Momentum in No-Limit Hold'em

While playing in a no-limit hold'em tournament at the Tropicana in Atlantic City, I am one of three chip leaders at my table with more than $5,000.

In the small blind ($100) holding pocket threes, I call an additional $300 before-the-flop raise made by one of the other chip leaders. With three-way action, the flop comes 9-7-2 offsuit.

The before-the-flop raiser bets $500, and the next player folds. The bettor had frequently and consistently been raising with two big cards. What should I do?

I, with my tight image, raised $2,000. He thought a bit, and folded. If he had raised (or even breathed hard at me), I certainly would have folded. Several hands later, the same player I just beat won a big pot and surged into the lead with about $9,000 in chips.

Several hands after that, I picked up pocket sixes in late position. The same player made it $500 to go before the flop. I called, hoping to flop a 6. Heads up, the flop came 5-4-3, an excellent flop for me. He led with a $500 bet. What should I do?

This is the type of situation in which I might already be beat (by a higher pocket pair), or even more likely, a subsequent high card may come that will beat my sixes (this happens about one-fourth of the time) – if I let it happen. However, even if I am already beat, I have a reasonable chance of making a straight or trips. Normally, in this situation, I would make a large raise or push in my stack.

But, in view of the recent transaction, I decided to simply raise the same $2,000. He thought a bit, and called. That's not good, I thought – but at least I had position.

A queen turned, and he checked to me. He might have hit the queen. I briefly considered pushing in my stack, which would be fine if he folded or great if he called and I hit (but his call might be with a higher pair). Since I would beat a higher pair a little less than one-fourth of the time (10 out of 44 cards, assuming he had two cards I didn't need), I decided that risking his hitting a high pair on the last card was much less risky than betting big and losing. So, I checked.

The last card was a 10. He again checked. I welcomed the check and tabled my sixes. He showed an A-K – so my pocket sixes won, making me the chip leader at our table.

Several hands later, the same player made it $500 to go on my big blind. I held the Q J and called, as did the small blind.

With three-way action, the flop came A 9 4.

He bet his usual after-the-flop $500. The small blind folded. I thought about making my "usual" $2,000 raise, but only because of my previous momentum. But since I generally prefer to sit on my chip-leading stack (and gamble only with the "extra"), I just called. Lo and behold, the 7 hit the table. What should I bet in this situation?

Why not bet the usual $2,000? I carefully counted it out.

As soon as my last chip entered the pot, he reared back and pushed the remainder of his stack at me (raising about $4,000). If he had K-X of hearts, he would have me beat. Of course, I had to call.

We exposed our cards as the dealer turned the last card. It turned out that the last card was irrelevant, because he had raised with a mere A-Q(!), clearly overplaying his hand (I thought that he would probably have at least a full house draw). Why did he go all in? He wasn't bluffing.

Once again, I noted to myself that sometimes opponents do not handle these momentum situations rationally. It is not that unusual for an opponent to lash out, as if in pain from earlier beats. Note the momentum principle that once you win (or lose) even one pot from a particular opponent where you have made a certain size bet, that bet becomes relevant in the psychology of your next encounter.