Some Basics of Baseball Betting

It's close to the middle of the summer, the time that baseball is king in major American sports. There's no football for another month, and that will be only preseason action. It's time to review some of the basics of betting baseball, which can be a rewarding experience for the knowledgeable. (Sports-betting veterans can skip the following, unless it brings up a concept you might not have tried.)

1. At prices from pick 'em to -130, just focus on picking the winner of the game, and not on the price. When betting football or basketball, everybody is familiar with laying 110-to-100. That's 5.5-to-5. Laying 130-to-100 on a baseball game is 6.5-to-5. The difference is not insignificant, but it is not substantial enough to distract your focus on finding all the edges to uncover the winning team. Obviously, the favorite doesn't always win such games. You will find enough underdogs in your basic handicapping of this group to focus on just trying to pick the winner.

2. At prices higher than -130, strongly review the chances of the underdog first. That doesn't mean you shouldn't bet the favorite, but the percentages can start working against you. One of the great things about betting baseball (vs. football and basketball) is that you can get more than a one-for-one return on your wager. You can pick fewer than 50 percent winners in baseball and still increase your bankroll.

But when the price goes above -130, I recommend examining the underdogs first. This is where you can often find good value in going with an ascending, underrated team or emerging pitcher. And you can go against a sagging, overrated team that's not playing up to expectation.

As this is being written, favorites in the National League have won only 56.3 percent of the time; American League favorites only 56.7 percent of the time. (Games with prices of -110 or less counted as "pick 'ems.") So, you must be increasingly aware of the percentages against you as the prices in baseball go up. You also must be aware that when a hot team or hot pitcher becomes the favorite of the public, the betting lines on such a team or pitcher will be made increasingly "puffy" by the oddsmakers.

If the favorite is hitting well and pitching well, has good momentum and a great chance to win, and its opponent is struggling, lay the price. But be selective. Don't be fooled by reputations. Always emphasize current form and performance. Finally, before you lay a hefty price, you might want to check to see if your team's key players are all healthy and that its "closer" in the bullpen is rested. The tougher the opponent, the more the favorite might need him.

3. If the price on a favorite is too high for your taste, consider the total. If your pitcher is dominant, the bullpen is strong, and the opponent is weak, you might want to take a look at the "under." If your team's offense is clicking, the weather is good, and the opposing starting pitcher and bullpen are weak, take a look at the "over." Using the total, you might be able to wager that your main predicted scenario for the game will occur at substantially lower odds than laying a very high price on the favorite.

4. When playing totals, beware of betting too many "overs." If a pitcher does not have an established reputation, or if a park has yielded lots of runs in several recent games, you can expect the posted total on a game to be "pricey" and offer little value. It could be time to pass on the "over," or even to consider the "under." For example, as this is being written late in May, only 46.6 percent of the games in each league this season have gone over the total.

5. Generally speaking, it takes "two to tango" for a game to go "over." Only a low percentage of games go over the total if each team in a game doesn't score a few runs.

6. If the price on a favorite you would like to play is too high, consider playing that team on the "runs line," laying 1.5 runs for a potential higher return. But be careful with this type of wager. Most good teams are good teams because they win the close ones. Also, this type of wager has become an increasingly popular option in Las Vegas, and many wagering establishments are using a bigger odds spread on the runs line, cutting down the return when they know there will be lots of runs-line action on a particular favorite. Runs-line bets tend to work best with teams that have explosive, "high variance" offenses, combined with an opposing starting pitcher that will end up being a "knockout," in the negative sense of the word. Very often, an early knockout means the worst, least-used pitcher in the opposing bullpen will be the first replacement on the mound. I don't consider laying 1.5 runs on the runs line unless the price on the favorite is higher than -160.

7. Avoid the temptation of getting involved with too many parlays. Yes, it's OK to consider an occasional parlay, because it's another way to get a return of greater than one for one on your money. Once again, you might not want to "complicate things" unless one of the teams is a pricey favorite of higher than -160. If you think you have a winner on a straight bet, don't screw with it by tying it to a riskier play. Avoid attempting too many parlays, or parlays involving more than two teams, before you are very experienced in this type of wagering. If you are not sure if you're experienced enough yet, you're not. And keep this in mind: Sportsbooks want you to bet lots of parlays involving lots of teams and lots of totals. The more, the better. And if sportsbooks like that kind of action, you shouldn't.

8. In most cases, the home-field advantage tends to diminish later in the season. There are many reasons for this. Teams are completely used to traveling. Rookies have been through the wars. Usually, teams have already played several games in each park. Home crowds tend to shrink for teams that are hopelessly out of the pennant race. The few very dominant home teams might still dominate at home, but for the rest, the home edge is smaller.

For more insights and advice on sports betting, subscribe to The Gold Sheet, or pick one up at your local newsstand, beginning with preseason football in August. We focus on team chemistry, insider reports, key statistics, pointspread trends, and our widely followed power ratings. If you haven't seen The Gold Sheet and would like to receive a complimentary sample copy with no obligation, just give us a call at (800) 798-GOLD (4653). You also can look us up on the web at www.goldsheet.com.