Context Density

As we know, online poker plays many times faster than the real-world game. This accelerated pace of play creates a marvelous profit opportunity for those who understand the concept of context density.

Context density is a measure of the amount of information available within a given span of time; the more information, the higher the context density. In television, for example, a show on public TV has higher context density than a commercial broadcast, in which program content is interspersed with, and diluted by, commercials. In the poker realm, if you were trying to gather data on how a certain foe defends his big blinds, for example, and you went after this information in a 10-handed game, you’d have 10 percent context density, because he takes his big blind one hand out of 10. In a six-handed game, you’d get meaningful info on this subject one-sixth of the time. Heads up, your context density on just this one subject rises to 50 percent, because your foe has to take the big blind every other hand. That’s some thick context density. Thus, we say that patterns are easier to see when context is dense.

But the number of players at the table is not the only determining factor for context density. Basically, anything going on that’s not directly related to poker’s strategic considerations thins its context density. In real-world cardrooms and casinos, context is broad but not dense, because there’s lots of information floating around out there — betting tendencies, body language, facial expressions, attentiveness, and so on — but it’s spread out over time, and diluted by such information-poor irrelevancies as shuffling, dealing, pushing pots, rack fills, and idle chat, not to mention attractive distractions like football games and cocktail servers. Online, hands don’t just happen faster, they happen in an environment of very high context density, where the information stream is rich, deep, swift, and almost purely relevant. In this environment, we can detect trends in our opponents’ play and adapt quickly, with the information fresh in our minds. We don’t have to wait hours for certain exploitable situations to recur. Online, they may recur in mere moments.

Imagine that you’re playing online in a full ring game against, among others, “FriskyJoe,” who raises from middle position. You hold a bad ace in late position and don’t feel like getting involved in a reckless adventure against a foe you don’t know, so you fold. But you notice that FriskyJoe winds up showing down the 8 7, and you go to school on that, formulating the hypothesis that Joe likes to mix up his play by raising with medium suited connectors from middle position. In another lap or two, you see the same middle-position, medium-card raise, and consider your hypothesis confirmed. Now, you’re on the lookout. The next time that he makes that mid-lap raise, you can go to war with a wide range of hands, because you know that with a variety of overcard flops — whether you hit them or not — a bet from you will likely scare him off the pot.

Naturally, such information travels both ways. If you’re the one making the mid-orbit, medium-card raises, some of your opponents will get hip to your tricks. Interestingly, and thanks to online poker’s high context density, it’s your weakest opponents, not your strongest ones, who think they’re figuring you out.

Give an attentive poker player one look at a move and he’ll wonder what you’re up to. Show him the move again and he’ll form a postulate about the way that you play. The third time that you make the move, he’ll have a counterstrategy prepared (just as outlined above). You’ve followed this pattern yourself many times, I’m sure; for example, in defense of your blinds. The first time that a foe steals, you let him get away with it because you don’t know if he’s on a real hand or just a steal. The second time that he steals, you provisionally label him a blinds bully. The third time that he comes after your blind, you’re ready, and you play back at him. That’s why we say, the third time’s the adjustment.

Now, here’s the thing: In the real world, such a sequence may take an hour or more to play out. The context density is so thin that only the most acute and retentive players will accurately and attentively track the sequence and plan a response. Online, though, we whip through three laps in 10 minutes or less, and the speed at which situations recur allows even the most inattentive players to catch on — which is exactly what we want them to do.

In the real world, we have to worry about our best foes figuring us out and planning effective ripostes. After all, if they’re focused enough and smart enough to detect our trends, they’re also (possibly) focused enough and smart enough to anticipate our adjustments. Online, though, we can count on our worst foes having knee-jerk reactions to our play. They absorb our patterns without really understanding them or considering what adjustments we’ve got in store.

You attack a guy’s blind. He folds. Two minutes later, you attack it again. Again, he folds. Two minutes later, you attack again. This time, he’s ready to take a stand. Won’t he be in for a surprise when he reraises you and you reraise him right back? Sure, this requires some boldness on your part, but thanks to his third time’s the adjustment mindset, you can make the move with quite a lot of confidence. Remember, in adjusting to his adjustment, you’re responding to the countermove that you’ve actually primed him to make. It’s the pace of online play that makes such priming possible. In the real world, your weaker foes simply can’t retain these patterns long enough for you to use their flawed awareness against them. In other words, you can’t count on them to remember which mistakes you want them to make. Online, though, you can.

Here’s one other element of online play to consider: In the world of con artists (something I know a little about, having just released The California Roll, a novel on the subject), there’s something called rushing the mark. Rushing a mark is getting him so wound up and agitated that he reacts reflexively and unconsciously — to his own detriment, of course. We see the same phenomenon in online play, where the sheer pace of activity (especially among those playing multiple tables simultaneously) can cause small-minded foes to make very big mistakes.

The next time that you play online, give some thought to context density. Note which patterns of play your lesser foes become aware of, and see how you can use that awareness against them. If you do it right, you can actually train them to lose.

John Vorhaus is the author of the Killer Poker book series and the poker novel Under the Gun. He resides in cyberspace at radarenterprizes.com. Photo: Gerard Brewer.