The Check-Raise Bluff

One of the most difficult skills to develop in limit Texas hold'em is knowing when to make a bold move. I define a "bold move" at the poker table as a decision that might appear reckless at first glance, but in fact has a certain degree of positive expectation. Positive expectation can be either financial (direct) or residual (indirect, by creating an unpredictable table image).

There's a right way and a wrong way to make a bold move in a poker game. Hyperaggressive players tend to make bold moves without any forethought. Then, they usually get called down by observant opponents and lose far more money than is necessary. But calculated aggression that's put to use in optimal circumstances – and combined with a strong table image – often puts opponents on the defensive and can be an effective strategy. This is even more so when opponents understand conventional strategic concepts and are disciplined enough to release hands of marginal value. A bold poker move may cause an opponent to fold a stronger hand – which means that you will win an extra pot that you certainly would not have won otherwise.

The boldest move you can make in limit hold'em is the check-raise bluff (and its partner – the check-raise semibluff). This tactic is used by many winning poker players. It doesn't mean that check-raise bluffing always works, only that the tactic may account for more wins than losses (in dollars) when it's applied sparingly. Even if unsuccessful, the check-raise bluff does have some commensurate benefits, since it contributes to an unpredictable table image and may increase the number of calls you will get when you do indeed hold a strong hand. Hence, it can be a win-win situation if used properly.

Oddly enough, up until now, the check-raise bluff has not been widely discussed in print. My view is that check-raise bluffing is a closely guarded "trade secret." It's well-known to high-limit players and serious middle-limit players, but is rarely utilized by novices or in low-limit games (with good reason). This means that the majority of poker players have no use for check-raise bluffing, rendering this tactic useless – except in the most competitive games.

The first requisite of check-raise bluffing is that it must only be used in games in which the stakes are consequential. In low-limit games, check-raise bluffing (and check-raise semibluffing, to a lesser extent) has almost no utilitarian value. Since opponents in "no-fold'em hold'em" games usually call bets on every round, no matter what conditions exist, the primary strength of the tactic (getting opponents to fold) is pointless. Similarly, check-raise bluffing has almost no value in games such as Omaha high-low. Most players will pursue draws and stay with hands no matter what the cost. They are not intimidated by a $4 raise. Based on my experience, check-raise bluffing should rarely be deployed in games lower than $10-$20 (and $20-$40, in some cases).

When applied properly, check-raise bluffing is a devastating counterstrategy to the standard concept of "tight but aggressive" hold'em play that is recommended by most respected poker theorists. It's an even better counterstrategy if your opponents are semidecent players, but tend to overvalue unsuited high cards (which is a common error that many players make). For example, if players are calling or raising with hands such as K-Q, small pairs, or weak aces (which is quite common in most $15-$30 and $20-$40 games, based on my observation), they will be hard-pressed to call a check-raise, even when they might hold a pair. Most (decent) players are reluctant to toss in an extra $30 or $40 with a weak hand, hoping they might catch a miracle river card. Sure, it happens (especially in California), but most players who play at this level do respect raises – or else they will be broke very quickly.

Let's look at a few check-raise bluff opportunities in a standard $20-$40 hold'em game:

Situation No. 1: You are in the big blind. Everyone folds around to the button, who raises in what may be an attempted steal of the blinds. You call (of course, reraising would also be an option). Knowing that your opponent will probably bet out on the flop, you check, and call his bet – even though the flop doesn't help your hand. Since the betting limits will double on the next round, check-raising is generally much more powerful (that is, more convincing) on the turn. If the flop comes with all low cards, or the board is paired, this is sometimes an even better opportunity for a check-raise bluff. If you check-raise on the turn, unless an opponent has top pair or better (or a draw to the nuts), he's probably going to throw his hand away. Some very tight players might even throw away an overpair, figuring you for two pair or a set. Obviously, the key will be your table image and the type of player you are up against.

Situation No. 2: You are in early position. Against one and perhaps two players, if a third suited card hits the board, or a running straight develops (J-10-9, for example), a check-raise bluff may be enough to win the pot. Be careful, though. Some players will be mistrustful, or will call with redraws (a high suited card or a draw to a higher straight). If used selectively, especially against a single opponent, the sight of a possible flush or straight will often be enough to win the money.

Now let's look at a few check-raise semibluff opportunities in a standard $20-$40 hold'em game:

Situation No. 1: You are in early position (or first to act). The flop comes all of one suit. You hold an ace of that suit. You check the flop and a player in late position bets. You call (you would have pot odds to call the bet, anyway). The turn is a total blank. You check. The player bets out again. Here, you might consider a check-raise semibluff, because most players will not call another bet unless they have the flush made already, or have a flush draw with a high card (perhaps the king or queen). Even if you are called, you still have about a 20 percent chance of completing the flush with one card to come. This works best against one opponent, and should rarely be attempted if there are two or more opponents in the hand.

Situation No. 2: You are in early position (or first to act). The flop comes with three connecting cards, such as 7-6-5 or 9-8-7. You hold one of the cards needed on an open end. (Another possibility would be if you hold an 8 and the flop is 9-7-6, giving you identical drawing odds.) Hence, eight cards will now fill the straight. If the turn card is a blank (or better yet, pairs the board), this is a potential check-raise semibluff opportunity. Since your raise might convince an opponent that you have the straight (or even a set or two pair), he very well may throw his hand away. This play is even more powerful if the player has raised preflop (usually an indication of high cards) and the board is made up of low cards.

A few words of caution: You must be aware of the type of player(s) you are up against in order for this to be successful. Check-raise bluffing (and semibluffing) should never be attempted against players you are not familiar with. You must also be aware of your own table image. If you are perceived to be a "tricky" player, there is no value in using this tactic. Finally, if the check-raise bluff fails and you are forced to show the bluff, you will probably have to readjust your thinking at the table and play a very solid (unimaginative) game from that point on. Most players have very long memories about bizarre plays, and you are sure to get called the next time you raise (except perhaps at the highest levels, where players will understand that you have adjusted your strategy based on image and table history).