are a few players who are too tight and too timid in spots, but not to the degree that these authors recommend. Furthermore, there are no good players who play like this, and live ones certainly don't. So, I wonder where their strategy advice comes from?