Reading and Calculating

I was sweating a friend, a solid pro, who was playing in a nine-handed $30-$60 limit hold’em game at Bellagio.

The field folded to a player in middle position, who opened the pot with a raise and was called by the player to Mr. Solid’s immediate right. Two off the button, Mr. Solid peeked down to see the J J, and three-bet. The cutoff folded, and the button, a local player who plays well, four-bet. Both blinds folded, and the whole field called, including Mr. Solid.

With four players in the pot for $120 each, the flop came Q 9 4. The field checked to the four-bettor on the button, who wagered $30. Both players in front of Mr. Solid called. The pot was laying him $620-$30. He thought for a while, and mucked.

“I wouldn’t have done that,” I said, surprised that he had folded.

“It wouldn’t necessarily have been good if I hit,” Mr. Solid replied. “He easily could have three queens, and I’d be drawing dead.”

Q-Q was definitely within the four-bettor’s range, but so were other hands — hands against which Mr. Solid would have been in good shape.

In poker, you must blend all of the possible scenarios — the ones in which you are favored and the ones in which you are an underdog — in order to come up with an accurate price. It comes down to an exercise in reading hands.

Mr. Solid put the four-bettor on A-A, K-K, or Q-Q. Even assuming that to be correct, an analysis of the combinations of each possible hand would show that Mr. Solid would be a 4-1 favorite to be drawing live.

Other things improved the implied value of Mr. Solid’s situation. He was in the last position to call, and couldn’t be raised. He was in great position to check-raise the turn if he got lucky and hit his hand. He could catch a 10 and pick up value with an open-ender, creating an overlay on the turn.

Assuming that the A-A, K-K, Q-Q read was correct, the implied price that the pot was laying him was close.

And while his hand wouldn’t necessarily be good if he hit it, two jacks also wouldn’t necessarily be beat.

Were there other hands in the four-bettor’s range? Would he four-bet A-K from the button? Would he follow through and bet the flop? How would he play J-J and 10-10? Those hands were within the four-bettor’s range in this situation. Would he four-bet those hands and fire on the flop when checked to? I thought so.

I’m a pretty risk-averse guy, and am not one to get my chips in with the worst of it very often. Nonetheless, in this case, I’d have looked at a turn card.

The four-bettor played a pretty good game, leaning toward the aggressive side. He had a raise or fold mentality. Also, he was on the button and raising an aggressive late-position three-bettor, which were circumstances that would tend to widen his four-bet range. I felt that Mr. Solid’s read was too tight, and that the four-bettor would raise with a wider range than Mr. Solid was putting him on.

Drawing dead — as Mr. Solid would be doing if he were up against three queens — greatly affects the blended implied price of your hand. The money that you put into the pot has zero equity, and catching your card in such situations can be a real chip burner; there’s not much worse than drawing dead and getting there. It takes much in the way of overlays in your drawing-live scenarios to make up for the money that you put in when drawing dead.

Conversely, in large pots, the small chance that your hand may be good greatly increases the price that your draw is laying you. Many good players do not include the small chance that a hand might be good in their calculations.

In this particular situation, the four-bettor might have checked A-K on the turn if he received three callers on the flop.

As it turned out, the four-bettor bet the turn, and got a couple of callers. He bet again on the river, and the field folded. We never knew what he held.

Accurately reading hands and being able to put your opponents on a specific hand range influences your decisions. But you have to beware of outsmarting yourself.

Mr. Solid and I viewed the hand differently, based on the hand range that we assigned the four-bettor. If Mr. Solid had widened the four-bettor’s range, he would have come to a different conclusion.

That said, I have misread my share of hands, and wasn’t necessarily right on my read in this case. But because Mr. Solid and I think in these terms, it makes our poker decisions better, increases our expectation, and eventually improves our win rate. It also makes each hand a learning experience; you improve your game by thinking through every hand.

When at the table, even when you are not in the hand, watch how your opponents play, practice putting them on hand ranges, and practice gauging prices. Over time, your decisions will get better and better. And when you find that you can do that accurately, you’ll be stacking the chips!

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com.